Economic confidence on the wane again
Last month I put up a post that argued that the Labour recovery in recent months co-incided with a rather counter-intuitive increase in the proportion of people who thought the economy would be doing better in 6 months time, something that had emerged since the bank bailout in the Autumn. I speculated that, if bad economic news meant economic optimism fell again in 2009 it might also go hand in hand with Labour’s poll ratings.
Well, back then I used the Nationwide’s consumer confidence tracker, carried out by TNS. They’ve just released their latest data, and it shows people’s confidence about the economy in 6 months time falling again. If there is any correlation with how the government’s support is holding up (and it is, I hasten to add, only a hypothesis) then it doesn’t bode well for Labour support in the first voting intention polls of the year.
Filed under: Economy
Your hypothesis is about to be tested Anthony.
I’ve been wrong before, but I just don’t see Labour gaining anymore votes based on events since the last polls.
There has been none of the grandstanding and ’saving the world’ that saw Labour make massive gains into the Conservatives - it’s been the more sombre news of Woolies, Zavvi et al and the end of year news of nearly 16% off house prices in 2008. It’s not really a great platform for them.
Of course I could be wrong. but staying in the same place for them would probably be quite good news. If they can hold position as bad news comes in then it could well see the next piece of good news resulting in a Labour lead.
Since Brown has “saved the world” things can only get better. Meanwhile Tony Blair is quoted in the FT as having said “We had 10 years of record growth when I was PM. I have, unfortunately, come to the conclusion it was luck.”
I must admit that the last few days prior to Christmas and subsequent January sales seemed to point to a bit of a boost to retailers.
Such positive numbers may have lead to the ‘feel good factor’ increasing in some swing voters.
However, the most recent stats and general news coverage has been very negative indeed so overall I suspect a slight improvement in Tory standings at Labours expense in the coming polls.
If Anthony’s thesis on the ‘Economy feel good’/Labour vote share link is correct then I believe Labour should be back to mid 20’s by March.
All but the most hopeful of observers must now see a dire year ahead for UK Plc.
I strongly suspect you’re right, Anthony. Also, I expect Brown to start crumbling again as he comes under more fire and pressure. He’s not a man I’d want next to me in the trenches.
NBeale
The Ft also states that Tony Blair was making a joke.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7cccbcd0-db91-11dd-be53-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
These are interesting figures. Headline confidence down, spending confidence up. I know the prevailing mood here, and everywhere else it seems, is that the next year will be dire and the drip drip of bad news will destroy Labour, but I’m less certain. I think January 20th could be a key date. Economies stand or fall on confidence, and there are already signs that the US housing market is reviving after over 2 years of slump, and I don’t think we should underestimate the impact of a new president on the overall mood. Any recovery in the US housing market will lift credit markets globally, and if this is linked to a sense that ‘the worst is over’ the mood could turn rapidly.
A good indicator of the media narrative is the Debenhams sales figures today. Media reports this as a fall (bad news), but forgets to tell us that the rate of fall has slowed, profits are up, and Debenhams shares gained 30% on the news (good news). The FTSE has gained 20% since mid November - what does this mean? At some point the media story will change, and change quickly.
I suspect that just as economists failed dismally in their predictions for 2008, there will be some pretty red faces in 2009. The real problems will come later when we have to pay for all of this, but that’s going to be an arguement for the next election. How this plays politically will be fascinating, but I suspect circumstance will help Labour more than the Tories. Cameron did much better in more optimistic times, but he’s been wrong footed by Brown throughout the crisis, and there will be a window of oportunity before the bills come in but when the media will be saying it wasn’t as bad as we thought that Brown can exploit.
Alec: “Cameron…wrong footed by Brown throughout the crisis” ?? Surely if he had genuinely “wrong footed” Cameron Labour would be ahead in the polls, not consistantly behind? The idea that Brown can be seen to be having a degree of success when he is consistantly behind in the polls (in spite of massive media coverage) is a great compliment to the spinning skills of Mr Mandleson, and an indicator of the desperate delusional optimism of Brown supporters.
