Just like Blair could not sack or demote Brown – isn’t the same true about Brown and Milliband. If Milliband were demoted he would almost certainly resign and then go looking for 70 signatures on a leadership ballot form which he may not have trouble getting.

I agree with what you say about Brown demoting Miliband but doubt if Brown has the guts to do it. I think you are under estimating Cameron and think Brown will suffer in a full blown recession as he has no room to meaningfully use fiscal policy without adverse political consequences from e.g. a Sterling crises, a down – grading of the UK’s credit rating and much more criticism from the IMF etc.

I’m also not convinced that a full-blown recession is bad for Brown. I am not satisfied that Cameron and Osborne would do any better in the current situation, so why should I give them a chance? They have yet to explain what they would do differently, and the few gimmicks they have presented do not fill me with any confidence.

JJB is right that the coming reshuffle will be a good indicator of the feeling inside the cabinet, as overextensive and drastic changes would smack of panic.

I think Brown should shame Miliband’s conspiring by demoting him, and it would show some backbone to stick with Darling for a bit longer.

The interesting thing will be the timing of the announcement and how this plays into what I’m expecting to be a lower bounce in the polls for Cameron coming out of the Conservative conference.

If David Milliband is sacked, then Jacqui Smith could make a fairly smooth transition to Foreign Secretary.

Not so good, would be Anne Moffat as Chancellor of the Exchequer, but it would make more sense for Yvette Cooper to take that and have Moffat as Chief Secretary.

Two key events are still to come.

One is when people stop talking about the ‘credit crunch’ (a phrase not too harmful for Labour) and start to talk about the ‘recession’. The word ‘recession’ has far more impact and will cause more harm to Brown.

The second moment is Glenrothes. If Labour loses, especially badly, then GB may be in real trouble. He’s been clever with the ‘experience’ argument as it hinders his removal.

Even if he stays a by-election defeat will kill his momentum and return us to 20% Tory leads just as we offically slip in to recession.

That will be the water-shed moment.

I notice that Cameron started his speech talking about the armed forces. I could be wrong but I can’t remember Brown saying much. Does that mean the Conservatives think they’re stronger in this area now?

My guess is that Brown’s incredible statement that the Polls were not a factor in changeing his mind to call an Election, was a greater factor in his fall from grace,than Cameron’s 2007 speech-good as that speech was.

My guess is that current financial & economic events will similarly supercede the effect of Cameron’s speech-good that speech was (IMPO)

But I don’t know which way current financial concerns will sway people.

In USA it seems to be towards the opposition.
In UK it seems to be towards the Government.

But the GE will probably be in 2010-when events, Conference Speeches, and no doubt policies will all have changed.

I found the Tory conference fascinating simply because of the venue. It seemed to have been chosen for the celebration type of conference that should (deservedly) result from a massive turnaround in the polls.

The fact that all the big speeches were re-written (and presumably largely stripped of oratorical flourish) meant that the mutedness of the performances was stark.

At his best, Cameron is a small venue performer. A huge speech in a huge venue could easily have re-established that 20 point lead. I’m not sticking my neck out, but I’d suggest any rebound will be smaller for the fact that the venue was no longer helping him.

It isn’t place for non-partisan discussion because Barnaby likes non-partisan discussion; it’s a place for non-partisan discussion because I make the rules and I say so.

That said, a post exploring the reasons why Labour support dropped in Sept 07 isn’t partisan, it’s exactly the sort of post the site is for.

That said, your reasons don’t stand up. Labour’s support slumped before the Queen’s speech – the timing suggests it was a result of the humiliating non-election and Brown’s handling of it, the media turning against Brown after his honeymoon and – some people would claim – a successful Conservative conference.