Comments on: MORI show an even smaller Tory lead…

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 00:01:01 +0000

Paul Goodard, I hope the recession is shallow, and in my posts over the summer, I was prepared to wait and see.
Unfortunately, I think this is going to be almost as bad as 1990-92 as GDP could fall by 2 per cent next year, about the same as in 1980 or 1991.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 23:26:11 +0000

Philip Johnston – your contribution is semi-literate, hard to fathom at times, but definitely totally partisan. It makes no reference to the polls at all.

By: Ivan the terrible

Ivan the terrible — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 23:21:45 +0000

Paul, I agree.

As well as the pain it’ll cause us all I think the impending recession allows the Labour hierarchy to paint themselves as hard working, solid figures.

Prior to this strife, just a few months ago, they were viewed as a bunch of clowns! Lost data, dodgy crime figures, bloated bureaucracy, 10p tax…

I won’t hide my belief that Labour ARE partly responsible for the financial mess we’re in but I must admit, both personally and from a political viewpoint, I wish we weren’t.

By: paul goddard

paul goddard — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:31:09 +0000

It does sadden me to read repeatedly individuals relying on a recession to increase the chances of the tories increasing their poll leads once again. I am hoping that it will be a moderate recession, but even so let me take you back to the recession of the early 90’s

Conservatives – The recession is a global recession, it is not our fault.
Labour – It is the fault of the Conservative government.

and now in 2008

Labour – The recession is a global recession, it is not our fault.
Conservatives – It is the fault of the Labour government.

1992 – Conservatives win election
2010 – who knows, but the message is don’t rely on a recession to bring a change of government, in turbulent times voters can stay with who they know.

By: tony jones

tony jones — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:12:48 +0000

Has there been an Oracle bug sweeping this board. Go through his post from the last few months and you will notice his predictions of 50%+conservative vote, Labour being dead and buried, copy and paste to your hearts content is utter trollies.

Yet this plucking Conservative leads out of the airthat is being done by now quite a few posters” in a few months time”, “the next set of polls”, “when the recession kicks in”,is identical to what was posted two months ago. Don’t believe me check it is in the archive, by November Brown was gone, Labour was supposed to be dead,etc etc.It is getting wilder as the polls get closer.

Do some of you think your political views are actually staining your Oracle crystal ball when in the last few weeks the polls have closed whilst your future predictions seem to make it wider. I would have thought the McCain Victory Prediction Turkey would have knocked this silly partizan approach to predictions on its head and people would try and use what is actually happening in the polls as some kind of indicator not what they wish was happening.

Here’s a prediction I will give, if in the next poll it is getting even closer the words ROGUE POLL will appear.

By: colin

colin — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 19:43:30 +0000

“For the record it has been made clear that the likely tax cuts are not intended to be permanent. They are supposed to be a temporary measure to tide people over until the recovery starts.”

Yes of course-this is all about the size of the Stimulus Package & whether it is funded by borrowing which exceeds that engendered by the recession; or funded by reductions in non-productive government spending.

The more I think about it I can see Brown shooting all Cameron’s Foxes including Reversal of the proposed VED increase and Council Tax-why not?

Council Tax would be a beauty from Labour’s point of view-a centrally funded once off 10% discount -£100 or so-would cost £1.8bn out of a speculative package of £15 billion…and when it disappears a year later, its Tory Councils who get the flack .

By: Graham

Graham — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:58:47 +0000

If you look closely at the tables on the Mori site, the 40-37 split relates to the 51% of respondents who say they are certain to vote. If you add in those who say they are 90% certain to vote you get to a turn out of 58% (it was 59% in the last election) and 38-38. Which, according to Electoral Calculus, gives a Labour majority of 32 and, according to UK-Elect, leads to a Labour majority of 40.

By: philip johnston

philip johnston — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:56:15 +0000

with the labour supporters hanging on to thatcherism(she left office nearly 20 years ago) is magic to me.

like saying in 1998 that dennis healy(if anybody remembered him then) was a great chancellor,grow up boys.

ok labour lovies,at the election what is your message?

higher taxes like the last 12 years or cut taxes(thatcherite)

need for change(obama)

all not good for labour.people will always pretend they want higher taxes when their house is going up in value.

this country is in a complete shambles and you were in charge.record debt,worse than dennis healy,that great chancellor.

bring on the election.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:55:52 +0000

For the record it has been made clear that the likely tax cuts are not intended to be permanent. They are supposed to be a temporary measure to tide people over until the recovery starts.

It isn’t fair to suggest that MORI polls have a pro-Labour bias. After all not long ago the same company had the Tories no less than 28% ahead, more than any other poll.

By: colin

colin — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:50:08 +0000

The PBR will be riveting-and significant.

Mandelson/Brown will want to shoot any Tory Fox still in view-so will their Fiscal Package be “funded”-by savings now?

Who will be the beneficiaries of the mooted tax cuts-and who won’t-and what will the fall out be from that divide?

Will the tax cuts just be postponments-thus the timing of tax rises-or re-instatements will actually be visible.
Would that mitigate against recipients spending their temporary relief?

What will Darling’s revised forward annual borrowing forecasts look like ? Brown has missed every one he made-will Darling’s have any credibility?

What will Darlings Plans for the
2010/2011 year look like?-will it give Cameron a chance to say “I told you so” !?

Both DC & Clegg at PMQs asked about continuing poor credit availability to Small & Med. Businesses . Brown’s replies were full of coded messages-is he going to announce a Government source of lending direct to SMBs?-and where does that take us politically in light of the Bank Bailouts?

etc etc.