There are contrasting poll findings on Tessa Jowell’s future in the cabinet. A snap ICM poll of 410 people for Saturday’s Guardian found support for Jowell – 44% think she should stay in the cabinet while 29% think she should go. In contrast a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday today found 55% of people thought she should resign, while 19% thought she should stay. BPIX are not members of the BPC and don’t release the full tables and questions of their polls, so there is no way of knowing what might account for the difference.

The BPIX poll also included several questions about the specifics of the allegations against David Mills – people overwhelmingly thought that David Mills was dishonest (by 60% to 1%) and that he had accepted a bribe (by 60% to 4%) – public opinion on Tessa Jowell was slightly more favourable, but not by much. 12% of people believe that she didn’t know about the payment of £350,000 to her husband and only 12% of think she is honest.

Voting intentions in the BPIX poll, with changes from their last poll in January, are CON 39%(+1), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 16%(nc). While the Lib Dem figure is low compared to other pollsters the bigger picture does match the trend shown by ICM and YouGov in recent days – that the Lib Dems are now back to the level they were at immediately prior to Kennedy’s resignation. The subsequent damage done by the revelations about Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes’s private lives did not do them any long term damage. There is not yet any sign of a Lib Dem boost from their new leader – perhaps because Tessa Jowell’s troubles have dominated the political news coverage in Ming Campbell’s first few days as leader.

BPIX also asked a hypothetical voting intention with Gordon Brown as Labour leader – CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 13%. As ever, questions like this are just hypothetical and you shouldn’t read too much into it, but they are good figures for Gordon Brown. Most recent polls of this type have shown Labour performing less well with Brown in charge, and it is the first such question since Cameron became Tory leader not to show a Conservative lead.


Comments are closed.