Tories retain an election winning lead with ICM
ICM have a new poll out in the Sunday Telegraph. The topline figures, with changes from the previous ICM poll, are CON 43%(+1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 18%(-3).
The poll shows no significant change in Labour and Conservative support from the previous ICM poll, conducted a fortnight or so ago for the Guardian. The Liberal Democrats are down, and in hindsight the sudden 4 point Lib Dem boost we saw in that previous poll looks like a rogue; it has not been reflected in any other poll.
While there is no significant change here (ICM only briefly showed the Tory lead falling into single figures in the first place), by being both above the psychologically important points of a double figure lead and a lead that on a uniform swing would give the Conservatives a very solid majority, it will act to give a dampen down the narrative of a Labour recovery, indeed the Sunday Telegraph are reporting it as a “reality check”.
The report on the Telegraph website doesn’t give the dates of the research, but if it is in line with when ICM normally carry out Sunday Telegraph polls it would have been done on Wednesday and Thursday – in other words, prior to the Glenrothes result and any boost Labour receive from it. If that is the case, then we’ll have to wait for later polls to see if there is a “Glenrothes effect” on Labour support.
UPDATE: The poll was conducted on the 5th and 6th of November, Wednesday and Thursday, so was indeed before the Glenrothes result.
Filed under: ICM, Voting Intention
“A reality check” And so the narrative begins to change again?
Anthony, are we expecting a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times tonight?
Not as far as I know
Thanks Anthony.
Its just we usually get it on the second Saturday of the month I think? But I did wonder, because it would be earlier than usual if it came out tonight.
Well, at least it will dampen down any more of the media “speculation” (i.e. invention, probably intended to cause damage) that was beginning to appear about a possible early election.
The easy dismissing of Brown is over, and it’s obvious that we’re in for a long, difficult haul. But, as a “reality check”, a 13% opposition lead a year or more away from a GE is far from hopeless; especially as Brown/Darling are still much more trusted than Cameron/Osbourne to keep us afloat in the storms still ahead.
GIN – there is a regular timetable for the Sunday Times polls, but it’s pretty flexible, so sometimes it will be a week earlier or later.
no real change this month lib dems back to where they were before.
current monthly standing so far
CON 44% +1.2%
LAB 30.5% -0.7%
LD 15.5% (NC)
OTH 10.0% -0.5%
all change data is based on last months figures.
JohnH, I suspect Labour’s recent improvement in the polls is because people are happy with Brown to continue dealing with the effects of the credit crunch for the time being. However, polls suggest a section of that support does not wish Brown to continue after the election which is a worry. If Brown is still Labour leader at the next election – and it still a big if – it will be interesting to see how the party addresses that problem if it is to prevent support slipping away over the course of the next 18 months.
As for early election speculation, I would imagine that is more likely to have been mischief making by Mandelson or Campbell designed to put the wind up the Tories.
Figures in the poll not unexpected; the pre-budget report is going to be crucial as I suspect some well directed tax cuts could come into the frame further discomforting the Tories. We’ll no doubt hear about policy copying from the increasingly unfortunate Osborne but if people get a bit of extra in their pockets they won’t take much notice of that.
Tax cuts being popular will depend on whether the public is prepared to go on with ever increasing borrowing. Whilst some people no doubt will welcome tax cuts, others will worry that it’ll spell tax rises in the future….
not seen effect of interest cut rise, and it being based on yet
phew, was beginning to get worried
“Tax cuts being popular will depend on whether the public is prepared to go on with ever increasing borrowing.”
I think the public is now as unconcerned about Government borrowing as it has been about it’s own.
Tax cuts are what people need & want now & Brown will provide them.
He will do so because he no longer has to bother about Government Debt-there are no lost votes from it-and much more importantly it wrong foots the Tories & there are votes in that.
He has been brazenly cynical in his primary quest for political advantage -changing policy at will and airbrushing his past from history.