Alec may be right things don’t turn out as bad as feared. Thing is no one knows, it’s pure guesswork and this year more than any is unpredicatable to an unprecedented extent..
A broker yesterday came out predicting a rally in markets until Obama is inaugurated and that FTSE would then fall all the way back to 2700!!!
They don’t know either but it just shows how uncertain this year is…
I would argue that the increase in Labour’s polling was not as a consequence of the government’s action (and hence an increase in optimism) per se, but as a result of perceived inaction from the opposition. Given that the Conservatives have become slightly more vocal on the economy as well as the VAT reduction being referred to by independent commentators as ineffective, we may see the lead growing.
Will 2009 be better than people fear?
The trouble is, economic woes can become a self reinforcing spiral.
The economy has lost tens of thousands of jobs in the last thre months alone. Those people are out of work, have less money to spend, and represent a reduction in normal economic activity. Those companies that have gone bankrupt are no longer buying goods and services from other companies.
The immediate friends and families of the newly unemployed have had a real shock, and are more likely to worry about their own jobs, hence will spend less and tighten their belts.
And of course, the credit markets are still frozen - few mortgages, few business loans, very few loans to buy a new car or kitchen.
It is very hard to see how this will all suddenly bounce back in the next 6 - 9 months!
Alec - “and I don’t think we should underestimate the impact of a new president on the overall mood”
I agree, but remember the same will apply equally to the UK after a general election.
When is the next poll due for release, does anyone know?
I think Labour’s “bounce” is all over.
I look forward to the next V I polls and predict a significant increase in support for the conservatives. That will end all the speculation about Brown going for June 09 and by May 2010 he will be clinging to power in the face of an oncoming Tory landslide.
Well I hope so….I have put money on it
I don’t think it will be a landslide, certainly not on the scale of 1997 as the Conservatives have such a disadvantage before the first vote is even cast.
Where there confidence polls in 1982/3 and 96/97 when we had over 3m unemployed officially? Those doing OK or enough of them voted for the Government
Despite acknowledgement by everyone that the overall picture is bad ,people with mortgages particularly trackers are doing better and fuel is down in price.
Woolworths Zavi, Adams time had come in most peoples minds I talk to. (sympathetic to staff of course)
I think John is correct that closing was to an extent due to perceived Conservative poor response and that this perception may well improve as they are being more decisive. Voters seem to prefer (possibly wrong but) decisive positions from whichever party to wooliness.
The cons have a more coherent position now and are articulating better; whether Osborne and Cameron can react to any further changes better than last autumn will be significant in voter minds.
Should have typed 82/83 and 86/87 - Doh!
Jacker.
At the moment maybe not but if my economic expectations turn out to be correct, I think Labour are finished for another two decades.
In answer to Jim, I think it was difficult for Cameron and Osbourne (not that I have too much faith in the latter), last autumn.
Brown was being/acting positive and being in government was able to do what were perceived as positive things. Cameron could only jeer from the side lines and it was probably better to stay quiet in the circumstances for fear of just sounding like a party-pooper. People believed in what Brown was doing because they wanted to.
He will get his chance when Brown’s measures fail…..which they already look like they are doing.
I can’t wait for the next poll, which I think is due any day now
“and there are already signs that the US housing market is reviving after over 2 years of slump, and I don’t think we should underestimate the impact of a new president on the overall mood. Any recovery in the US housing market will lift credit markets globally, and if this is linked to a sense that ‘the worst is over’ the mood could turn rapidly.”
Actually and against all expectations the US housing market is now falling at an increasing rate. I wouldn’t get hopes up regarding Obama either.
The only way the economic mood is going is downwards. Expect a series of new crises to occur in the spring when it becomes apparant that the measures taken in the autumn have failed and that budget deficits are spiralling out of control.
Finally contributors on her are following my lead in POLL predictions in the coming weeks and months.
Sad to say - when the Conservatives finally take office - the country will no longer be the country we knew and loved - boarded up shops in the high street, half & unbuilt housing estates, queues at the dole offices, the Pound worth about half the value of the Euro, pubs shut almost everywhere, very few new cars on the road, people staying at home rather than going abroad for a holiday and the list goes on !!
