A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures, with changes from the previous poll a fortnight ago, of CON 41%(-1), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 14%(-1).

The 5 point Tory lead is the smallest lead since April and the smallest from YouGov since December last year. It echoes the move towards Labour that we saw in Populus at the beginning of the week. Notably, like most other polls, the Conservatives are still sticking above 40%, with Labour’s growing support coming from the Liberal Democrats and “others”. The dates aren’t available yet, but the chances are it was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and most of YouGov’s fieldwork occurs at the start of their fieldwork period, so if there is a “baby p” effect on the polls we wouldn’t necessarily be seeing it yet.

9 Responses to “YouGov’s lowest Tory lead since last year”

  1. Wow,

    YouGovs polls are normally spot on so I have to believe it.

    Even though I’m a Tory supporter I have to admit that it really is Game on now.

    I still can’t see how Labour can increase further in the coming months as the recession begins to bite but there again I have to be honest and say that I never would have forecast this poll result at this time.

    Cameron needs to up his game and show the same sort of energy that Brown is currently showing and start holding Brown to account for the financial mess that the country is in.

  2. Comres showing 43/32 – their last poll had Tories on 39 so this might not be so out of line as it first looks

  3. I notice that in the past several weeks that while all others polls were giving Labour 30 and 31 Yougov were giving them 33 and 34.

    Can it really be confidently said that Yougov are spot on?

    I believe it has been stated that we must allow for a 3% error in all polls.

    We must wait to see whether further polls confirm that there has and has not been a significant shift towards Labour.

    To me such a big sudden shift doesn’t make sense. Ah, well it shouldn’t take many polls to see if this has really happened.

  4. this maybe a realigning of the pollsters showing a more even picture

  5. We have yet to see the “Osborne effect” where today he predicted a run on the pound, and Lord Kalms said that Osborne should be replaced by Tory heavyweight, David Davis.

    My guess is that the Tory lead is going to evaporate very quickly.

  6. Lord Kalms said that? Could be a rare burst of sympathy for George Osborne from this Labour supporter…….


  7. I don’t think Osborne’s comments will be a factor – what he said is perfectly logical and his comments have been echoed by K en Clarke and the British Chamber of Commerce in the last 24 hours.
    Actually he didnt predict a run on the pound – he said it was possible that their could be one.

    More to the point, if you scan some of the other questions that pollsters asked in the recent polls , 75 odd % agree that any tax cuts should be paid for by cutting public spending not by borrowing more. It is inevitable that if the Governments borrowing increases further it will weaken the pound and judging by the pounds recent performance the markets already seem to have made their minds up.

  8. People may not know much about politics but they don’t like going on holiday and not being able to buy.

  9. Over the next two weeks or so I would expect the G20 summit (will it look good or bad) and George Osborne (will he stay or go) to cause some movement in the polls. The Iraq troops withdrawal news may also cause some movement. Currency movements are allways a double edged sword so I can’t see that having much effect either way (I could be wrong – it has been known). But i think that unless the Conservative vote drops below 40% for a month or more then things are still not that good for Labour, they seem to be picking up votes from everywhere except the Conservatives.