The Polls seem to indicate that the public don’t care-they want him to spend his way through the recession….and then get out of the way whilst the Tories pick up the pieces.
Very strange.
Colin,
Well this member of the public doesn’t want him to spend his way through the recession! No-one has ever explained to me how this crisis, caused by easy credit and over-borrowing, will be cured by easy credit and over-borrowing. It just doesn’t make sense. I’ve heard it said that it is Keynesian economics, and it is true that spending during a recession was advocated by Keynes, but he also said that money should be saved in the good times in order to do so! That second part seems to have been conveniently forgotten.
No wonder the Tories are still ahead. Not so much because they have better ideas, but just because they are NOT the current innumerate incumbents.
Pete B-nor me. Also I am a member of the vast army that is about to be absolutely hammered financially -whilst no one even mentions it-savers.
But the Public at large are supporting Brown’s economic moves presently.
The price will be paid later seems to be their attitude.
I have just been reading that Cameron intends to release a tax cut package himself-so we will have the battle of the tax cuts.
I hope that Cameron produces a package which is intellectually credible & more appropriate than Brown’s, rather than merely a different list of goodies to add to the National Debt.
If it is-and if the public can be pursuaded that it is then Cameron can begin to retrieve polling preference over Brown on economic management.
Bizarre & daft as it seems to many of us-that is all Brown has at present-the public seems to dislike everything else about him & his administration.
Can’t wait for the Pre-Budget fisticuffs!
I hope the Tory ideas for tax cuts are a little more intellectually credible than than their idea to put up duty on petrol when the price of oil falls – which would mean we would all be paying higher tax on our fuel bills right now in the middle of a recession, just when we need fuel prices to be dropping!!!
As for a ‘vast army’ of savers, the fact is that 98% of people in this copuntry have less than £50,000 in savings!!! Even if they had £50,000 in savings, a drop of 1.5% in interest rates equates to £14 per week before tax,(if they pay any!) hardly a ‘hammering’ for someone with £50k in the bank is it!!!
With the tax cuts that will come soon as well, saving an average of £500 per year for tax payers, this means that 98% of savers will not lose much at all but the majority of people, who do have a mortgage, will save £2,250 a year in interest charges on a mortgage of £150,000 following the 1.5% reduction. They are more likely to spend that £2,250 which will boost the economy as opposed to the ’savers’ who would stick it in the bank doing absolutely nothing for the economy.
Anyone with a modicum of intelligence can work out what is better for the country as a whole and it certainly isn’t to pump more money in terms of higher interest rates to the 2% of the population who have lots of cash saved up is it!!!
This latest poll was conducted before the banks, with the exception of LloydsTSB cut their interest rates by 1.5% to borrowers and before the By-Election so a neutral poll is not surprising really, the next ones will show if the Tory lead is solidifying or not
Richard, I agree with your comment about the Tory policy on Fuel Duty. It does not represent a commitment to reduce taxes, but would be now a tax increase affecting everyone at a time when they can less afford it. This was something I pointed out when it was first announced. The Tories will have to do better if they want to ensure a good turn out in their favour come the election.
Labour polled 30% on a few occasion in October so I can’t interpret this poll as significant for them. But 18% for the Lib Dems is relatively encouraging for their supporters.
Richard (Tatton Const)
The UK has an appalling savings-to-income ratio, and negative interest rates are not going to help improve that. Let’s keep to discussing the polls, and stop making fools of our economic knowledge.
Anyone with a modicum of intelligence… would realise that in an open economy like the UK’s the expansion of the money-supply does not generate vast amounts of income. It’s an effect known as the multiplier-effect. Wiki should have a reasonable entry…
one of the most unfair election biases must be sorted when the tories win.
obama wins a ‘landslide’ with a 5% lead.
the conservatives only scrape hope with a 10% lead.
it makes a mockery of democracy.well we dont really have it in the uk at the moment.