Mike,
You left out “And the dead going unburied in the streets” and to be honest I half expected you to throw in prophecy of the odd biblical plague.
Oh and no annexation by the EU government, you must be mellowing in your dotage.
Peter.
Your correlation between economic sentiment and governing party support does seem to have a relationship.
For me the key factor will be the predictions in the PBR, which stated that the Government borrowing figures are based on the recession ending and us have positive growth in the 3rd quarter this year.
I thought that there was a change in sentiment when people saw the extent of the debt forecast.
Brown acknowledged that 2 years is more likely on Sunday in the Marr chat.
If this that happens then the huge amount of debt announced in the PBR is only a start and borrowing is likely to rise a great deal higher. This is what might finally scare the horses.
The Beeb and many other media outlets are doing a good job of shielding the people from the truth but I can’t see them Blairing this one.
Also all imported goods have from now on a 20% price increase due to exchange rates.
“the country we knew and loved - boarded up shops in the high street, half & unbuilt housing estates, queues at the dole offices,”
I remember it too Mike, only I didn’t love it as much as you did.
Mike,
I may have ‘followed your lead on the ‘POLL’ prediction’ but I can’t say the same for your view on the state of our economy in coming months.
The pound seems to have bounced a little recently and, with what is effetively a one-third reduction in our economys size already factored in by the markets, the downside on that front is now surely limited.
The problem with the kind of sentiment you express sometimes is that if people listened to you they would give up the will to vote for anyone at all! The will to live even!
I truely believe that things can change quite fast given proper leadership. This government has, I think, lost it’s way and a fresh team is required for sure.
In a few years time we’ll have a country we can all be proud to live in once again. Even you.
Alistair Darling has admitted in an FT interview today that the recession will last longer than previously forecast. He said that Britain is “far from through the recession” and that 2009 will be a “difficult” year.
Last November Darling predicted that Britain’s downturn would last no more than a year. In his latest interview he said that forecast was “based on the evidence we had at the time.”
So-Treasury forecasting as useless as ever!
Well if Anthony-and Alastair are right the Tory Poll lead will be on a steep upward curve just in time for the GE .
[...] Will Anthony’s thesis survive the January polls? Jan 7th, 2009 by Political Betting. UKPollingReport [...]
Colin - most forecasting is useless. The correct ones are due to luck more than anything. A further perusal of the FT will show you that new car registrations fell by 21.2% compared with last December’s. The forecast had been a fall of 35%. Business leaders put the discrepancy down to athe effect of the VAT cut.
Pollsters seem to have a much more accurate time than economic forecasters. People’s opinions are clearly more predictable than their spending habits.
John-thanks.
I think politicians around the world-of all political colours-are pretty much p*****g in the wind.
That much maligned phrase ” the recession will take it’s course” is so maligned because it contains a large element of truth.
Darling put it this way -last April.:-
“I suppose one analogy you might use is, you know, you imagine that someone’s eaten some bad food and they’ve got a dose of food poisoning. Some aspects of it just have to work their way through the system.”
Different words-same thing.Perhaps he found it easier to be honest back then?
Easy and honest look strange in the same piece that features the modern politician, unfortunately.
I do agree that there’s not much that can be done to affect the course of the downturn - the method of ameliorating the symptoms seems to be the subject of difference.
People who routinely quote the BBC or other media as biased one way or the other would do well to follow your example and read the FT for comparison.
Dunno what you’re all having a pop at Mike the Oracle for. He’s broadly right. We’re told that around 15% of highstreet shops are likely to go out of business and where I live - a gentrified leafy part of the city - there are certainly half-finished conversions and housing developments where all work has stopped while others, completed just before the meltdown, stand empty and unsold. There are loads and loads round here, and I assume it must be the same in many other parts of the country. Presumably the developers are going bust because no one is buying.
James - If the developers were going bust, the developments would be up for sale by the administrators, so you’ll be able to tell when they do go bust. In the meantime they are probably waiting, laying people off, and taking their indigestion pills like Colin and Darling said.
Mike is there for everyone to have a pop at (though it’s mostly a genial pop). He’s highly respected for fulfilling that role so brilliantly.
