Comments on: First Euro-election poll

By: Euro elections and the major parties..

Euro elections and the major parties.. — Wed, 13 May 2009 15:23:49 +0000

[...] it happening. Would it be seen as a failure of the Labour Gov if BNP get a large vote? Is that it? UK Polling Report First Euro-election poll suggests that Labour will come 2nd, but this poll was taken 4 months [...]

By: p

Thu, 30 Apr 2009 20:46:20 +0000

Utterly meaningless considering how important “regional” variations in voting are under this system. SNP will get 2 seats in Scotland (might sneak a 3rd) Labour should hope to get 2, Tories 1, Liberals???? probably one as well.

By: The use of direct action by UKIP. - Page 3

The use of direct action by UKIP. - Page 3 — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 09:14:47 +0000

[...] this is the report, so again, we’ll have to wait for the full tables to see if they were. UK Polling Report First Euro-election poll Niall I always post the truth. You may not agree with it but that’s [...]

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:07:53 +0000

Christian,

Your point would eb valid if there were differential turnout as between entire regions.

However, the point is that in 7 of the English regions there will be County Council elections in part-only of a larger region. Since the County Council elections will be in areas where Tories (and to a lesser extent, LDs) are stronger, while the urban areas where Labour is stronger will not have local elections, differential turnout could distort the results in those regions. This could be particulalrly true in the West Midlands, North West and Yorkshire.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:30:47 +0000

IF one is pondering how turnout is going to change in the european elections, its worth remembering that for several regions last time round there were all-postal pilots, which presumably aren’t being repeated this time around.

By: Christian Schmidt

Christian Schmidt — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 13:54:18 +0000

In fact, if one assumes that in a region which has locals at the same time the vote increases for all parties in that region, then differential turnout will change the UK-wide precentages (in favour of the party that is strongest in the regions with higher turnout) but not the number of seats for each party.

In other words, a UK-wide poll that correctly predicts the voting intentions of the voters across the UK and does not correct for differential turnout would get the percentage wrong but the seats right.

Christian

By: Christian Schmidt

Christian Schmidt — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 13:47:17 +0000

Paul,

I can’t follow your logic. Differential turnout makes no difference as the seats per region are fixed.

Christian

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 20:45:53 +0000

Tam / Peter,

FWIW, I predict that the Scottish result will be SNP/Lab/Con/LD in that order, but I am not (yet) going to stick my neck out on teh figures.

This could lead to either SNP 2; Lab 2; Con 1; LD 1 or SNP 3; Lab 2; Con 1 depending on whether LDs fall below 11% and how far above 30% SNP go.

Don’t think Tories could pick up the sixth seat. To do so they would need to have more than twice LD vote.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 20:42:09 +0000

If Brown had been hoping to bury bad County Council results under “improved” European Parliament results by having both on the same day, he may have badly miscalculated.

Of the 12 Euro regions, five have no County Council elections. In the other 7 regions (all in England) turnout is likely to be higher in those areas which do have County Councils than those that don’t. A cursory glance at the 2005 County Council election results – which took place on the same day as a General Election – confirms that these areas are – unsurprisingly – disproportionately Conservative. Thus, even if there had been no change in national party support since 2004, this would lead to Labour losing MEPs to the Tories. Given that, even though the Tories polled 4% more than Labour in the 2004 Euros, they were still well behind Labour in the national opinion polls at that time, it is hard to see how Labour could recover ground when they are now substantially behind in the national polls. Adding differential turnout to the mix could prove an electoral disaster for Labour in the European Parliament results.

While Labour may hope to draw some comfort from the fact that the reduction in seats from 78 to 72 would, on 2004 results, hurt both the Tories and LD more than Labour, the reality is that the high UKIP vote in 2004 is likely to collapse, returning predominantly to the Conservatives. (Even if Ken Clarke may be viewed as a “gift” to UKIP, this will not save them from falling below the threshold to win seats in many regions.)

The media will have fun for days after 4th June.

By: Tam

Tam — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 17:29:33 +0000

I agree with Peter cairns on this. if accurate (and as Peter says the figures are broadly in line with Scottish polls elsewhere), both the SNP and Labour should get two each. I’d predict the Conservatives will definitely get one seat (although the Scottish sample of the euro poll has them just behind the lib dems). The really interesting question is who gets seat number six – The SNP should be bullish about their chances of picking it up if they are polling at +35%, Lib dems are at c11% and the tories are in the mid-teens. Labour could also rally a bit a push the SNP all the way for top spot, thus creating a four-way battle for seat number 6. For tartan anoraks, this is going to be exciting!