MORI’s October poll has topline figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 45%(-7), LAB 30%(+6), LDEM 14%(+2). It was conducted between the 17th and 19th October.

There are huge changes from their last poll which was conducted in mid-September. It is hard to read anything into them though, since that poll was the rather freakish one with Conservatives on 52% and the Lib Dems on 12%. It was a far higher Conservative share than any other poll in September and – as I said at the time – probably a freak.

Still, even putting last month’s poll aside it’s still a very healthy boost for Labour since the summer when MORI had them languishing on 24%, but the Conservative level of support remains in the mid 40s and their lead in double figures. Meanwhile, despite coming back two points from last month’s strange poll, the Lib Dems are still at a comparatively low 14%.

18 Responses to “Ipsos MORI’s October Monitor”

  1. Again to me 45/30/14 is still a great result for the Tories given the changed media narrative in recent weeks.

    I doubt this fuss over Osbourne is going to do much lasting damage either as I think Martin Bell (mr anti-corruption) said its just a storm in a teacup.

    PMQ’s should be tasty today – I’ll be expecting one or two labour backbench questions teasing about corfu presumably planted by he who must no be named…

  2. This looks reasonably close to reality for the dates it was conducted.

    I still think it is hard to predict how the economic turbulence is likely to influence party support until we get a clearer indication of how bad it will get and who exactly is to blame, so we are likely to continue to recieve variable results.

    If this poll is to be believed the I would put Labour’s rise down to some sort of endorsement for Brown’s reshuffle and the jettisoning of unpopular and unnecessary initiatives (SATS etc) rather than his handling of the financial crisis – ie a ‘Mandelson effect’.

    I await the effects of the Mandelson-related troubles George Osborne has got his party into…

  3. good poll for the tories and more realistic, but it is still not out of the picture that the tories will hit 50+% at an election, the last poll which shoed 52% was most likely a reaction to the drubing that labour was taking in every media type about and yes martin bell is probley right a storm in a tea cup no lasting damage conservative lead going up in november.

  4. It’s not great judgement.
    Too many of these mistakes.
    Cummulatively, the public could be making a mental note.
    But Thomas, don’t get too excited – it’s the economy stupid.

    But I’d rather our Chief Economic Spokesman didn’t indulge himself on hideous yaughts as what I’m afraid, will be, an intense recession setting in.

    If we can’t manage the fall out – which I suspect we can, then there’s a silver lining. A more experienced Shadow Chancellor installed well before the election.

  5. Take a holiday in Middlesbrough next time George. Have a look at the Cleveland Hills.

  6. I think the media are happy to have something else to focus on apart from the credit crunch, and the Osbourne story has all the elements of a good press scandal so it should run for more than one news cycle – the Sundays will want their say.

    If he can’t answer the questions as to why he went back to the yacht with the Conservative’s cief fundraiser – if it wasn’t to solicit donations – then he might have to go. If that happens – yes it’s a big if – then Cameron will be badly damaged and it will take a lot of the shine off of his poll leads.

    If it narrows to a 7-9% lead some of the polls are showing then we are into hung parliament/competitive election territory.

  7. He has denied it, so I have to take it that.

  8. I suspect uncomfortable as it is for osborne, this won’t particularly hurt the Tories, particularly as Mandellson was there too.

    I think the public reaction will be a plague on all there houses.

    The man in the street looking at a headline that reads something like;

    ” Labour and Tory front benchers holiday with banker on Russian Billionaires yacht while repossessions soar”

    will merely have his worst impressions about politicians confirmed.


  9. I wouldn’t describe 30% as a “healthy boost” for Labour. Isn’t their bedrock support usually figured at around 30%? Certainly it’s an improvement on the mid-twenties returns of a few months ago, but still far from “healthy” and showing no real signs of further improvement.

    It will be interesting to see how the Mandelson/Osborne silliness pans out. My initial reading is that BBC/Guardian/Indy efforts to elevate this non-event into a sleaze scandal are merely making the public think “more Dark Lord nonsense from Mandelson”. But we’ll see.