” the method of ameliorating the symptoms seems to be the subject of difference.”
Yes.
I feel a similar approach would be sensible on Global Warming-but that’s another story!
James,
They aren’t so much going bust because no-one is buying as not investing money into building properties which no one wants. Result: They pulled the plug and mothballed the sites.
Chris,
“For me the key factor will be the predictions in the PBR, which stated that the Government borrowing figures are based on the recession ending and us have positive growth in the 3rd quarter this year.”
The opposition benches laughed when he said it and they are still laughing now.
The whole statement was based around Pie in the Sky expectations……”I know, lets say we expect third quarter growth of……..that way it doesn’t look as bad”
@ JohnTT - the finished ones ARE up for sale. I don’t know whether by administrators or not because I haven’t enquired. They just sit there, unsold, month after month.
@ Armchair Critic - whether a particular developer goes bust or not is going to depend on whether or not it can afford to have large sums of money tied up in unsold properties for months or years. Some will be able to survive that; others won’t.
If the unfinished ones are up for sale, the developers are probably sunk.
Finished ones join the rest of the market - which is stagnant. Developers will have built in long potential “void” periods when doing their initial appraisals (or should have done). If they haven’t, they join the masses of imprudent so-called “wise” investors who knew what they were risking, but did it anyway.
It’s not like they were mis-sold dodgy mortgages by greedy brokers on the basis that their dole-check would cover the re-payments.
Off-plan for-sales of course are different - usually the development is only finished once enough sales have been guaranteed to cover the costs.
@ JohnTT - I’m not suggesting that they were mis-sold anything. But the reality is more business going bust, and the builders, carpenters, plumbers, electricians etc getting laid off with very little other work around to go to. Not to mention that all those empty developments with their blank windows and permanent For Sale signs contribute to a general atmosphere of stagnation and gloom.
James - no argument - we are in a deep, steep, fast recession, and the symptoms are as you describe.
Probably much more pronounced in those respects than the recessions we’ve experienced. Where Mike is provoking “pops” though is where he’s describing the recessions of the past as eras that we loved and long for again.
One of the biggest traps that Cameron could easily find himself in is the one clearly labelled “try telling the voters they were wrong to vote Labour in 97,01 and 05″ .
It would suggest that the Conservatives haven’t changed….and if they really haven’t changed and really do believe their old approach is better, then that begs the question: What is Cameron for? Why not bring in a more traditional Tory to cut taxes and privatise the BBC,NHS,etc.
If large numbers of people borrowed heavily to build or buy speculatively on the basis that already inflated property prices would continue to rise and got it wrong then we will see lots of businesses go to the wall and projects uncompleted or not started.
Equally if after a decade of debt driven growth credit dries up and confidence drains away as people baulk at the size of their debts then retailers and suppliers will go to the wall.
But if it hadn’t been for the boom we wouldn’t have enjoyed the growth and wealth it created.
But as to it all being Labours fault as Mike implies I am not so sure.
The Tories might be trying to pin the blame on Labour now, but for the majority of the last decade and more they have been cheer leaders for exactly the free market policies that got us here.
In addition the traditional Tory defence of being tough on state spending is somewhat diluted by the fact that the largest beneficiary of government spending by far has been health and the current Tory leader is one who said to huge conference applause that his priorities could be summed up in three letters N H S
In terms of backing the financial sector my party to an extent when that way two over building on Edinburgh’s success.
People may be distancing themselves from it now but the reality is that for the vast majority of the parties their members and the public the free market service lead boom of the last two decades was the only game in town and those who challenged it were mostly dismissed.
The hard truth is that the only way we could have avoided the hard years we now face would have been not to have had the good years we have had.
Having eaten our cake, we are now complaining that we can’t still have it. It’s a bit like jumping off a building and believing that you could fly instead of realising that you were falling.
Peter.
Come on next poll. I don’t think Britain is ruined, Recessions aren’t easy times. 18 years of Tory rule, were in my opinion much worse that these last 11 years of Labour but of course that is strictly my opinion.
any polls due out tonight?
well yes, Labours problem is the deficit, but that still doesn’t make me want to suffer for 18 years. I really would have thought a poll would have been here by now…oh well, I probably won’t like what it says anyway!
