Comments on: YouGov’s lowest Tory lead since last year

By: Gary Gatter

Gary Gatter — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 01:03:01 +0000

Over the next two weeks or so I would expect the G20 summit (will it look good or bad) and George Osborne (will he stay or go) to cause some movement in the polls. The Iraq troops withdrawal news may also cause some movement. Currency movements are allways a double edged sword so I can’t see that having much effect either way (I could be wrong – it has been known). But i think that unless the Conservative vote drops below 40% for a month or more then things are still not that good for Labour, they seem to be picking up votes from everywhere except the Conservatives.

By: wolf

wolf — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 19:56:58 +0000

People may not know much about politics but they don’t like going on holiday and not being able to buy.

By: KTL

KTL — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 10:21:44 +0000

I don’t think Osborne’s comments will be a factor – what he said is perfectly logical and his comments have been echoed by K en Clarke and the British Chamber of Commerce in the last 24 hours.
Actually he didnt predict a run on the pound – he said it was possible that their could be one.

More to the point, if you scan some of the other questions that pollsters asked in the recent polls , 75 odd % agree that any tax cuts should be paid for by cutting public spending not by borrowing more. It is inevitable that if the Governments borrowing increases further it will weaken the pound and judging by the pounds recent performance the markets already seem to have made their minds up.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 10:20:25 +0000

Lord Kalms said that? Could be a rare burst of sympathy for George Osborne from this Labour supporter…….

By: Patrick Haseldine

Patrick Haseldine — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 23:22:54 +0000

We have yet to see the “Osborne effect” where today he predicted a run on the pound, and Lord Kalms said that Osborne should be replaced by Tory heavyweight, David Davis.

My guess is that the Tory lead is going to evaporate very quickly.

By: stuart gregory

stuart gregory — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 21:50:09 +0000

this maybe a realigning of the pollsters showing a more even picture

By: Philip J W

Philip J W — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 21:08:38 +0000

I notice that in the past several weeks that while all others polls were giving Labour 30 and 31 Yougov were giving them 33 and 34.

Can it really be confidently said that Yougov are spot on?

I believe it has been stated that we must allow for a 3% error in all polls.

We must wait to see whether further polls confirm that there has and has not been a significant shift towards Labour.

To me such a big sudden shift doesn’t make sense. Ah, well it shouldn’t take many polls to see if this has really happened.

By: Alec

Alec — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 21:03:14 +0000

Comres showing 43/32 – their last poll had Tories on 39 so this might not be so out of line as it first looks

By: KTL

KTL — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 20:46:05 +0000

Wow,

YouGovs polls are normally spot on so I have to believe it.

Even though I’m a Tory supporter I have to admit that it really is Game on now.

I still can’t see how Labour can increase further in the coming months as the recession begins to bite but there again I have to be honest and say that I never would have forecast this poll result at this time.

Cameron needs to up his game and show the same sort of energy that Brown is currently showing and start holding Brown to account for the financial mess that the country is in.