ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is out and shows very similar figures to YouGov’s poll. It was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, just after Brown’s conference speech and one day after YouGov’s poll, and shows a similar boost in Labour’s fortunes. The topline figures, with changes from ICM’s last poll, are CON 41%(-3), LAB 32%(+3), LDEM 18%(-1). The one day’s difference in fieldwork means that this poll would have been after Ruth Kelly’s resignation, which doesn’t appear to have dampened down the Labour poll boost.

The combined picture from ICM and YouGov’s polls is that Labour have had a pretty successful conference in terms of the polls. The question now, however, is where they all settle once the Conservatives have had their bite of the cherry.

18 Responses to “Another boost for Labour from ICM”

  1. A good poll for Labour in the circumstances.
    Tory share holding quite well, as ICM tends to give lower figures.
    They get a chance to reply next week.

    I think at the end of it all we will see Labour’s figures at 30 or so, hopefully from my point of view, Tories will edge back to 44-45.

  2. I am now of the view that the pollsters should take a holiday during the party conference season – surely it will be the state of the parties in two weeks time that matter?
    Doing them half way through, to coin a phrase, is as futile as fitting wheels to a tomato.

  3. Weighted Moving Average 43:28:17 pre-conference it was 45:26:17 so I think it was probably the bank crises rather than the conference. I don’t think the full enormity of the Cooper resignation had sunk in, and the reshuffle will give Brown another chance to display his management skills.

    Let’s see where things are in 2 weeks time. At least it will help ensure that the Conservatives don’t become complacent. But it’s worth remembering that this time last year the WMA was 33:41:16

  4. Cooper? Wishful thinking, surely.

  5. Reply to Nick Kleene

    As regards the state of the economy in May 2010 and its likely impact on the election. I think Darling was being honest and probably accurate when he said we are entering a particularly uncertain period regarding the economy. By 2010 the economy could be basically the same, better or worse! If better Labour are likely to do better.

    Politically I think a signicant amount of support that the Conservatives have enjoyed in recent months is fragile. Recent polls prove this.

    For several months before and after Brown took over as leader Labour were polling around 32% It is still plausible that this is the percentage they will get at the next election. And it is still plausible that the Lib Dems will come close to the 23% they received at the last election. Let’s say the Lib Dems get 21% then this would leave the Conservatives on 38%. This could leave the Conservatives without an overall majority.

    I’m not saying I think this is what will happen. But I think such a result is still plausible. I’m trying not to be wreckless in my speculations like certain bankers.

  6. Reply to Phillip J W

    “Uncertain” means “bad”. Downturns also take a few years to play out, and I can’t see why this one will be accelerated by anything. Brown’s “borrow when things are good” policy means that we already have too much debt when riding into a recession, and the OECD says we’re the worst-prepared economy in G8.

    “Politically I think a signicant amount of support that the Conservatives have enjoyed in recent months is fragile. Recent polls prove this.” – Not really, I think. In 14 of 15 key areas, the Tories beat Labour, even in socialist heartland territory, like the NHS. Furthermore, we’re in the conference season, the end of the “silly season”. Polls taken now are almost meaningless, especially compared to the results after the 3 main parties’ conferences. Better wait until a couple of weeks after the Tory one, once the dust has settled and Parliament is in session.

    “It is still plausible that this is the percentage they will get at the next election.” – why? The economy will still be down, and even a rising economy never saved Major. The hard-left are rising in Labour as well, hardly a recipe for economic recovery.

    “Let’s say the Lib Dems get 21%” – again, why? Their support has been steadily falling since 2001, and their seats are often Con-Lib rather than Lab-Lib battlegrounds, leaving them vulnerable to Tory rise. I can’t see why the LibDems will suddenly expand their vote by 30%.

    In summary, I think it’s plausible, but not likely at all. Brown hasn’t a popular war or cash in the war-chest or a personality to win the day, and his headline-grabbing policies have been damp squibbs, superseded only by the lack of credible challengers in his own party to do the job for him.

  7. Don’t get me wrong this particular Labour government sickens me as much the pictures they are going to put on cigerette packets. And I’m guessing they will be polling on average around 25% in October.

    But I think it silly to dismiss the last two polls as silly and meaningless. It does remind us of Labour’s potential to get a late surge.

  8. Cameron came into the season riding a new high of 52%, so to leave it on anything less than 50% can’t be unspun as anything less than a failed conference.

