If the timings are the same as after Gordon Brown’s speech we should expect YouGov’s post-Cameron speech poll to turn up later on tonight. I’m at a planning meeting this evening, so feel free to post the figures here if they are published tonight (I’m afraid I don’t now if there are any or not).

For some context, the YouGov poll taken immediately after Gordon Brown’s speech had figures of CON 41%, LAB 31%, LDEM 16%, which represented a boost of 7 points in Labour’s support. Given the overshadowing of their conference and their higher starting point, I’d be very surprised if the Conservatives matched that sort of boost. YouGov’s post Lib Dem poll showed them enjoying what proved to be a very shorted lived bounce of 4 points, finally their poll from before the conference season (and before the collapse of Lehman Brothers), which I suppose we should draw conclusions from once all the dust has settled showed figures of CON 46%, LAB 27%, LDEM 16%.


30 Responses to “Post conference poll tonight?”

  1. we will see what happens tonight, but from what i understand the conservative speach did not go down well with the bbc’s salford panal where most people were non committal on most of his speach so from that i would say a long way to go yet but the die is starting to set and to see a 9pt conservative lead after labours conferance was odd but exspected beacuse what we saw after the LPC was wavering votes thinking he did a good speach lets give him a chance and see so my prediction is

    CON 44 +3
    LAB 27 -4
    LD 19 +1

    ALL FROM YOUGOVS LAST POLL

  2. SORRY LIB DEM UP 1 AT 17%

  3. “I suppose we should draw conclusions from once all the dust has settled showed figures of CON 46%, LAB 27%, LDEM 16%.”

    Well if that turns out to be the case, that’ll ironically mean we’ll be back more or less to where we were before the conference season began.

  4. I think YouGov (and other pollsters) ought to hang fire until Friday or Saturday night – the dust will have settled by then and will surely give a better picture of the situation.

  5. I don’t feel the Tories will have much of a conference bounce given all the events in the financial world plus Darling and Brown have still been on TV this last week – I look for a 13-15 point Tory lead at this point but I still think that when Westminster restarts and politics gets back to normal again in a few weeks time then the lead will be closer to 20 again.

  6. If Anthony’s prediction does come true it will be very good news indeed for David Cameron.

  7. Stuart,
    Any conservative speech will never go down well with a BBC panel because the BBC always seem to find a bunch of left leaning ‘random’ voters! In recent months it seems the Beeb have given up all pretence at impartiallity.

    …”I don’t fink I could eva vote TORY after what that Thatcher did blah, blah…”

    The papers gave it a fairly good reception, including a very positive front page in the Sun, so I reckon a bounce is definately on the cards.

  8. IVAN THE TERRIBLE-

    yes i’ve seen that with the beeb as well its very labour swung at this time but sky seam to give better headlines to the conservatives than the beeb, but in the true nature of TV you can not be natural even if your asked to be.

  9. You’ve misread me Andy (or I’ve slipped into John Prescott level syntax) – those are the figures from the last pre-conference YouGov poll that we should be comparing things too once any obvious Cameron bounce has subsided.

  10. “Any conservative speech will never go down well with a BBC panel because the BBC always seem to find a bunch of left leaning ‘random’ voters! In recent months it seems the Beeb have given up all pretence at impartiallity.”

    If anything the BBC have been incredibly biased against Labour over the last year or so.

  11. The BBC has never been biased against Labour.
    They are sometimes just less nice.

    I wonder if they will be popping the champaigne corks if the next Government is Tory? I suspect not.

    The number of BBC politicos who have connections with Labour is incredible.

  12. BBC a bunch of pinkos & hopelessly biased against the Tories? yawn……..
    Everyone knows that members of ALL parties feel the Beeb is unfair to them! Certainly doesn’t reflect my views.

  13. expect the BBC to be even more biased against the tories now as the Blair resignation is a shot across their bows and they wont want a tory govt in to do the same to them

  14. Speculation is fun – all that is guaranteed is the latest Labour figures of 31% are a small conference bounce which will fade back to the mid 20’s within a week.

    So here’s my prediction for the next POLL – Conservative 43% / Labour 29% / Liberal 17% = 14% lead

  15. Here’s mine

    Con 44%, Lab 27%; Lib Dems – don’t care

  16. here’s mine

    con 44%, lab 27%, lib dems- don’t care

    ALEX- the lib dem vote is vitle to the conservatives if they are to get a majority in the region of labour now let alone before the last election, which i think is now on the cards, they do matter to both main partys as votes count not areas. you could win 14 million votes but still not be in govenment marginals are the key and the lib dem vote of course.

  17. Much of my party is all but paranoid about media bias, and there are certainly things like the Daily record that might as well be printed by Labour.

