Comments on: ComRes September Poll

By: KTL

KTL — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 18:07:58 +0000

Can Brown afford to demote Milliband ?

Just like Blair could not sack or demote Brown – isn’t the same true about Brown and Milliband. If Milliband were demoted he would almost certainly resign and then go looking for 70 signatures on a leadership ballot form which he may not have trouble getting.

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 17:24:03 +0000

Thomas I assume you are referring in your first para. to the Conservatives and the LD’s. In practice their Glenrothes figures are likely to have minimal impact on whether a bad result for Labour is the end for Brown given it is generally accepted it is predominantly a 2 party fight and it would be surprising if one/both of the other 2 parties are not squeezed. I think that Labour could lose Glenrothes badly and Brown would still hang on until at least next Summer.

I agree with what you say about Brown demoting Miliband but doubt if Brown has the guts to do it. I think you are under estimating Cameron and think Brown will suffer in a full blown recession as he has no room to meaningfully use fiscal policy without adverse political consequences from e.g. a Sterling crises, a down – grading of the UK’s credit rating and much more criticism from the IMF etc.

By: thomas

thomas — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 16:50:21 +0000

I’m not sure whether a Glenrothes by-election loss for Labour is the end for Brown. It will at least partly depend on the extent to which Conservatives and Tories see their votes hold up in what is otherwise a two-way fight.

I’m also not convinced that a full-blown recession is bad for Brown. I am not satisfied that Cameron and Osborne would do any better in the current situation, so why should I give them a chance? They have yet to explain what they would do differently, and the few gimmicks they have presented do not fill me with any confidence.

JJB is right that the coming reshuffle will be a good indicator of the feeling inside the cabinet, as overextensive and drastic changes would smack of panic.

I think Brown should shame Miliband’s conspiring by demoting him, and it would show some backbone to stick with Darling for a bit longer.

The interesting thing will be the timing of the announcement and how this plays into what I’m expecting to be a lower bounce in the polls for Cameron coming out of the Conservative conference.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 15:11:31 +0000

Surely they can’t really be going to put Alistair Darling in the Home Office, as it hinted in The Economist.

If David Milliband is sacked, then Jacqui Smith could make a fairly smooth transition to Foreign Secretary.

Not so good, would be Anne Moffat as Chancellor of the Exchequer, but it would make more sense for Yvette Cooper to take that and have Moffat as Chief Secretary.

By: sunbeam

sunbeam — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 13:26:49 +0000

People are far too concerned about what the next couple of polls will be. We have not reached the watershed moment. That is still a few weeks away.

Two key events are still to come.

One is when people stop talking about the ‘credit crunch’ (a phrase not too harmful for Labour) and start to talk about the ‘recession’. The word ‘recession’ has far more impact and will cause more harm to Brown.

The second moment is Glenrothes. If Labour loses, especially badly, then GB may be in real trouble. He’s been clever with the ‘experience’ argument as it hinders his removal.

Even if he stays a by-election defeat will kill his momentum and return us to 20% Tory leads just as we offically slip in to recession.

That will be the water-shed moment.