A YouGov poll for Monday’s Daily Mirror has topline figures – with changes from the last YouGov poll a week ago – of CON 42%(-1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 14%(nc).

The change from the previous poll is not in itself significant, but it is a further narrowing of the Tory lead and, as with ComRes, crosses that symbolic line into a single figure lead. The eight point lead is also the lowest that the Conservatives have registered with any pollster since back in April.

I don’t have dates for the fieldwork, these figures are taken from the PA report, but I believe it was conducted at the same time as the BPIX poll: between Thursday and Saturday.


25 Responses to “YouGov: Lowest Tory lead since April”

  1. It will be interesting to see the full figures as with “Others” on only 10% I suspect that Labour will have pulled ahead of the SNP for Westminster in Scotland, which if things don’t change that much could make Glenrothes particularly close.

    hopefully we will get a Glenrothes poll soon now that the conferences are over and the markets have settled a bit.

    Peter.

  2. YouGov had a 26% lead soon after Crewe and Nantwich I think, and many 20+.
    This is certainly a narrowing – Labour up from around 23% at the lowest.

    These figures do look a bit like what I imagined would happen when we got right up to the election.

    The challenge for both main parties, politically, seems to be for the Tories to sharpen up their economic narrative, and for Labour to see whether they might be able to rescue the whole situation against all the odds.

    I think it most likely will be the former, despite my own political views.

    The LD figure is squeezed again.

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  4. Mike – Thanks for posting that here, was curious.

  5. Compared with the average of YouGov Polls during two other periods :-

    The Tory Peak-8/5/08 to 18/09/08
    and
    The Brown Bounce-29/6/07 to 4/10/07

    This Poll is –
    From Tory Peak, -4 Cons/+9 Lab

    From Brown Bounce, +9 Cons/ -6 Lab

    So Labour are a long way behind the favourable perception of GB during his “Bounce”.

    Whilst Labour have substantially gained from the Tory Peak this summer, they have not done so entirely from Cons.

    During a period of intense favourable publicity for GB this Poll seems a strange, almost half hearted & grudging nod in his direction.

    I don’t really understand what it means.

    Time will tell.

  6. Mike. Could you explain to us, please, what(if any) influence a company has over a pollster when making a contract? Do they agree the format and objective of the poll? The date of publication? the questions asked? The order in which questions are put? The area covered? Etc. All these can have a profound effect on the results.If we don’t know, how can we judge the validity of the poll, in comparison with others?Mike Smithson is irate at the lack of this type of information re BPIX, which he therefore rejects.

  7. Anthony. Terribly sorry, I have done it again, so used to the other channel!!

  8. Anthony, please could you let us know when this poll was conducted, once you get the info?

    I would be interested to see if most of the fieldwork was done before Cameron’s opening attack on Friday.

    Thankyou.

    It does seem abit odd if it was done over exactly the same time frame as the BPIX, with replies coming in at the same rate on the same days to the same company.

  9. Nick Palmer has said on PB.com that the poll was slighlty earlier [Wednesday to Friday].
    Would I be right in assuming most replies would come in on Wednesday and very little on Friday.

  10. If this is the extent of the Brown Bounce then I don’t think the Tories have anything to worry about. We’ve had at least 2 weeks of the media coverage playing to Brown’s greatest strength and he can only get 3 or 4 points out of it – at least half of it from the Lib Dems. When the immediate sense of crisis dims Labour’s ratings can only decline again.

  11. Sally C – I spoke to Peter this morning, this one went live on Wednesday, so it began slightly earlier than the BPIX one.

    Collin – it depends on the contract. Some of the newspaper trackers have sort of joint ownership of the methodology, so the Times or the Independent would have a say if Populus or ComRes suddenly announced they were changing the way they did their tracker.

    Generally speaking, a client comes to a company wanting to find something out. Obviously it’s up to them who they want to ask in terms of whether it’s a poll of marginals, or London or Great Britain.

    Sometimes a client will have a list of questions ready, sometimes they will just have a list of things they want to ask about and want the company to put that into more formal questions. The company will then vet those questions, check they are fair and unbiased and so on – make suggestions about how to best to ask them, etc. The final questionnaire is agreed between the researcher and the client.

    The client has the final sign off, but obviously a researcher will also refuse to ask questions they think are unethical, so in reality if a client won’t agree to ethical questions then a pollster wouldn’t take their money!

    The date of publication and what they do with the data is up to the client, though if they grossly misrepresent the poll a company might issue a statement distancing themselves.

  12. what we could be seeing is a delay yougov field work was wensday to friday and BPIX was thursday to saturday so BPIX may have shown a slight bounce for camoron after he pulled the plug on the truce between the main parties.

