Comments on: Poll of West London marginals

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 20:21:12 +0000

On Mike’s comment about the big upweighting needed for the under 24s, my impression (I haven’t taken the time to collate the figures and look at them over a large number of polls) is that this this is a pretty common occurance – under 24s seem to be an age group that are often under-represented in the raw samples who need weighting upwards (understandably enough I suppose, since they are most likely to be mobile only or to be out having an active social life!)

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 19:11:36 +0000

Peter , the data from the big marginals poll some months ago now certainly showed LibDem support holding up better in LibDem seats .
I agree with Mike , the results for the subsample for 18-24 yr olds in this poll looks odd , but with these small subsamples there is usually a freak or two .

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 17:10:59 +0000

Conor – the disclosure rules of BPC are that those pollsters who are signed up (which includes ICM and the other main companies) will put the tables up on their website (or provide them if asked) within 2 days.

By: Conor Ryan

Conor Ryan — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 16:43:44 +0000

I thought as much when I read the contrived piece in the Sunday Times. Other polling has suggested that the wider public back the third runway, and recognised that many people living near Heathrow work there. ICM were very tardy putting up these figures on their website. Shouldn’t there be a requirement that they do so once partial reports of their findings are being made in the newspapers?

By: Mike Smithson

Mike Smithson — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:29:46 +0000

The Labour position seemed to be driven by the 18-24 cohort who went L67% to C23%. ICM seemed have found it hard get a reasonable sample of the age group and they had to be weighted up by more than half.

A survey of voter registration levels across the whole London by NOP last year had more than a quarter in this group not on the register.

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:22:33 +0000

Anthony,

The large Libdem fall fits in with what I think may well happen in Scotland.

As I’ve noted before with 40% of the Scottish Libdem vote in the approximately 205 of the seats they hold I think that the squeeze will fall predominantly in seats they don’t hold and therefore although they could have a big drop in their national vote they won’t lose as many seats as the predictors suggest.

Is there any evidence to suggest from marginal polls that the Libdem vote is holding up particularly better in seats the LibDems hold?.

I know you have build an element for incumbancy in to your calculations but is it the same for all the parties, and does it alter depending on whether the party is in accendency or not?

I can understand the reluctance to get involved in that kind of thing as it can easily go from being informed judgement to supposition and speculation.

Having said that from the perspective of Scotland I’d be looking at the Libdems falling to on or below 10 seats with it accounting for over 50% of their vote.

Out of interest has anyone got figures for the national breakdowns in terms of percentage of total vote in seats held for the main parties.

I’d be interested to see it because it might give an insight in to how vulnerable the Libdems are to reaching a tipping point between a good result on a lower percentage and a crash in the number of seats held.

Peter.

By: Morning roundup, Tuesday 6th January 2009 - Common Endeavour

Morning roundup, Tuesday 6th January 2009 - Common Endeavour — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 09:28:17 +0000

[...] other news, the Tory Troll salutes the ingenuity of BoJo’s media team, the UK Polling Report investigates a poll on the impact of the third runway at Heathrow, Tom Harris wipes a tear from his [...]

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:26:36 +0000

It think it’s right to be sceptical about those questions asking whether people’s opinions on the 3rd runway might affect the way they might vote, not least because it’s a truism that people will use any available cipher to promulgate their political viewpoint.

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 23:32:30 +0000

Thanks for that explanation Anthony .

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 23:09:16 +0000

The Rallings and Thrasher notional vote at the last election in those seats was CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 21% Others 5%. The targets for weighting are adjusted to take into account ICM’s estimates of false recall.