WMA 43:31:15. The idea that Brown has “saved the world” was always completely ludicrous. It’s increasingly clear that the UK is in a worse mess than any other major country. And as for the thought that Brown can tell Obama what to do – look at the collective experience of Obama’s economic advisors.
At present Labour are seen as no longer disunited and falling apart and this has trimmed the CLead from 20 to 12. But the tensions are still there and the economy will sadly get a lot worse.
This is the sort of result I would expect to see in a general election. The 20 point Tory lead, with Labour hovering in the mid-20s, always seemed unrealistic. Apart from anything else, Labour’s bedrock support is usually estimated at around 30% and you’d expect that lost 4-6% that slid it down to the mid-20s in polls to return to the fold in the event of an election.
For me, the really telling thing is that even at the height of a so-called “Brown bounce”, the Tories have remained ahead by a relatively substantial margin. In short, Brown bounces – but he bounces low. His best day is still worse than Cameron’s worst day.
Has anyone got a clear idea why the Glenrothes vote was so badly misjudged by everyone. Even Labour estimated their support 5,000 votes less, and when you have people on the ground taking private polls in a campaign this is a massive scale of error. All parties got it wildly wrong, which leaves to wonder if the base rate cut coming on the day of the election was behind the big lift in Labour’s vote. I find it hard to credit, given the timescales, but something happened that was very unexpected.
If that was anything to do with the result, will it show in the next set of polls? Alistair Darling also recieved some very helpful press after his Friday chat to the banks, and a government in power at a time of consensus over tax cuts controls a large part of the agenda.
It’s not over yet.
“£14 per week before tax,(if they pay any!) hardly a ‘hammering’ for someone with £50k in the bank is it!!!”
I didn’t know who you are Richard -and assumed from the above remark that you were a Lib Dem.They are not very familiar with the finances of retirement as you know.
But I see you are a Labour PPC-so that remark & the rest of your post is now understandable.
Just a few thoughts for you:
Most modest savers are retired people.For many of them for whom the State Pension is inadequate, their savings income is vital.
For many of them , their savings are both a source of income & source of pride that they can hand something on to their children & grandchildren.
11 million people are over retirement age in this country-the number will rise to 15 million by 2031.
The population is ageing-by 2071 27% of it will be over retirement age.
UK household debt is at record levels-over £1 Trillion -just when we are entering recession.
UK savings ratios-decimated by Labour-are at record low levels.
UK pension entitlements (EXCEPT in the Public Sector) are collapsing as salary linkage is ditched , and defined contribution pot values crash.
And your answer to all of this is to encourage people to spend more & borrow more and to pour scorn on those who save!
Let me make a prediction-the major part of any tax , and/or mortgage repayment reductions will not be used as you wish-to buy yet more unneccessary consumer goods- it will be used to reduce debt, increase savings in order to offset energy/council tax etc cost increases & hedge against loss of earnings.
As you say-we shall see how the Polls look over the next few weeks & months-one thing I feel sure about is the probable political inclination of most retired people and those described by you as:-
“’savers’ who would stick it in the bank doing absolutely nothing for the economy”
This poll will be a disappointment to Labour supporters, but we would want to see another sampled after 2 events which occurred subsequently : first the stunning Labour win in Glenrothes, which might be seen not to affect voters in England & Wales, and second the succesful pressure applied by Alistair Darling for banks to reduce interest rates in line with the Bank of England base rate, which obviously will. It would be a big boost for the Conservatives if this kind of poll lead were still to be maintained in the short term after these 2 events, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to many if Labour have closed the gap quite a bit even after this poll was sampled.
Brown is doing well since the crunch. Interest rate cuts and tax cuts are stimulants – will people feel the patient will recover or will they conclude the patient is much worse than they thought and that Gordon Brown as the doctor in charge should have prevented the damage? Will voters be sceptical of a Labour Government bringing in Tory tax cuts that Gordon Brown very recently said were reckless?Jim Callaghan got interest rates to 5% in 1977 but they didn’t stay there. IMHO the price of petrol and the value of sterling are far more important to ordinary people than the rate of interest which tend to affect speculators. Also this mysterious 5000 block vote for the Labour Party at Glenrothes may have further to run.