  10. I note some of you asking whether Yachtgate will effect the Conservative percentages. I hardly think so due to what I heard on a local radio show. Listeners were asked to ring up about their views on the subject. One rang up and said he was going to still vote Conservative as, and this is his quote, “most voters know the Tories are bent anyway, so, like myself, expect things like this to happen to them from time to time,so I will still vote for them regardless”. So even if any more things that may be questionable do come from the Conservatives from now until the election ,I cannot see them losing any political ground. Because of what has happened in the past, it is as if people actually expect them to do it anyway, so it wont have an effect on whether they will vote for them or not.

    I only think the press has blown Yachtgate up because a group of very rich people Osbourne, Rothschild and Feldman have fell lout with each other. Where usually this is done behind closed doors, this has been done in full view of the public via the papers.

  11. Do us a favour will you – PLEASE don’t call it Yachtgate……..

    The tendency to call anything mildly controversial or salacious ….gate is a most irritating modern habit.

    Thanks! :)

  12. The detailed data from this poll is on the Ipsos Mori website .Surprisingly the raw data is pretty good for the LibDems . If this data had been for an ICM poll with ICM weighting for past vote and ICM ‘s certainty to vote weightings the LibDems headline figure would have been 20%
    Looking at how people voted in 2005 compared to now , the LibDems gain 30 voters from Labour and lose only 6 , they lose 15 to Conservatives but gain 7 , these net changes indicate a headline figure for the LibDems of much higher than Mori’s 14% .

  13. Noting Peters last comments, I run a small catering establishment and have some newspapers around for guests to read. A few people (and I don’t know their affiliations) looked at the headlines and said ‘it didnt take long for Mandleson to start up again’ and these were headlines mainly about Osbourne!

  14. Adrian,

    I was in tesco on Tuesday getting a guardian and a polish guy beside me picked up a paper ( i think it was the mirror) with a picture of the villa and the yacht turned and said,

    “Look at this they are all at it…”

    given that he didn’t know who I was (few do even in my ward) I said,

    “Bloody politicians you can’t trust any of them”.

    I thought of saying something noble about public service but he was a big bloke.


  15. This whole “None Story” about yachts in Corfu is so ridiculous – it makes you wonder if nothing else has happened in the world ! Oh yes – i can think of one – the fact that the so called “world credit crunch” seems to be hurting us more than anywhere else – why would the Pound drop in value against the Dollar so much if the problem was worldwide ? Mmmmm. I think we all know whay and so does the British public – if the best Brown can do after so much TV airtime is a 15% gap then he’s finished !

  16. Weighted Moving Average 43:31:16. However now that it is obvious to the most bone-headed that we are in recession, the pound is crashing etc.. it is hard to see how the myth of Brown’s “economic competence” can be sustained.

  17. I agree with Mike “the oracle”, a 15% tory lead is not what one would have expected considering that Brown is supposed to be the saviour of the civilised world.

    And am I alone in thinking that his ‘do what it takes’ mantra is becoming more of an irritant than a soothing balm? I certainly dont buy into his ‘I go to bed… I wake every morning… thinking of how people cant pay their mortgages etc’ Brown has found a final straw and is clinging onto it with all his might!!

    Just a very general comment, nothing to do with this – or any other – blog. But does anyone know why the ‘polling intentions’ graphs on this website are still stuck on 10/10/2008, particularly as more recent values were entered and then removed?

  18. Tony – it’s to do with the caching to speed up the site. It probably means you’ve accessed the site from two different computers (or perhaps an ISP that switches you between different IP addresses). Depending on if you’ve commented here before and if it recognises you, the server will either pop up a nice fresh version of the page generated from a database of polling results, or serve up a stale one it prepared earlier.

    If you are seeing one from a fortnight ago, it means I’ve set it to check for new pages too infrequently.