I agree that there might be a late surge. Labour might do something to boost their core vote, Tories might gaffe awfully.

I regret the word “meaningless” but I don’t think that the polls are useful unless you see the other side – it’s like looking at only the positive column of an accounting sheet for Labour, we haven’t seen what the Tories will put on the negative (or perhaps positive?) yet.

“Perhaps the Liberal Democrats will take a knock, and after a few months, some polls show them on 11-12%.”

that’s indulging in wishful thinking. Have you become the new ‘Oracle’?

The greatest reason for previous LD weakness has been the lack of public knowledge about their new leader, Nick Clegg. As he settles into the role he won’t get any less recognisable, so unless you are suggesting he will alienate his supporters and lose voters it is only likely that the the LDs will gain at the polls – especially now they have pledged to cut taxes for the less-well.

Additionally this move has stolen a march on both Labour and Conservatives as they can only bolster the LD argument by following suit or make them more relevant by opposing them.

Or is it possible that you are going to reverse a habit of a lifetime and now argue that tax cuts aren’t what the country wants or needs? In which case I suggest it is you who are at odds with public sentiment and your blue self who will see your support fall.

I would agree.

But I also think he was right to emphasise “no complacency”.

He has a difficult trick to pull off-
Projecting as a credible PM in waiting can slip over into taking the electorate for granted.The dreadful spectre of Kinnock stands in the wings.

Refuting Brown’s ” shallow salesman” line can slip into a welter of hastily released policy goodies.

Giving an understandable picture of a Britain under his administration, to people who have never experienced Conservative philosophy in Government-or who rely on Brown’s depiction of it is not easy.
And -for some at least-the spectre of Thatcher stands in the wings.

There is the possibility that the post Conference Labour bounce is not just a filling of the vacuum left by Tory silence.If it were then it should be reversed in a few days time.

But it might be “clinging to nurse” as Banks fall like nine-pins & savings/jobs seem to be at risk in UK.

I think there might be this factor at work-in which case Osborne’s speech will be key.More importantly the Tory economic prescription for our difficulties must be relevant, credible & understandable.

Perhaps the Liberal Democrats will take a knock, and after a few months, some polls show them on 11-12%.

Labour have re-established around 30%+, for some time, at least.

If Tories are not back at least 15 points ahead of Labour by next week I will be surprised.

Remember, last year, Tories went into conference behind in polls. This year Cameron is at least 10 ponts ahead before the camera focuses on him. Judging by the Sky News interview, we will see a solid improvement in Tory ratings in next couple of weeks.