Apart from the obvious clearing of the legislative decks, Brown appears to be hoping that the economy will have started to turn – and June would allow a reckless giveaway budget to hit pay packets before the PSBR figures begin to show up optimism of his forecasts.

Also, I notice that he is planning to bring troops home from Iraq before June – lancing the Iraq war boil once and for all.

Finally, we should not ignore the fact that Labour are practically bankrupt, so combining three elections into one is financially attractive.

If he does not go in June, then he would need to wait until October, and possibly be forced into 2010 – especially if the County / Euro elections prove a disaster.

There is an outside chance of Brown opting for March/April 2009, but he would ned to have seen several months of good polls before taking teh risk. May is not really an option having ordered the County Councils be deferred from the original date.

One matter should be of particular if there is a 2009 election. It is bad enough, in my view very bad, having General and local elections all on the same day. It would be absolutely appalling having three elections, local, general and European. It would be a recipe for chaos and spoilt votes, particularly given the large number of postal votes (regular readers will know this is another of my psephological complaints): there is no friendly polling officer present to see that the voter does not put papers in the wrong envelope. One result is that voting may be all over the place, not least because ordinary electors are unable to diesentangle the many issues that should really be debated.

Ad hoc introduction of American-style multiple office voting could be used by opposition parties at the election to remind voters of issues that might otherwise have gone away about how Labour treated democracy during the parliament. We comment on this site on ongoing points, but the actual results of the next election will as always be affected by matters that capture public attention during the campaign (these days, providing they are raised close to the first real pollling day, the one on which postal ballot papers drop on the doormats).

Could that be down to caution by Brown, ruling out an early election, or amongst pollsters awaiting further evidence ?

We are working class in this household and I can assure everyone that all 5 of us cannot wait for NuLabour to be soundly thrashed at the next GE.

I notice some of you who say the Conservatives favout the rich, but surely without rich people we would have no jobs to go to.

There are many many reasons why NuLabour WILL lose the next GE, the economy is just one.

We in this household all intend to vote Conservative to bring sanity and pride back to our Country.

However, there is a danger that objections that comparisons constitute mud-slinging or even libel will prevent sensible debate from which real lessons can be learned.

In the case of 1930s Germany, Hitler regenerated the economy by debt financed spending, under the guidance of Schacht., who was generally recognised as technically one of the most astute financial policy makers of the time, probably only second to Keynes. Schacht in the end fell out with Hitler, was imprisoned in a concentration camp and found not guilty of war crimes at Nuremburg. Of course, Hitler spent the money on armaments. The exercise turned into a trap because Hitler needed to spend more and more on arms to prevent economic recession, which forced him (apart from his appalling ideology) into War, and specifically into territorial agression as a result of which he acquired additional resources (such as the Skoda works in Czechoslovakia). Indeed in 1939 the French and Germans hoped they might win because of German economic collapse, and therefore that they did not need to attack militarily.

What Brown is doing is both like and unlike 1930s Germany. It is, thank goodness, different in that he is proposing to incur debt for consumer spending rather than additional expenditure on aramaments. But it is like Germany in that he is going into debt for current expenditure (albeit on tax cuts to generate spending rather than weapons purchase), rather than captial investment, e.g. on the power stations and new railways the United Kingdom desperately needs at the moment. Brown claims that the loans he is raising will be repaid by increasing taxation when the economy has recovered. But inter-war German history suggests he may be initiating a feedback loop whereby the UK will need to borrow more and more to prevent depression and/or, of particular relevance to this site, political discontent.

I think it is an open question whether the adverse political and economic consequences of the current financial crisis, and of attempts to deal with it, will start to become apparent by 2010, but I believe they will be a huge problem by 2015 as things stand. And if we are not careful they could result in extremism. Further, LUKW, I have already posted on this site pointing out that serious economic crisis is what kills political parties. If the Tories lose in 2010 with seriously deficient economic policies, Polly Toynbee is right: it could be the end for them. The same goes for Labour too.

In my view the bottom line is that if we want long-term stability in UK voting behaviour the Government must be induced to raise money to start major capital programmes as soon as possible. There are short-term economic advantages in trying to kickstart the economy with consumer expenditure, but the overwhelming danger is that such short-termisn will make it impossible to raise subsequent loans that will enable essential investment. If, for instance, there are everyday cuts in electricity supply in the late 2010s people aren’t likely going to vote for the party or parties responsible for a very long time.

“The Tories are clinging on to their double-digit lead over Labour, according to a poll published tonight.

The ICM survey for the Sunday Mirror found the Conservatives still 11 points ahead of Labour – suggesting talk of a 2009 general election may be premature….”

“It put the Conservatives on 42% (down one since last month), Labour on 31% (up one) and the Liberal Democrats on 19% (up one).”