A new ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror shows the Conservatives still enjoying a double point lead. The topling figures with changes from last month are CON 42%(-1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 19%(+1). I can’t find any details of the fieldwork dates yet, but it’s very likely to have been done after David Cameron’s announcements on Tory economic policy on Tuesday.

The trend continues to be against the Conservatives – albeit, the one point shifts in each party’s share are not in themselves significant. This poll is, however, likely to be seem as a great relief for the Conservatives simply because the 3 point lead from MORI earlier in the week received so much publicity. This poll doesn’t reflect a shift back to the Tories, it reflects ICM’s different methodology – they weight their samples by past vote so their sample contains fewer former Labour voters to begin with, and their question wording, weighting and adjustment of don’t knows all lead to a higher level of Lib Dem support – which in recent months has been at the expense of Labour.

This should be a good reminder that you need to look at the broad sweep of the polls. The 3 point lead was a single poll, from a single pollster, when other companies’ most recent polls were still showing 11 and 13 point leads. You should always look at the big picture, not the most recent poll.


56 Responses to “Tories still have an 11 point lead with ICM”

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  1. Alec,

    A sound policy idea, but I see one obvious flaw…..
    Don’t MP’s benefit from the 40% tax relief on their pensions……

    Don’t hold your breath.

    Peter.

  2. Chris Newey disagrees that when cameron gets more coverage, the Tory lead will increase:”I disagree, it will be a time where Cameron has to be firm on policies and not flip flop by the week. The Cons response to the economy is almost laughable if it wasn’t possible they could be the governing party in 18 months time.It will certianly be no time for a novice and the electorate will see this.”

    Not a labour troll are we Chris? This blog is about polls! Opinion polls clearly indicate that when Cameron gets more coverage his poll ratings improve. Try and stick to the subject, and if you know nothing about it please go back to Labourhome where you can dream on about Gordon’s magical effect on labour’s electoral chances

  3. So anybody who expresses support for Labour is a troll?

    Opinion polls clearly indicate that when Cameron gets more coverage his poll ratings improve. – says Nigelj.

    And which poll would that be, pray?

    It’s you who should stick to the polls. It’s what Cameron and Brown SAY and DO that count. The idea that Cameron walks on water which is what you’re implying is wide of the mark.

    Oh sorry that makes me a troll.

  4. It is the rise in NI contributions that culd finish Labour if the Tories are clever and ram home that message.

    I think we need to look at the next couple of polls to see if it is swinging back to the conservatives or not one tree dosen’t make a forest!

  5. sorry about my spelling slightly Dyslexic

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