    As one collegue said;

    “If Labour started burning pensioners in the street the record would say the extra light would help cut crime”.

    That being said I think the BBc is about the fairest braodcaster in the world, certainly better than SKY or CNN and as for Fox it’s just behind the Disney Channel.

    If I have an issue with the BBC it’s not bias but cowardice in that it tends to back away from serious analysis and instead just repeat each parties attacks on each other.

    As to predictions I’d go for;

    Con 42%, Lab 28%, LibDem 17% and I’ll wait till after the SNP conference in mid October before I take a look at Scotland.

    Peter.

  18. Peter – “BBc is about the fairest braodcaster in the world, certainly better than SKY or CNN ”

    are you on the same planet?

  19. The BBC is the least unfair broadcaster, perhaps, but this isn’t the same thing at all as being fair by any standard measure.

    Regarding these post-conference polls, I’d be interested to know whether the changes in weightings reflect a tendency for the pollsters to tell the people who commissioned them what they want to hear.

    It seems an obvious way to support the polling industry during times of economic turmoil even if it correlates with an accurate picture of a volatile state of public opinion – however to suggest there is some exaggeration going on may be one explanation why the politicians who rely more on polls than personal contact are failing to come up with policies at odds with the real needs of the country; polling inaccuracies debase debate, shock non-headline!

  20. So Peter Mandleson is to return to the cabinet. Whether this is good or bad for the country and the fortunes of the Labour party I leave for others to judge.But if he is there at the demise of this government of which he was so much an architect then it seems somehow rather fitting.
    Mandleson’s return however is rather overshadowed by the decision of Ruth Kelly to leave Parliament altogether. I don’t doubt that this is for family reasons but behind that I perceive a disenchantment with politics and the new Labour project in particular. She was in my view the finest of the so called “Blair babes” who came into the Commons and then office in the 1997 landslide. And whilst I am not of her political persuasion there is something sad about her departure. I wish I could express this a bit better than that but there it is.

  21. I don’t think the polls will show much change for the moment, the Tory Conference seemed to be quite good, but there was a bit of a news blackout, and the argument that we have been struck by this crisis rather than been very much involved in it will still have had some mileage.

    But the public will probably go back to worrying about how it’s being handled, so perhaps see figures like 44-31 at the end of the month.
    With any luck, the Lib Dems could be down to about 15% in some polls, with the odd 11 or 12 next year.

  22. JJB, if you depend on luck in politics you’ll lose.

    I can see no reason why the LDs will weaken at the polls in the next year.

    Both Labour and Conservative are suggesting pain is the only way out of the looming recession, while only the LDs are suggesting there is a positive alternative way out (even the Greens round my way are doom-mongering). So the effect of the calls for ‘change’ in Cameron’s speech chimed like an endorsement for the LD position at his own expense.

    I was particularly struck by George Osborne’s collapse on Today under the scrutiny of Evan Davis, which must be a harbinger of things to come.

  23. http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/palin-hillary-open/656281/ for a very funny take on Palin and Hillary Clinton (hey, we need to laugh sometimes…)

  24. Poll released Con 42%, Lab 30% and LD 17%. 12-point lead

  25. JJB & Thomas: email it to each other – that, along with silly spinning of polls as bad for the other parties, is the sort of tiresome partisan argument that *other* political forums are for.

  26. Anthony, where have I spinned polls in a partisan way?
    Most of my posts actually have referred to the government catching up.

    As for my comments about the budgets and the financial situation, I think they are good deal less partisan than a number of posts on here.

  27. Joe – you haven’t, that’s just the other things that really annoys me – you’ve never done that. This had just devolved into a partisan argument about whether the Conservatives or Lib Dems were better (and check your email).

  28. Anthony, I feel I should apologise for drawing that discourse out longer than necessary.

    Perhaps if I’d started commenting here a couple of years ago it might’ve looked more like I was in agreement with JJB, but maybe this exchange reflects expectations of a return to the ‘age of spin’ indicated by the cabinet reshuffle.

    It will certainly be interesting to see how the public responds to any return to ‘message management’.

  29. “are you on the same planet?”

    Same planet jon-but a different country.

    Maybe the BBC is different up there!?

    Down here it is unashamedly & embarrasingly biased. ( listen to Peter Allen on R5 Live with Gove after the Tory Conference). It’s 24Hr News TV channel dishes up the most superficial political analysis on view.
    Only Andrew Neil is worth watching.

    Sky beats them every time.Boulton is incisive, informed & objective-everything the BBC is not.

    Fox is a Republican Party supporter & tells you so.Once you remember that , you can admire the real depth to their political analysis. We have nothing to match it in this country.

  30. Well I got two out of three with 28% for Labour instead of 30%.

    Peter.