Wolf , I now read that Labour knew all along from “Private Polling” that they were going to win-Gordon effect, loyalty etc etc. So they kept stum & let Salmond brag his way to disaster.
All very strange.
Having read this, (and finally stopped laughing) and the comments on it ,I cannot understand why it’s not LibDems on 30 & Labour on 20.
I wonder if Clegg’s strategy is the right one.He could have cleaned up on the Left of Centre vote by now.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/09/barack-obama-gordon-brown?commentpage=1&commentposted=1
David Bowtell
“Figures in the poll not unexpected; the pre-budget report is going to be crucial as I suspect some well directed tax cuts could come into the frame further discomforting the Tories.”
I have to dissagree with you on this – When Darling opens his mouth at the prebudget report he will have to let the cat out of the bag just what a financial mess the country is in. In fact the figures he will give out will be among the most humiliating ever uttered by a Chancellor.
This from a Chancellor who only 6 months ago assured everyone that there wouln’t be any recession and everything in the garden was rosey. Now Government debt is out of control, unemployment is soaring and tax revenues have collapsed.
I don’t see any upside in the prebudget report for Labour only a huge downside.
Colin,
Thanks for the link…all I can say is ouch! I never could have believed that Guardian readers who I thought of a much more forgiving of Gordon Brown be so unanimous condmation of him. I have posted this thought before, but I still think that Gordon brown is becoming a Maggie Thatcher for Labour, you either love him or hate him. This maybe okay for now…but in future it will contaminate the labour brand like Margaret Thatcher contaminates the Conservative brand.
KTL – I don’t see why. The budget position is better than in 1997, and some of the National debt is in the form of bank assets that can down down as well as up, as they say. It will get worse no doubt, but there is plenty of scope to borrow with reasonable safety – much mor so than at the time of the last recession. The numbers are always bigger – its the percentages that count.
We are in a period of flux when idealogies are being challenged. So far Brown has taken up the challenge but Cameron appears wrong footed. This could change, but nothing is certain in the new world we find ourselves in.
If we were to believe the 3% swing from Tory to Labour in Glenrothes was is reflected all over the country, Labour would be around 9% ahead. I think Gordon Brown was very fortunate in that the by-election was virtually held in his home turf.
Maybe we’ll see a repeat of 1979 next time, with the Conservatives winning the election but Labour bucking the trend in much of Scotland?
Yet again, one not so good poll for Labour and the election is being called again already, even though the poll was taken before events. Then again a poll means more when predicting an election than actual votes,doesn’t it? “Labour will still have a chance at the next election as long as Cameron keeps saying nothing on policy and he has his mate as would be chancellor”. I would like to thank the lifelong Conservative voter on Conservativehome for the last sentence.
Anyone seen or heard from Sceptic Peg or is he still partying hard with Johnboy and Salmond?
Well well!!! What a few strange comments directed at my submission!!!!! I do not think this site should really have submissions directed personally towards any contributor – that’s not what it’s about but I think I’m entitled to correct untrue comments directed at me and then perhaps we can be sensible and cut oute personal attacks on each other and respect each others opinions!!
Firstly I am not a Lib Dem, secondly I most certainly am not a PPC for Labour, never have been nor never would be!!!! There are quite a few people called Richard who live in George Osborne’s constituency you know!! How one chooses to vote should be based on educated consideration of all those seeking election and not some pre disposed bigotted opinion that any one particular party is going to be best for the country throughout a lifetime!! I presume those making the comments are agitated Tories who dont appear to like factual comment, they never seem to get the facts straight do they!!! (Tongue in cheek!!)
It really shouldn’t matter to any of us on here what our political preferences are – educated debate about the polls is what this site is about and how differing political ideas and policies might affect people’s future voting intention.
