There is a new ComRes poll in the Sunday Independent which has headline figures – with changes from ComRes’s previous poll in the Independent – of CON 40%(-1), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 16% (-2). The poll was conducted on the 15th and 16th of October, prior to David Cameron taking a more aggressive line against the government.

It isn’t a huge shift in support from the last poll, which was conducted just before the Tory conference, but it does seem to confirm that narrowing of the Tory lead and – depending upon Lib Dem support – a Tory lead of 9 points puts us back in hung parliament territory, rather than the “landslide victory” leads we were seeing a few months ago.

On the subject of Lib Dem support the poll also reflects the same sort of fall in Liberal Democrat support that we’ve been seeing across the board. Despite Vince Cable mostly being seen as having come out of the banking crisis with the highest reputation, the level of Lib Dem support in the polls has only been going downwards. Being feted by people who watch politics doesn’t necessarily translate into any support from the wider public.

Also of interest was a question asking people whether “It is right that taxpayers’ money should be used to bail out banks”. 37% agreed and 58% disagreed. By focusing on “bailing out banks” and taxpayers money the question has probably produced a more hostile response than a question asking about the “rescue plan” would have, but all the same it shows the potential for a hostile response to the government’s action.

UPDATE: There are also some figures from an ICM poll for the News of the World here. The poll shows a majority (54%) think Brown is doing well in dealing with the crisis and he leads the Conservatives by 8 points on trust on the economy. However, ICM also asked whether people were now more or less likely to vote Labour at the next election (the exact wording is sadly not made clear) – 13% said more likely but 22% said less likely. As I’ve said many times, I don’t think much of “more or less likely” questions – but this doesn’t look particularly positive. There is sadly no sign of any voting intention question here.

I am expecting a BPIX poll as well tonight. With luck there could also be some others – perhaps ICM have voting intention figures elsewhere and MORI are a possibility (they’re not!). I’m clocking off for the night, so use this thread to discuss any further polls.


19 Responses to “ComRes show Tory lead down to single figures”

  1. I think the tories will be quite relieved about this poll – after supergordie and all the ‘come-back kid’ themes that is the mindset for the coverage of GB (for now). If this is as good as it gets for Labour, Cameron et al can rest easy and wait for for the grim times ahead – how long until news coverage reports on numbers of job losses each day as we saw in the 80s.

  2. some bad news for supper gordon some good news hes back under ten points but still dave has brock ranks and this will not be represented untill a later poll next week prhaps

  3. BPIX:

    Con 46
    Lab 30
    LD 13

    link

  4. BPIX 46/30/13

    vs last BPIX of 26th Sept 43/31/17

  5. So, BPIX seems to show that the Labour revival isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. 46 (+3) 30 (-1) 13 (-4). The poll was conducted Thurs 16th to Sat 18th so reflects Cameron’s attack on Brown and the subsequent news converage which was on Friday.

    Perhaps people will now wake up to the reality of Labour as Cameron hopes. Domic Grieve’s attack on the gov’s immigration policy today shows the new strategy from the Conservatives.

    So far, it seems to be working.

  6. These polls show the Tory figures look pretty satisfactory – despite the party being rather out of the fight over recent weeks, slightly concerning for many of us in the party I think.

    It could be that those pretty nasty unemployment figures were the reality check. I have been somewhat irritated by the headless chicken media coverage of the economy, even though it probably helped us, and wanted to wait and see how things actually went. But a rise that large (to August) even before the negative growth may have actually arrived, may have been an issue away from the glamour of saving banks, and shots of the city and the international dimension.

    It does look like the LDs are somewhat squeezed.

  7. I think it was Diane Abbot who said the Parliamentary Labour Party seemed more cheerful than for many months early last week – and then the next day, the unemployment figures came out, the implication being it was a bit like the morning after the night before.

  8. I’ve always found BPIX to be the most erratic of the polsters so i’d go with the Tory lead at just under 10%, but I wouldn’t disagree that this may well be as good as it gets for Labour.

    If by the start of november the mood is that even if he saves the world Gb can’t close the gap to single figures then I think the knives will be being sharpened again.

    In some ways that’s sad because I think GB is a decent enough guy he just backs down to often. Most of the Blame for the situation we are in now lies not with Brown but Blair.

