ICM have a new poll out in the Sunday Telegraph. The topline figures, with changes from the previous ICM poll, are CON 43%(+1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 18%(-3).

The poll shows no significant change in Labour and Conservative support from the previous ICM poll, conducted a fortnight or so ago for the Guardian. The Liberal Democrats are down, and in hindsight the sudden 4 point Lib Dem boost we saw in that previous poll looks like a rogue; it has not been reflected in any other poll.

While there is no significant change here (ICM only briefly showed the Tory lead falling into single figures in the first place), by being both above the psychologically important points of a double figure lead and a lead that on a uniform swing would give the Conservatives a very solid majority, it will act to give a dampen down the narrative of a Labour recovery, indeed the Sunday Telegraph are reporting it as a “reality check”.

The report on the Telegraph website doesn’t give the dates of the research, but if it is in line with when ICM normally carry out Sunday Telegraph polls it would have been done on Wednesday and Thursday – in other words, prior to the Glenrothes result and any boost Labour receive from it. If that is the case, then we’ll have to wait for later polls to see if there is a “Glenrothes effect” on Labour support.

UPDATE: The poll was conducted on the 5th and 6th of November, Wednesday and Thursday, so was indeed before the Glenrothes result.

61 Responses to “Tories retain an election winning lead with ICM”

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  1. I didn’t manage to navigate from this report to a site giving a regional breakdown of this poll. I presume by subtraction that Others are on 9%, up 2%. I have pointed out in the past that it is problematic to aggregate voting intentions in England with those in Scotland, for reasons including the different parties involved. However, on the assumption that the ICM poll is Great Britain-wide, and in view of the Glenrothes by-election result, it would be interesting to find out what change ICM found in the SNP vote. But I guess that as they would get less than 50 respondents saying they intend to vote SNP any change would be unlikely to be statistically significant.

  2. Cable on the news today appearing to claim he is the inspiration for Labour’s tax-cutting policy.

  3. Colin – Many thanks. Your opinions are respected too! I don’t espouse the politics of any party right now, none are worthy of my support! Mike – 98% of people, not savings accounts, in the UK have less than £50,000 in total savings – fact! (That’s around 1.2 million people)
    Out of interest in 2006 there were only 2.9 million people in the whole of Europe worth more than £500,000 (excluding their homes) or 0.4% of the population of Europe.

    The three main parties are advocating tax cuts today. The only type of tax cuts that will help the economy during a recession are tax cuts aimed at the poorest individuals, they are the most likely to spend the money and that is what the economy needs. Tax cuts to companies will not help the economy – they will not spend any savings in the high street nor will they employ more people in a recession. Tax cuts for the rich will not create additional spending because they already have everything. IMO the tax cuts need to be personal tax cuts and not for instance cuts in VAT because you can cut VAT all you like but if someone hasn’t got any money they won’t be buying anything! If the working and middle classes are given a little extra in their pockets they are likely to spend it. Whoever comes up with personal tax cuts will see a rise in popular support of a couple of percent – The Tories are best placed to make a positive move here, but will they have the courage? Which party is going to work it out first I wonder!!?

  4. Anthony

    When is the next YouGov poll out ?

  5. Populus poll for the Times has party standings of

    Con 41
    Lab 35
    LD 16

    Very interesting given that only two months ago Populus had a 28% Tory lead

  6. KTL – The regular Telegraph one is the end of the month. Sunday Times will be earlier, but I don’t know if it’s this weekend or the next.

    M – no they didn’t. MORI showed a 28 point Tory lead, two months ago Populus were showing a 16 point lead.

  7. i don’t support any particular party and am not surprised to see the latest populus poll as cheaper petrol, cheaper mortgage and some targeted tax cuts in the near future all have a feel good factor for me.

    i’m sure others feel the same.

    let me be the first to predict that the recession will be shorter and shallower than most are predicting and that the next parliament will be hung.

  8. Barnaby:

    “More votes & share of the vote than the election-winning year of 2005? Come on. That’s clearly a good result for Labour.”

    It certainly is considering the recession, mid term etc. The late swing must have come from only loosely attached former LibDem voters who chose to support Labour.

    It’s a good result for Labour, but a very bad one for the LibDems who do well in nearby constituencies. Large numbers of their voters must have been persuaded that it was very much a two horse race and while they might vote LibDem so long as the Conservatives were not in contention they were willing to back Labour if Labour really needed their votes to keep out something worse.

    It would seem that LibDem voters, in this constituency at least, were not as ready as some have suggested here to support the SNP as an equivalent to the LibDems for the negative voter looking for the party best placed to give one or both of the bigger parties a kicking.

    I’d like to know why the LibDems are doing so badly, and not just in Glenrothes, and I won’t be satisfied that I understand voter churn in Scotland until sombody gives me a credible explanation.

    Why do people vote LibDem? Why is the LibDem vote soft? Is it all tactical? Are there no “real” LibDems?

  9. “Why do people vote LibDem? Why is the LibDem vote soft? Is it all tactical? Are there no “real” LibDems?”

    The answer to this depends on whether you support a tribal top-down two-party system or pluralist politics in which a range of views can coexist competitively.

    Aren’t we all liberal democrats?

  10. Alec / KTL,

    The fiscal position today is in no way comparable to that in 1997, when the buidget was in surplus and the national debt was falling rapidly both in absolute terms and as a share of GDP.

    I believe that you may be confusing it with the position in 1993, but that was AFTER the recession, not immediately beforehand.

    It is undoubtedly the case that the UK is fiscally ill-prepared for the recession, and that the responsibility for that falls squarely on the shoulders of the man who was Chancellor for a decade after inheriting the strongest fiscal position (both in terms of budget and Debt/GDP) for well over a century.

    It will be interesting to see how the public respond to “unfunded tax cuts” – whomever proposes them.

    Paul H-J

  11. Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde and the Independent’s chief political commentator Steve Richards speak at an Institute for Public Policy Research event today looking at whether Labour can win the next election.

    Where can you buy eye of newt and toe of frog?

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