My earlier submission was factual – 98% of the UK population have less than £50,000 in savings and in the real world all these pensioners that some talk about on here with lots of savings just don’t exist!! The vast majority of pensioners have little or no savings at all, not becasue they are irresponsible but because they have perhaps not been as fortunate as sosme of us. Most people born before 1944 who are now of pensionable age were not lucky enough to have an income that allowed them to save.
Anyone with a modicum of intelligence knows that the reason the UK has a poor savings to earnings ratio is because the greater proportion of working people in the UK do not earn enough to save much of their monthly income. Don’t forget the Tories have been the political party of choice and in power for the majority of time in this country since real politics began.
As one of the 2%, interest on my savings will be hammered for sure but I’d far rather see hard working men and women with mortgages have a few thousand extra in their pockets to spend over the next 12 months rather than me stick a few more bob in the bank because I for one certainly wouldn’t be spending it to help the economy out because I’ve got everything I need.
In a recession, the economy needs people to spend not stick a few extra bob in the bank, that is why Labour,Tories the and Lib Dems are advocating tax cuts.
Tax cuts now will lead to higher tax’s in the future so what a problem that is going to be for either Brown or Cameron – Tax rises or cuts in services – neither are going to be popular are they! Politically unpopular choices to be made in the next parliament for sure!
Understanding how the economy ticks is about understanding everyones ecomomics, not just those in a similar financial position to ourselves.
Can we just stick to polls and the implications? Anthony, can you put up a parallel site for those who wish to indulge in wish fulfilment and party political broadcasts?
Alec:
“Has anyone got a clear idea why the Glenrothes vote was so badly misjudged by everyone.”
Yes, and the hindsight could be all wrong as well.
Suppose the Glasgow East election had never happened.
The narrative now would be that the SNP are continuing to gain significant advances even in a safe, formerly mining, Labour seat with a huge majority and in Brown’s backyard against a strong local candidate despite local government challenges. The SNP honeymoon is apparently endless.
Remember that the excuses/explanations focusing on their own narrative of anti-incumbency that we hear comes from the political parties themselves.
We are told that the successful candidate is, or is perceived to be, his own man and distances himself from some Labour party policy, and that he is not “a politician.” He is also personally well known in the constituency. I take it that local people who know him are confident that he won’t be much in the company of Russian busnessmen and hedge fund managers. Nor is it likely that he will be making the most of his expenses and employing his whole family.
The days when most voting was tribal, and it was openly acknowledged that a “good” candidate was worth only 1000 votes are long gone. In the second SP election a “good” man in every sense of the word gained the largest personal vote and the largest majority. Thousands who rejected his socialist views voted for him time after time, and even more did so after he was expelled from the Labour party.
Scottish voters do not want “an ordinary sort of guy” they know that “an honest man’s abune them a’.”
Now I do not suggest that the personal reputation of the Labour candidate was necessarily the most important among the “local factors” that hindsight tells us were what determined the result. It certainly helped.
As an apprentice accountant I was taught to consider evidence by asking the question “Is this consistent with everything else I know?” It is consistent with everything we know that such considerations could have been the major factor in Glasgow East.
Maybe the reputation of the former MP and the Labour Party as a whole (regardless of the candidate) in Glasgow East was tarnished to such an extent that the electorate gave up on them and the SNP was a handy vehicle for punishment.
If so, it could be permanent, even while the SNP fail to hold onto their improved share of the vote in Glenrothes.
Now I have no idea how different the perception of the Labour party may be in the two constituencies. Perhaps those who have canvassed both can tell us. The explanation above does, however fit all the facts and if the other explanations are unsatisfactory, then as Sherlock Holmes often told Dr Watson, it must be the right one.
There may be better explanations than mine but the question you ask needs to be answered. That the result was badly misjudged is in itself a fact that needs explanation even more than does the result.
My prediction for Glasgow East was wrong too. To me it really was unimaginable that Labour could lose in a constituency like that or a majority of that size. The SNP should be asking why they got so lucky in Glasgow East rather than why they failed in Glenrothes.