Jackr
Labour’s problem isn’t the deficit. It may cost them the next election, but they don’t consider it a problem. Otherwise they would have sought to do more than keep borrowing at just less than the 40% rule through the boom years. They reduced the deficit just enough to be able to say “we’ve lowered it” and then set about borrowing as much as the golden rule would allow, without a second thought as to what would happen in the event of a downturn. The deficit will in fact be a problem for everyone, not just Labour.
Granted I didn’t notice the effects of the 18 Tory years, but the overriding opinion I get is that Labour are very good at spending money and the Tories very good at not spending it. As such the electorate flip-flops between them every so often, depending on whether they want high or low spend.
The biggest problems seems to have been that 18 years of Tory led to not enough spending, and 11 years of Labour has ended up with too much. I know there are many who do not want to see a return to the Conservatives because of what they did ‘last time’, but it seems to me that we cannot take another 5 years of Labour without ending up with the most crippling tax system in the world and a mass exodus of the so-called ‘rich’ because they can afford to move to countries that do not penalise them.
Mark ,
There really is very little evidence that the Tories spend less than Labour in percentage terms. Over the last two decades they were both in government for ten years uninterrupted sending patterns wasn’t that different.
The Economy under the Tories might have been less fit to stand it and growth in the last decade may have been higher but i think the High spending labour v Low spending tories is pretty much a myth.
In addition it shouldn’t be forgotten that a whole raft of industries that were under pubic ownership before thatcher were effective taken off the governments books and the proceeds of the sales added to the governments accounts.
That can be seen as a real ideological difference, but once it’s been sold the next government in can’t benefit from selling it again.
Peter.
So far the recession in Britain has mostly got rid of some unnecessary flab. There is the potential for this country to become leaner and stronger as a result of the credit crunch. However, if unemployment is around two and half million or more by the end of the year the country and Labour will be significantly weakened.
Colin pointed out that Darling said that what has happened is akin to food poisoning. But actually its more akin to a child that has become obese through wreckless gluttony. And the parental responsibility to lay down rules lies with each country’s government.
As our government sets down new rules for the banks people may ask why they didn’t do this earlier.
Yes but the Tory Party closed hundreds of hospitals and they were not looked after and seeing those hospitals in such a bad state still haunts me today. The thing is people do think that the Conservatives will send less in general because they scrapped the promise to spend as much as Labour on public services which to be fair is where they have fallen at every general election because Labour plays on it by releasing broadcasts like “if you vote conservative public services will be put at risk, jobs will be put at risk, education will be put at risk” I’m not a great fan of negative campaigning but it seems both Parties play on it and I doubt it will change.
Gordon’s problem though is that he said he had sorted out the economy and I don’t think Britain’s have forgotten about that statement…but then the Conservatives would have let Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley fail so I’m in 2 minds about the whole economy thing. It seems you can’t win with the public spending thing either…Labour spends a lot and the Conservatives cut back, personally I prefer lots of spending on public services but then I understand the debt problem is an issue but it seems you can’t win..
JackR
I think the Tories are in favour of spending too if the country can afford it. Sad fact is that public spending is now too high in the country and unless it is actually cut by whichever Government then UK Plc then we will continue to get further and further into debt as a country . This is because Tax revenues will be much lower for probably the next 5 years at least.
It might be said that the Tories take a more practical approach to public spending whereas Labour will spend regardless.
History shows that Labour Governments do tend to overspend and this inevitably leads to periods of Tory Government where the budget is put back into balance over time. To the public this means cuts in public services but they are only cuts from a level we could never afford in the first place - or so the Tories would argue.
10 years of growth was not luck it was hard fought by the conservatives.
blair is a nut.
he inherited the family business and like a drunked son trashed it.
i am looking for a new calculator to calculate blair and brown reckless debt figures.
any help would be appreciated.
and ps jackr
the tories increased spending on health.wake up.the first nurse to get £100,000 salary,last year,the whole thing is a scandal.
