There is a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday with voting intentions (with changes from their previous poll a fortnight ago) of CON 45%(-1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 13%(nc).

Again there is no significant change, despite the return to normal politics and the Osborne funding affair. However, it is a larger lead than most other polls are showing. The previous BPIX poll also showed a larger Tory lead: 16 points when other polls were showing their lead dropping to around 10 points.

In hindsight, having seen several other polls putting the lead at a lower level I had expected BPIX to come into line. It hasn’t and unless random sample error just happens to have spat out two polls with unusually high Tory leads in a row, presumably there must be something in BPIX’s methodology to explain the larger Tory lead. Since we don’t have details of it though, it’s impossible to delve any further.

The poll also asked about the BBC in the wake of the scandal over Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross’s answerphone message to Andrew Sachs. 73% said they thought the current licence fee was unjustified. 88% said the call to Andrew Sachs was unacceptable, 66% thought Brand should have resigned, 60% thought Ross should have resigned.


22 Responses to “BPIX show Tory lead of 14 points”

  1. Lib Dems holding firm here.

  2. The poll also asked about the BBC in the wake of the scandal over Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross’s answerphone message to Andrew Sachs. 73% said they thought the current licence fee was unjustified. 88% said the call to Andrew Sachs was unacceptable, 66% thought Brand should have resigned, 60% thought Ross should have resigned.

    Leave it to the tabloids. Al-Beeb have had it too easy for fifteen years, and it will come back to bit their collective posteriors.

    I will stand buy my 60-seat Tory majority at the next election. [That said, I have lost £20 on a bet that Samit Patel would help England win the Stanford competition…! :( ]

    As Mike Smithson says: the only poll to follow is the one that shows Labour in the worst light. [Or words to such effect! :) ]

    P.S. Hyphenate! Surely it is answer-phone…? ;)

  3. As a Tory supporter I’d like to believe this poll but its out of step with all the others in terms of lead amount. So to me its a rogue. However it does show little change from the last BPIX poll so it does fit in with other polls that also show little movement in the last couple of weeks.

  4. The only other pollsters that have you to produce a poll showing the Tories advantage narrower is Populus. Last Populus poll has the Conservatives with a lead of 15% but it was conducted back in early October, just after the Tory coference. The next Populus poll will be out on Tuesday, I think? It should be interesting to see what it shows.

  5. Previously, I pointed out that 7 or 8% have switched back and forth from Labour to Conservatives and then back to Labour in a period of less than a year. And that this shows the fragile nature of the support from this proportion of voters.

    I should have also have added that there is about 3% that are switching between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems or others. This does not, of course, help Labour. But I think it does show the potential for change. And even though a recent poll indicates the Conservatives are doing well in the marginal seats it would not need a big swing for that to change.

    There can be no doubt that the Conservatives are well on track to win the next election. But with the fickle nature of the support from 10/11% of voters for any party the Conservatives might win without having an overall majority. But there again the potential is easily there for a landslide Conservative victory.

  6. They should win by about 42% to 34%, and do well enough in target seats to achieve a majority of 25-35.

    But, as always, in life. It could do something else.

  7. On share of vote, the Lib Dems could be facing meltdown.
    (15-16%).
    This rise in Labour support since September, simultanous with reasonably successful Tory figures remaining (even when they don’t put over a case), does indicate there will be a contest, and a squeeze.

    Although feasible with a hard ball campaign,
    it would, however, still be a tall order for the Tories to gain more than about 17-20 Lib Dem seats.

  8. It will be a shame if he beats the SNP in the Scottish by-election by using these underhand tactics we have seen in the last few weeks.

  9. AND WHAT UNDERHAND TACTICS ARE THEY, PRAY? (note upper case!)

  10. Labour could over-take the Tories if the latter fail to sharpen their economic narrative, but it’s still the less likely result.

  11. “There can be no doubt that the Conservatives are well on track to win the next election.”

    With mid-term leads of 25% not enough to secure the outcome of general elections in years past this statement must be one of the more self-serving partisan outbursts yet seen on this site!

    Discounting the LibDems from assumptions of forming the next government any bookmaker opening their book at this time should offer slight odds-on for a Labour plurality, so I must raise my concern that astroturfers are increasingly dominating these comment threads with idle and unsubstantiated speculation for directly partisan purposes. I mean, this site is threatens to become a parody of itself if wishful thinking along the lines of ‘x could happen’ becomes standard.