  9. thomas, that’s rubbish. 52% was clearly an outlier: most of the polls for months have had the Tories on about 45% plus or minus 2-3%. The recent polls from YouGov, ICM and ComRes have them below that level, but over on politicalbetting.com they’re reporting a BPIX poll that gives the Tories 43% and a 12 point lead.

    Having said that, anything below 45% would no doubt be disappointing for them.

  10. Just one thing. I was a delegate at the Labour Party Conference (where it was pleasant to meet Toby Perkins, a contributor to this site). I can assure you that the “hard left” isn’t rising in the Labour Party! As a very left-wing socialist my side wasn’t at all successful, as the prevailing mood is now in favour of falling in strongly behind Gordon Brown.Most of the Constituency Party delegates in particular are now ultra-loyalist, even in seats such as Hackney North where left-wing views used to prevail. It may be true that the tone of some of the speeches, including Brown’s, was less right-wing than for a while, but that’s not the same thing at all. Let’s not have left-wing bogeyman stories here please.

  11. No doubt about it – the conference season helps the underdog – last year it helped the Tories and they stayed ahead – the last 2 weeks have seen the Liberals and Socialists as the underdogs gaining ground – i really really want them to enjoy it while it lasts for about another week !Then back to business as usual !

  12. This site is playing up again ! My comments that everyone waits in anticipation for have disappeared into cyberspace again !

  13. To make it short – not wanting to waste more time and see the commenst vanish – this only a conference blip and worth taking much notice of – the Liberal drop is all you need to see a conference trend .

  14. Have just seen Cameron interview on Sky News. Stark contrast to the similar interview with Brown a couple of weeks ago.

    If Tories are not back at least 15 points ahead of Labour by next week I will be surprised.

    Remember, last year, Tories went into conference behind in polls. This year Cameron is at least 10 ponts ahead before the camera focuses on him. Judging by the Sky News interview, we will see a solid improvement in Tory ratings in next couple of weeks.

  15. It will be interesting to see – they should add on some support, when people have heard from them on the economy, provided, of course, that, and the conference as a whole is successful.

    Perhaps the Liberal Democrats will take a knock, and after a few months, some polls show them on 11-12%.

    Labour have re-established around 30%+, for some time, at least.

  16. “Have just seen Cameron interview on Sky News. Stark contrast to the similar interview with Brown a couple of weeks ago.”

    I would agree.

    But I also think he was right to emphasise “no complacency”.

    He has a difficult trick to pull off-
    Projecting as a credible PM in waiting can slip over into taking the electorate for granted.The dreadful spectre of Kinnock stands in the wings.

    Refuting Brown’s ” shallow salesman” line can slip into a welter of hastily released policy goodies.

    Giving an understandable picture of a Britain under his administration, to people who have never experienced Conservative philosophy in Government-or who rely on Brown’s depiction of it is not easy.
    And -for some at least-the spectre of Thatcher stands in the wings.

    There is the possibility that the post Conference Labour bounce is not just a filling of the vacuum left by Tory silence.If it were then it should be reversed in a few days time.

    But it might be “clinging to nurse” as Banks fall like nine-pins & savings/jobs seem to be at risk in UK.

    I think there might be this factor at work-in which case Osborne’s speech will be key.More importantly the Tory economic prescription for our difficulties must be relevant, credible & understandable.

  17. JJB,

    “Perhaps the Liberal Democrats will take a knock, and after a few months, some polls show them on 11-12%.”

    that’s indulging in wishful thinking. Have you become the new ‘Oracle’?

    The greatest reason for previous LD weakness has been the lack of public knowledge about their new leader, Nick Clegg. As he settles into the role he won’t get any less recognisable, so unless you are suggesting he will alienate his supporters and lose voters it is only likely that the the LDs will gain at the polls – especially now they have pledged to cut taxes for the less-well.

    Additionally this move has stolen a march on both Labour and Conservatives as they can only bolster the LD argument by following suit or make them more relevant by opposing them.

    Or is it possible that you are going to reverse a habit of a lifetime and now argue that tax cuts aren’t what the country wants or needs? In which case I suggest it is you who are at odds with public sentiment and your blue self who will see your support fall.

  18. “But I think it silly to dismiss the last two polls as silly and meaningless. It does remind us of Labour’s potential to get a late surge.”

    I agree that there might be a late surge. Labour might do something to boost their core vote, Tories might gaffe awfully.

    I regret the word “meaningless” but I don’t think that the polls are useful unless you see the other side – it’s like looking at only the positive column of an accounting sheet for Labour, we haven’t seen what the Tories will put on the negative (or perhaps positive?) yet.