  13. monthly average vote shere:

    CON 43.3 -0.1 ON LAST MONTH
    LAB 31.3 +3.5
    LD 14.9 -2.3
    OTH 10.5 -1.1

    a marked improvement for labour so far but will it continue, the conservatives seam to be holding their own on around 43.5-440 percent of the vote and most of labours votes seams to be coming from the lib dems who are very much a party on the edge (of loseing loadof seats come the election, but browns biggest test will come next year as the local elections get under way for english county’s and new in-coming unitry’s do i think browns polling will get better than this in some respects yes beacuse this is only a monthly based poll even if camorons rating were to dropthrough the floor he would still have a lead, but next month we will see on average camorons lead come down to around 6pts as the effects of his handleing of the banking faliuer come the to floor next months prediction CON 42% -1 LAB 34% +3 LD 14% -1 OTH 9% -1. but by december we should see an up-turn in the conservative vote as we slip into a shrinking economy, but all in all the tories are steady for now and labour are benifiting from the lib dems.

  14. sorry top line is ment to say 44.0% not 440

  15. As I said in an earlier thread, so far this year is looking very much like 1968 in terms of opinion polls.
    In May that year the Conservatives had a record 28% lead – by October it had gradually slumped to 8% (before jumping to 25.5% by December).

  16. There’s been a lot of discussion about the recent polls on political betting.com. Mike SMithson has been quoting Bob Worcester’s old dictum “Never mind the leads look at the shares.” If the Tories are over 40% Labour need to poll 38% to deny them a majority. The recent pattern seems to be that the Tories have a more or less hard 40% and Labour’s gains have primarily been at the expense of the LD’s who have been badly squeezed recently and the smaller parties, SNP, Plaid, Greens, BNP. The critical poll this week will be the You Gov marginals poll out on Wednesday. Previous such polls have shown the Tories doing much better in these critical seats, if that is still true then it means that in straight fights with the Tories Labour are going to get creamed and Cameron is on course for a majority of about 1979 levels.

    All of this is increasing the stakes in Glenrothes. I think this is going to be one of the most critical by-elections in British Political History, the moment when the Brown recovery either increases momentum or hits a brick wall!

  17. I think the British public have finally seen through the fascade from the conservatives. I have been a Labour supporter all my life & I was always confident that even when the Tory lead was over 20 points, Labour would overturn it. Not there yet but the steadying influence of Gordon Brown is getting through to the public especially with his handling of the banking crisis. That is what leadership is all about, & the influence He has had on other major world leaders shows that He has the brains & wherewithall to handle such a crisis.

  18. The Public already know that Brown bears some responsibility for our Banking Crisis because most commentaries highlight the failure of his 1997 tinkering with the regulatory regime, and the utter uselessness of FSA before Adair Turner arrived.

    The Public already know that Brown bears total responsibility for the inability to mount a fiscal stimulus ahead of recession, because most commentaries highlight his spending record & the resultant Government Debt.

    The big question is -do either of these things make any difference whatsoever in the Polls at present.

    On the evidence to date the answer would appear to be no…Public attitude appears to be- who cares who was at fault, and what difference does Government Borrowing make to me anyway?-who is going to get us out of it best?

    At present “Conservatives” do not seem to be the answer to that question.

    Perhaps it isn’t surprising that a nation which has binged on private credit for five or six years, should be uninterested in the government’s credit card balance.

    I have a feeling that Cameron will not retrieve the initiative until we are deep into recession, private sector job losses are mounting ,& public sector vs private sector tensions bubble to the surface again.

    Cameron’s “narrative” will be much simpler & understandable then.

  19. the impartial observer-

    hit a brick wall is my best bet

    as i stated in a previous post the conservative lead will go up again as soon as the country economic negitivity gets fully into gear, and from what im hearing on the news,papers, internet and other meaida it won’t be long conservative lead 20+ by january 2009, 22.5-25.0 by may 2009, unless the conservatives shoot them selves in the foot then knowbody knows

  20. Stuart, agreed.

    It seems Jim Murphy’s gloating triumphialism in the aftermath of the banking crisis may backfire on Labour. People’s jobs are at risk in RBS and HBOS and Labour were using this to score political points. Yes, the crisis may have but a dent in the SNP’s independence argument but that’s a debate for another day. For now people are more worried about their jobs and their homes.

  21. Yet another poll that needs to be ignored I see. Strange how you all know how the polls are going to go. Go back in the archives and check your own posts a few months back, many people on this thread were predicting 50%+ percentage points , around this time, for the Conservative and the end of Labour.

    Obviously the saying ” a week is a long time in politics” and “events” doesn’t apply here because you all know what is going to happen anyway.

    I await the next “outlier”.

  22. PS Noticed the conservative chief political editors column in the Sun quotes that the lead is now down to 6 points, is it a misquote, or has he been given pre-warning?

  23. PPS – ICM in The Guardian tomorrow 42/30/21. Unchanged Conservative/Labour Liberals up 4%.

  24. Anthony. Many thanks. Can the client decide the order of the questions, which seems to me crucial?Can the client suggest changes in wording, so that a similar question for one client can be subtly different from another?

  25. TJ jones- this may be a warning shot but the conservative lead will come down to around 8% next month and rise the month after current monthly lead for the conservative after tonights poll is still 12% so if an election was held tomorrow the conservatives would have a majority of around 74 bigger than labours current majority of around 42 if you take the seat changes into account.