Simon, but that can’t be true, 10 years of growth is not thanks to the Conservatives, in fact they led us through many of the worst recessions but then the question I am asking myself now is was that due to their complete incompetence or bad luck. No doubt black Wednesday was due to their incompetence and I wasn’t a fan of those high interest rates either.
We wouldn’t be in recession unless America had ran into problems so technically its not anyone’s fault in Britain.
If they did increase money on the health service I didn’t see any of it, at least Labour have finished their hospital refurbishment and building pledge.
On a general note do you think the next poll will be in a couple of days after the public has reacted to the interest cut? Good news also the Euro fell slightly against the pound yesterday - wonder if it will last? Probably not but I don’t understand the currency markets!
Jack - if you click on the “all voting intention” link at the top of the comments to the left, you can scroll back to this time last year, which will give a reasonable guide to when the regular polls are due
Ipsos-MORI/ 2008-01-13
YouGov/Sunday Times 2008-01-11
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 2008-01-11
Ipsos-MORI/Sun 2008-01-10
It’s not definitely going to occur, but as a prediction of who’s pollling when, it’s probably more reliable than economic predictions
Jack - if you click on the “all voting intention” link at the top of the comments to the left, you can scroll back to this time last year, which will give a reasonable guide to when the regular polls are due
Ipsos-MORI/ 2008-01-13
YouGov/Sunday Times 2008-01-11
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 2008-01-11
Ipsos-MORI/Sun 2008-01-10
It’s not definitely going to occur, but as a prediction of who’s pollling when, it’s probably more reliable than economic predictions
JackR
Sadly, the “if you vote conservative public services will be put at risk, jobs will be put at risk” has proved very effective for Labour in the past and they will use it every time any party talks of public spending cuts. There is a clip on youtube on a queens speech debate where Brown says that Tories IHT cuts would result in giving the richest 3,000 estates £1bn that could be spent on 25,000 nurses, teachers etc. Despite being completely bogus (the £1bn was never going to be spent on nurses anyway) this line of attack worked because the Tories didn’t counter effectively enough by saying, as they have now, that health, education etc will not be cut back on.
You have to give Labour some credit for their powers of persuasion. They’ve convinced millions of people that there is no way to cut even a penny from a £650bn budget without affecting front-line services. I’m sure there are many Labour voters who do realise that money can be saved and they support Labour for reasons other than ‘we spend more than the tories’, but the ones who staunchly defend them on the grounds that nurses and teachers will be put out of work as a result of any spending cut need to enter the real world.
And to carry on - it was just bad luck that the Conservatives had two recessions. These things typically happen every 7-10 years. That it was 16 years to this one shows how deep it will be. Yes, America may have been the catalyst to this downturn, but if they hadn’t have been, someone else would have - and we can’t have been far from the front of the queue. In all the talk of ending boom and bust though, Brown forgot to prepare the economy for a downturn, which is why we are going to get hammered by it. The ERM fiasco may have been bad at the time, but it paved the way for the 16 years of growth we’ve just had. This recession may prove to have a silver lining too.
My question to you is though, if Labour stay in power, and we have another recession in 8 years, as the Tories had to deal with, do you think the country can survive another borrowing binge and bailout package? Or do we need to accept that recessions happen, and the best we can do is to get our economy in a position so that we don’t end up with crippling debts when the next one comes?
Mark - that’ll be a lot fewer than the richest 3000 now that property has crashed, and I think the boost to the richest was more like £2bn. It wasn’t an effective attack by brown though, since the majority of people are in favour of abolishing IHT, no matter how much of a boost it is to howsoever few estates.
On the issues - I disagree with you over what paves the way for what are better, but this is no place for such an argument; rather it’s a place to discuss public perceptions and the evidence thereof in the polls.
I think the debate on public spending will be different at the next GE than at previous elections.
For one thing the huge budget deficits the Government are building up are being covered in the media a lot and also, several recent polls have shown that the public are decidely not in favour of continually increasing Government debt .
Jackr and MarkM: You guys seem to have gone a bit off message for a polling site!!