    Similarly, I see little reason for commenting on the output of BPIX’s surveys until they publish the content of their research to allow independent adjudication of its value. The Mail on Sunday should be ashamed of lowering its journalistic standards by employing this company, though this may benefit their bottom line it undermines the newspaper industry as a whole and it diminishes public confidence in our national institutions further – all this at a time when the issue is front and centre on their own pages!

  12. Thomas – “Discounting the LibDems from assumptions of forming the next government any bookmaker opening their book at this time should offer slight odds-on for a Labour plurality”

    You should tell the bookmakers immediately Thomas…
    http://odds.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/uk/next-general-election/most-seats

  13. Anthony,
    the betting market on the next election has been open since the last one closed so there is already a large amount already wagered which has influenced the odds in the meantime.

    The current market position does not change the facts that the political advantages rest with the incumbent, nor does it change historical data that an oppositional lead of 10pts this far out from a potential election is not usually enough to outweigh the advantages of incumbency.

    If you followed the market movements you’d be advising me to open my own book, but I accept this is more Mike Smithson’s area of speciality than yours.

  14. Labour would have more seats than the Tories if the shares of the vote showed a narrow Tory lead.
    But,
    I suspect if the swing is above about 5.5%, the Tories will be able to unravel some of the electoral bias against them through targeting.

  15. I have posted several times recently suggesting that political opinions may “flip” in response to major events like the financial crisis, rather than change gradually over time in smooth trends. In which case, we are going to have another series of similar polls, probably for at least months, until something major happens.

    Apart from any moral considerations, arbitrage in the political betting market is beyond me!

  16. The Polls are really not much use in predicting the results of a future General Election at some 18 mths distance.

    First they express opinions about present intentions, not future ones.

    Second they are not conducted in the context of the intense daily political exchange of a GE Campaign.

    The Party Leaders will be exposed to much more scrutiny then-by the Press …and by each other.

    I believe that Brown will at a disadvantage in those circumstances.

  17. Towards the end of 2004 Labour were polling very similiarly to what the election outcome was in May 2005. What ancient archives are you examining, Thomas, when you say that in the past a 25% lead in mid term is not enough of a sure indicator of who will win the next election?

  18. Thomas always sounds like a Lib Dem, it would appear consumed by hate of the Conservatives, and doesn’t assess facts in an objective way.

    25% lead in mid-term is not necessary to win an election.
    Nor is it a guarantee.

    But if it is sustained over a long period (like much of 1993-97), it very probably is.

    The Tory lead reached about 20% in May 1977 – and then shrunk – down to 2% by the end of the year. It widened again during the Winter of Discontent from January 1979.

    But it’s not just the lead – it’s the share.
    If both parties are high – like in 1978/79, but one of them is polling 47/50%, then it doesn’t need a 25 point lead to look likely to win.

  19. What will be interesting is the ‘Obama-effect’ with Cameron already citing how the USA’s desire for change far outweighed Obama’s lack of experience.
    It will be equally interesting to see how Brown explains how 52% of the american electorate were wrong!
    The more that Cameron can now maintain an offensive that focuses on all the negatives of failures of this Labour administration, now that Osbourne, Brand, Ross…. and Obama are no longer keeping Brown’s failures of the front page, the better.

  20. It seems like there were some interesting results in the Senate aswell.
    Elizabeth Dole seems to have made a mistake which backfired badly in North Carolina.

    What she should have said is something like,
    “look, the Democrats could have control of all levels of government. You need me there to keep a check on it and provide value for money.”

  21. Oh please, JJB, anyone who isn’t biased towards the Conservatives (as you are) will sound relatively biased against them. I am open-minded about the parties, so obviously I won’t match up to your ‘objective’ view!

    I will say however that I am not impressed with the conservative front bench.

    It is an important point about the relationship between poll share and poll leads – with a strong third party (at least in global terms) the current conservative party lead is certainly not any guarantee (though this must also be weighed against distortions created by our single-member constituency system).

    Furthermore I think it is important to consider polling trends and how this reflects their strategic positions or the respective parties – here the Conservatives look vulnerable at this time.

  22. There are many people on here with very different political views who are able to discuss things in a factual way.
    I agree with one of your points – Osborne should be dumped.