Had it not been for Glasgow East, the Glenrothes result would have been unremarkable. The SNP may still be on an upward trend, though not one so steep as it had seemed.
Richard
Apologies for assuming your “(Tatton Constituency)” was a personal identifier of some sort-and then putting two & two together to make five!
I disagree profoundly with your ideas about the role & effect of personal savings in the macro-economy.
There is plenty of data available on this -and indeed on the UK savings trends & background.
We must each draw our own conclusions from it.
Let us both see -along with the rest of the electorate-what stimulus packages are advocated by each party.
We can then judge which seems most credible…..and vote accordingly.
Richard your argument seems to be based on a totally inaccurate statistic. You say “98% of people in this country have less than £50,000 in savings”. i.e. 2% have more. However the 1997 BBA figures show that 2% of personal savings accounts are for £50,000 and above which is something completely different. Many persons holding less than £50,000 in one account hold more than £50,000 in total!
Labour mounted a spin operation in Glenrothes and the SNP played into their hands. It was one they could never win. I agree with the comments above above how Glasgow East changed expectations.
There is no precedent for having a by election at the bottom of the PM’s garden. We could never expect the locals to give their own boy a kick. There is a boost for any high profile person in their own area and you don’t get more high profile than the PM. There would never be such a big swing. Its difficult to assess but perhaps they did very well all things considered.
Plus the SNP were incumbents both locally and in Scotland. Labour played the seat as if they were the oppostion. They won’t be able to do that against the Tories in England. The choice of the leader of the council as the SNP candidiate made them even more vulnerable.
Salmond made mistakes. But I suspect he won’t make them again. There is an argument for suggesting it might have been better for Labour if Salmond nothad a awake up call.
There are questions now over whether it was just the local boy effect or whether concerns about both independence and SNP incumbency played a part in the progress being less than that seen in Glasgow. These are thing which Salmond might otherwise have been unaware of. I suspect he will now realise he has to defend his record rather than just oppose Westminster and may well have to reconsider his approach to independence.
I didn’t realise this thread was for discussing the merits of various party policies.
This poll seems just about bang on the money. The Tories seem to be in this range and Labour at the bottom of the 30s.
I imagine Cameron will be relieved. The real deteriation for Labour is not likely to show in the polls until next year.
Alec
KTL – I don’t see why. The budget position is better than in 1997, and some of the National debt is in the form of bank assets that can down down as well as up, as they say.
Yes the budget position is better than in 1997 but not if you include all the bank bailout money.(Northern Rock, recent bailouts)
In addition by 1997 the budget/debt situation was improving year on year,whereas now its going south extremely quickly.
I keep hearing Brown/Darling say that Britain’s debt situation is nowhere near as bad as France, Germany, US etc but I also hear the IMF say the UK is in a uniquely perilous position because of the level of Government debt, so who is right?
it will be interesting to see how the polls react to 3 things over the next few weeks
1) The interest rate drop
2) The pre budget announcement – which may include tax cuts
3) The Queens speech
Anthony: We do seem to be getting a lot of long winded party political broadcasts on here, partic richard (Tatton Const). Even Mike “THE INAPPROPRIATE CAPITALS” Richardson does mainly keep things relevent to the POLLS !
The voting in Glasgow developed further into a two horse race: the Conservatives, LibDems and others came nowhere! Labour won easily but the ant-Labour vote (in this case the Scots Nats) went up significantly.
It does not mean that the voting elsewhere, especialy in England and Wales, will reflect this but the same forces may still be at work in an effort, where it matters, to get the Labour candidate out. The main beneficiaries would be the Conservative party.