Roll on the next poll - I am not convinced we will see a big increase in the Con support yet. The BBC narative particularly is still very much with the govt, though newspaper headlines are starting to go seriously against them. I personally don’t think we will see Conservative leads of more than 10% for at least another six months, until the media return to the belief that Gordo is not up to the job.
Kudos to Marm M for posing in my view the right questions many voters will ask. I think though the memories of the 18 Tory years are not just economic numbers but social division. As a Notherner I do not remember enough SEast voters bothering too much about manufactruing decimation during those 18 years with few mitigation policies and continued voting Tory in sufficient numbers.
This recession is likely to hit the SE more as more jobs are in the financial service sector plus the fall in £ will help what industry we have left ,more of which is in the North and house price falls have been greater in the SE.
Labours vote (or seat count as safe seat votes will be well down) may well hold up better in the Regions (Scotland aside) but they will lose many key marginals in the South unless Osborne messes things up again,
Man U fans sing ‘Viva John Terry’ Labour activists could be singing ‘Viva George Osborne’.
Yeah, ok we’ve gone a bit off topic. It’s hard to discuss polls when there are none though
I thought we were having quite a grown up debate about issues. You’ve got to admit it was nicer than a full heated argument with name-calling that has happened lately. Roll on the next polls, let’s see if anthony’s theory holds up.
The choice is much starker now than it was before the Conservatives’ pledge to cut spending.
If people regard government spending cuts as the same concept as private company spending cuts, then it’ll be easy for Labour to paint such cuts as job cuts. (ie when a company wants to save £200m, they cut jobs).
If, however, people regard government spending cuts as somehow different - eg taking buses instead of taxis, etc, then the Tories’ argument that they would be cutting waste, not jobs, might prevail.
Again I think the argument that the Tories are spendthrift and Labour profligate is false. Yes Labour spent a lot more money than before, but as the economy was growing rapidly at the time it looked sustainable.
The error was that the growth wasn’t sustainable as it was driven by inflated asset prices speculation and debt.
I suspect that the Tories wouldn’t have spent so much and might have cut taxation but then there is a good chance that that would have fuelled the boom even more and that we would be in a deeper hole now.
I don’t suppose people will stop the right/left Tory/ Labour bashing here regardless of what I say but if you look at the difference in cash terms between the two sides with regards to tax cuts and public spending and compare them to the overall tax take, public spending and GDP there really isn’t that much difference.
Truth is, partly due to triangulation and spin we have two political parties which for the last decade or so, have ritually condemned each others economic policies while by and large subscribing to the same free market city/consumer approach.
On a separate note I final got round to doing a spread sheet on all the Yougov sub-samples for 2008 for Scotland, partly to see how Labour in Scotland faired with regards to economic confidence.
The results are over a total of 24 polls and they show that as with the UK Labours fortunes have as ielsewhere pretty much tracked economic confidence.
If anything they have faired slightly worse even though economic confidence in Scotland has been higher than the rest of the UK. I think there are a number of possible explanations for this;
Firstly Labour in Scotland had never fallen as far as in the south so any recovery wasn’t likely to be as large.
The second often noted aspect is that in a four party system and rise is likely to be less than in a three party one, even when there is a principle beneficiary.
A third factor could be that as this is a Westminster focused event the gain may well have come more from UK parties than the SNP and as they have a lower share of the vote then there was less for Labour to gain.
If this is in part the explanation then where as the SNP have been overtaken by being sidelined by events focused in London we may also have escaped some of the damage if the electorate are focusing on UK political responses.
One thing that might suggest that this is the case is that over most of the year the combined Lab/SNP vote has been 60-65%, but over the period of he last month or so as Labour have strengthened it has risen to over 70% (although it has just dipped below that).
There are of course caveats to all this. The samples are small, there is a fair variation from poll to poll and there are clusters of polls in some periods and gaps in others.
However I did mean, mode and median for all the parties and came up with the following;
Lab; mean 32%, mode 32%, median 32%
SNP; mean 33%, mode 34%, median 34%
Tory; mean 19%, mode 19%, median 19%
LibDem; mean 11%, mode 13%, median 12%
Others; mean 3%, mode 3%, median 3%.