    When he decided to match the european average for health because it sounded good and ficus groups showed it was popular Brown tried to resist but again when it came to a show down he backed down. that was the start of the spend to be popular phase that did much to stop Brown putting the breaks on the property and shares boom.

    If you want to blame Brown for weakenss then you probably have a point but I think by inclination he probably was uncomfortable with the way Blair drove things.

    Still he can’t really tuen round now and say;

    ” It was Tony that did it I only let him because I am weak.”

    Peter.

  9. No doubt the price paid to try to get the banking system into motion again will hit us next year, and then no doubt we shall see the government getting the blame for this along with all the unemployment.

    No sign of a uncoming Labour victory here.

  10. The next General Election is likely to be one of just two since 1945 to be held in the depths of a recession.

  11. It never seemed sustainable to present Gordon as the super-hero and saviour of the world. Gordon got us into this mess and it is far worse here than in any other G7 country. Other countries bail out their banks by taking c.10% stakes, we have to nationalise them.

  12. If “Gordon saves the world” isn’t even enough to put Labour ahead, one has to ask what is. Soon we’ll be looking at mass unemployment, more clunking fistery, and the ladders in Gordon’s superhero tights. My guess is that the gap between Labour and the Tories will widen again within a few weeks or months. But then the thought of this government hanging on to power for another 5 years makes me queasy so I have to confess bias.

    And I’m an ex-Labour Party member!

  13. I’ve noticed that the polls this year are beginning to look like those of 1968. There was a massive 28% Tory lead in May of that year, which dwindled to 8% in October. I wonder if history will repeat itself, resulting in the lead widening before the year is out?

    These are the Tory leads throughout 1968 according to Gallup;
    Jan – 5.5%
    Feb – 22.5%
    Mar – 19%
    Mar/Apr – 24.5%
    May – 28%
    Jun 23.5%
    Jul – 20%
    Aug – 15%
    Sep – 10%
    Oct – 8%
    Nov – 18.5%
    Dec – 25.5%

    Did Harold Wilson give an impressive Conference speech and was seen to be handling the economic crisis well for a time?

  14. Seems like Labour haven’t gotten the bounce they might have been hoping for. What I really want to see is the YouGov marginals poll due out on Wednesday. Similar marginals polls recently have shown the Tories doing best of all in the very seats that they need to win next time. If that trend is holding despite the banking crisis then things will be starting to look very grim for Labour.

  15. an snp guy saying ‘spend to be popular’what a laugh.
    scotland is in the 97 to 2001 period with rampant spending,but now there is no money,and taxes are going up in scotland if the mad local income tax comes in.
    they are now just the pro euro party.and the euro is going to struggle in the currency markets in the next few years,because there was little unity over the last few weeks.

  16. Labour have reached their high point. The Comres poll was conducted before Dave came out fighting.
    It represents the Tories position at worst – and it no longer applies.

    Nonetheless, it shows 40 of voters are staying with Dave – regardless.

  17. 40% obviously, not 40

    Only another 17 points to go for Labour’s Falklands moment :-)

  18. philip johnston,

    Between 97 – 01 the SNP weren’t in Power Labour and the Libdems were.

    They recieved their share of what Brown spent on the UK public services and spent it in a similiar way. That may not have been wise, but it wasn’t the SNp.

    As to Local Income tax, it will raise less than the council tax that it will replace and as such, along with freezing the Council tax for three years, will actually be a tax cut reducing the tax burden during a recession.

    Balancing the books with a tax freeze and high inflation will be difficult and indeed painful, but you either knuckle down and deal with it or throw uop your hands in horror.

    Oh and heres the plug for anyone that’s interested.

    Alex Salmonds interview on the BBC conference special. As this is quite rightly a non partisan site, it’s up to each of you if you want to watch it.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7678190.stm

    Peter.

  19. The story of this poll is not the headline figures for any party, but the declining support for all of them – others are up to 13%; Cameron would have handled the crisis better than Brown 25% agree 56% disagree, Brown’s decisive handling of the bank crisis means that Labour has a good chance of winning the next election
    37% agree 54% disagree.

    Sally,
    I find it funny that 40% gives you confidence in Cameron’s appeal when only a few weeks ago he was at 52%.