SallyC goes too far when she says that Glenrothes was a seat the SNP could never win. In fact its demography should have been far more conducive to that party than Glasgow East. It is similar to the Central Fife constituency actually WON by the SNP in last year’s Holyrood elections – indeed if anything it’s actually a better division for the SNP than Central Fife on its older boundaries. I’ve noticed that Sally is very reluctant to put any construction on a poll or result which might be favourable to Labour but she overstates her case on this occasion. There’s no getting away from it – even if it doesn’t necessarily follow that Glenrothes will give Labour a dividend South of the border, it would be silly to call it a disappointing result for Labour in any way. More votes & share of the vote than the election-winning year of 2005? Come on. That’s clearly a good result for Labour.
I predicted the SNP would gain Glenrothes by about 2,600 back in September,
but withdrew the prediction in October saying it could be Labour by about 1,000-1,800, but too close to call.
I sensed the bank’s issue had damaged the SNP – underlining everything else, and I didn’t want to have to change my name to Gloy Plopwell.
Trevor Kavanagh in the Sun today is slagging of Brown, Osborne and Cameron in favour of Vince Cable!
Rupert Murdoch has a habit of backing winners, so if he is about to realign himself I think there may about to be a big change in the polls.
Frankly I’m shocked – will the LibDems would be happy to receive this support considering their past treatment at the hands of News Corp?
That would certainly be interesting.
Well back to the poll that started this thread and then got derailed by vain partisan efforts to spin the Glenrothes by election result one way or the other. The important thing about the ICM poll is not the Tory lead but the share of votes ….which continue to look remarkably stable despite all that has happened in the last two months. The Tories continue to score in the 40’s despite having no publicity recently save from the negative Osbourne affair , Labour at 30% are entitled to take heart from a continuing mini recovery but delude themselves if they think they can win an election during a recession for which fairly or unfairly they will get much of the blame and as for the poor old Lib Dems for whom ICM is usually their best poll where do they go from here?
Thomas wrote:”Trevor Kavanagh in the Sun today is slagging of Brown, Osborne and Cameron in favour of Vince Cable!
Rupert Murdoch has a habit of backing winners, so if he is about to realign himself I think there may about to be a big change in the polls.
Frankly I’m shocked – will the LibDems would be happy to receive this support considering their past treatment at the hands of News Corp?”
That has got to be the funniest thing I have ever read on here or any other political blog!!!!!! The main thing that the polls accurately reflect is that though cable is popular (mainly because of his Mr Bean quip – his economics are pretty dodgy according to real economists), Clegg is about as popular as Ming Dynasty Campbell – nice-but-useless. the only sensible thing in that statement from Thomas is that RM has a habit of backing winners, and no doubt he is carefully watching the polls as we do – no chance of him supporting the Libs then!
Doesn’t the Sun claim that it creates winners as much as it just wants to be seen backing them?
The Sun has until now been an acknowledged and vocal supporter of Cameron’s Conservatives (at least since it switched from supporting Blair), so for it to be so openly scathing about the shadow chancellor is serious, but does it indicate a shift in stance?
As an enterprise its’ views carry more weight than any individual economist, so it will be interesting to watch the tone of reporting over the next few weeks.
Perhaps it should be renamed picking winners, like a 1970s industrial policy.
I’d say that the Sun either wants rid of Osborne or already knows that he is in doubt and so wants to be seen as either right or responsible if he gets the push.
It would be a typical Sun tactic to be critical of the person most likely to get the heave ho and then to claim credit or prescience.
Peter.
I didn’t manage to navigate from this report to a site giving a regional breakdown of this poll. I presume by subtraction that Others are on 9%, up 2%. I have pointed out in the past that it is problematic to aggregate voting intentions in England with those in Scotland, for reasons including the different parties involved. However, on the assumption that the ICM poll is Great Britain-wide, and in view of the Glenrothes by-election result, it would be interesting to find out what change ICM found in the SNP vote. But I guess that as they would get less than 50 respondents saying they intend to vote SNP any change would be unlikely to be statistically significant.
Cable on the news today appearing to claim he is the inspiration for Labour’s tax-cutting policy.