Over the year these look pretty stable in terms of the three different measures compensating for each other.
The fact that four of the twenty four polls were full Scottish ones helps to pull the Libdems over 10%, which I think overcomes the fact that the distribution of their vote (with some much of it in a few locations) tends to mean that in the UK Scottish samples they are probably under represented, often scoring well below 10%.
Currently the Parties in the run up to Christmas were on ( compared to the average for 2008);
Lab 38% (+6%), SNP 30% (-2%), Tory 17% (-2%), LibDem 10% (-2%), Others 5% (+2%).
A good result for Labour although since late October they have been running at 40% or over. Equally compared to the last few months this looks like a bit of a recovery for the Libdems and ups and downs for the Tories, with the SNP the most stable.
I’ll probably use these 2008 averages for my base line till about the spring and then update it to cover the last financial year.
Peter.
Sorry for going off topic, its just as there were not any polls to talk about it seemed better to have a mature talk about the various parties and it’s been nice to be able to talk about that without being called names just because someone doesn’t agree with me.
I’m quite interested in the Scottish Polls too because Labour needs to do well in Scotland to have any chance of winning. I think that whilst the SNP did well last year they won’t do exceptionally well come the next election, I think the polls show that the Lib Dems might be the big losers in Scotland and nationwide. The problem for the SNP is that I don’t think that the majority of Scottish People are in favour of an independent Scotland and the economic crisis has shown that it would be hard for Scotland to cope at a time of economic turmoil, I used to live in Perth which is SNP and I must say that I always found them to be fine and I don’t think they will lose the seat to the Conservatives any time soon!
@ NigelJ - “I am not convinced we will see a big increase in the Con support yet.”
I agree with you on that. I think the next round of polls will show pretty much what the last couple before Christmas showed, perhaps with a small 1 or 2 point shift in favour of the Tories. After that, though, I think we’ll see the Tories solidly back in double figure lead territory - assuming, of course, nothing unpredictable such as a miraculous economic recovery happens.
I think Brown will revert to flapping, dithering and clunking again as things don’t go his way, and that will be the end of him really.
But we’ll see
A belated reply to Richard’s riposte to my point about a possible upturn in the US housing market.
I agree that the latest official data (from November) is still not positive, but the BBC’s US correspondent was reporting last week on anecdotal evidence from some real estate agents that they ‘were rushed off their feet’ over the holiday period as new interest in the market appeared from nowhere.
I’ve no idea if this is true or not, but just as the mood in the UK turned earlier this year in matter of weeks, if not days, I think the next change of mood will be equally rapid and take many by surprise. It will start in the US, and I wouldn’t bet against it having something to do with a new President. The US is entering a new age, and they know it - its a very potent mix.
Mike S on Political Betting reporting rumours of a You Gov poll in the Sun showing 41 / 34 / ??.
Alec
So the basis of your idea of a reviving US housing market is a vague comment about estate agents! A profession not noted for it’s realism or honesty.
As I said the most recent official figures show that the US housing market is not only continuing to decline but that the decline is actually accelerating. With increasing job losses and deepening recession in the USA I can’t see confidence returning to the housing market for a long while yet.
The USA is entering a new age, however it’s rather more likely to one of relative decline than improvement. Barak Obama has proved that he is a skilled politician and can recite a speech very well whether he can actually govern is yet to be discovered.
New Yougov poll - Con 41/Lab34 - 7% difference no change.
Yep the sun has released a poll saying Conservative:41 Labour:34 Lib Dem:15
Not what I was hoping hoping for but at the same time its not a great shock.
just what i was hoping for from the you gov poll in the sun. just going to get worse for the unelected one
JackR,
I’m no fan of the Tories. But I think it is almost inevitable that Labour will fail to win the next election.
A lot of people will feel that with the present Tory leadership there is a relatively fresh and decent alternative. And it seems to me that many who used to support new Labour now perceive it as an old Nanny who has lost touch.
On a positive note for Labour I see no reason for not thinking it has every chance of winning the following election. But this time too many people will want a change.
It is my feeling that whoever wins next time will only be in for a term.
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