Colin – Many thanks. Your opinions are respected too! I don’t espouse the politics of any party right now, none are worthy of my support! Mike – 98% of people, not savings accounts, in the UK have less than £50,000 in total savings – fact! (That’s around 1.2 million people)
Out of interest in 2006 there were only 2.9 million people in the whole of Europe worth more than £500,000 (excluding their homes) or 0.4% of the population of Europe.
The three main parties are advocating tax cuts today. The only type of tax cuts that will help the economy during a recession are tax cuts aimed at the poorest individuals, they are the most likely to spend the money and that is what the economy needs. Tax cuts to companies will not help the economy – they will not spend any savings in the high street nor will they employ more people in a recession. Tax cuts for the rich will not create additional spending because they already have everything. IMO the tax cuts need to be personal tax cuts and not for instance cuts in VAT because you can cut VAT all you like but if someone hasn’t got any money they won’t be buying anything! If the working and middle classes are given a little extra in their pockets they are likely to spend it. Whoever comes up with personal tax cuts will see a rise in popular support of a couple of percent – The Tories are best placed to make a positive move here, but will they have the courage? Which party is going to work it out first I wonder!!?
Anthony
When is the next YouGov poll out ?
Populus poll for the Times has party standings of
Con 41
Lab 35
LD 16
Very interesting given that only two months ago Populus had a 28% Tory lead
KTL – The regular Telegraph one is the end of the month. Sunday Times will be earlier, but I don’t know if it’s this weekend or the next.
M – no they didn’t. MORI showed a 28 point Tory lead, two months ago Populus were showing a 16 point lead.
i don’t support any particular party and am not surprised to see the latest populus poll as cheaper petrol, cheaper mortgage and some targeted tax cuts in the near future all have a feel good factor for me.
i’m sure others feel the same.
let me be the first to predict that the recession will be shorter and shallower than most are predicting and that the next parliament will be hung.
Barnaby:
“More votes & share of the vote than the election-winning year of 2005? Come on. That’s clearly a good result for Labour.”
It certainly is considering the recession, mid term etc. The late swing must have come from only loosely attached former LibDem voters who chose to support Labour.
It’s a good result for Labour, but a very bad one for the LibDems who do well in nearby constituencies. Large numbers of their voters must have been persuaded that it was very much a two horse race and while they might vote LibDem so long as the Conservatives were not in contention they were willing to back Labour if Labour really needed their votes to keep out something worse.
It would seem that LibDem voters, in this constituency at least, were not as ready as some have suggested here to support the SNP as an equivalent to the LibDems for the negative voter looking for the party best placed to give one or both of the bigger parties a kicking.
I’d like to know why the LibDems are doing so badly, and not just in Glenrothes, and I won’t be satisfied that I understand voter churn in Scotland until sombody gives me a credible explanation.
Why do people vote LibDem? Why is the LibDem vote soft? Is it all tactical? Are there no “real” LibDems?
“Why do people vote LibDem? Why is the LibDem vote soft? Is it all tactical? Are there no “real” LibDems?”
The answer to this depends on whether you support a tribal top-down two-party system or pluralist politics in which a range of views can coexist competitively.
Aren’t we all liberal democrats?
Alec / KTL,
The fiscal position today is in no way comparable to that in 1997, when the buidget was in surplus and the national debt was falling rapidly both in absolute terms and as a share of GDP.
I believe that you may be confusing it with the position in 1993, but that was AFTER the recession, not immediately beforehand.
It is undoubtedly the case that the UK is fiscally ill-prepared for the recession, and that the responsibility for that falls squarely on the shoulders of the man who was Chancellor for a decade after inheriting the strongest fiscal position (both in terms of budget and Debt/GDP) for well over a century.
It will be interesting to see how the public respond to “unfunded tax cuts” – whomever proposes them.
Paul H-J
Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde and the Independent’s chief political commentator Steve Richards speak at an Institute for Public Policy Research event today looking at whether Labour can win the next election.
Where can you buy eye of newt and toe of frog?