New Parliamentary Boundaries
Opinion polls on voting intention are a snapshot of how the political parties current support stacks up. They aren’t an attempt to predict the next election, they aren’t even really an attempt to show how people would vote in that mythical “general election tomorrow” - there isn’t a general election tomorrow, and if there was there would have just been four weeks of electioneering, the parties would all have permanent leaders, wouldn’t be conducting policy reviews and so on. They are just a snapshot.
That doesn’t stop us all translating poll ratings into general election results - “just for a bit of fun” as Peter Snow used to say. There is a real purpose to it as well - the Conservative party cannot afford to rest on its laurels with a lead of a couple of pencentage points, because when translated into seats the Labour party would still be the largest party in the Commons.
Before the next election though the Parliamentary boundaries will change in England and Wales, with consequential changes to the amount of votes the parties need to secure a majority. Whenever the boundaries change Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings of the University of Plymouth calculate notional votes for the new boundaries, so the media can talk about swings and suchlike. Their figures won’t be available for some months yet though so, as my regular readers will know, last year I produced some early estimates of the effect this would have on the number of seats held by each party. Since then I’ve finished poducing notional figures and the pdf below has list of the parties’ target seats under the new boundaries, some of the most significant changes and a simple swing calculator.
The bottom line is that under the new boundaries Labour would have won 10 seats fewer at the last election, the Conservatives 14 seats more and the Lib Dems one seat more. On the new boundaries it will be more difficult for Labour to retain their majority at the next election (a swing of just 1.5% to the Tories will rob them of a majority, compared to 2.2% on the present boundaries) making a hung Parliament more likely. It will be slightly easier for the Conservatives to gain a majority, but not much easier (they will need a 7.1% swing, compared to 7.4% on the old boundaries).
Let me know if you spot any mistakes, and I’ll repeat two of the caveats in the guide - firstly, the calculation is based just on local and general election results, the overall picture should be good, but in individual seats it’s no substitute for someone with really sound local knowledge. Secondly, notional boundaries make the assumption that people’s voting behaviour doesn’t change - in really if you move someone from a rock solid safe Labour seat to a Con/LD marginal, there’s every chance they might change their voting behaviour.
Download guide to new Parliamentary Boundaries
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Anthony, I look forward to seeing re-calculations for Greater London based on May 2006 (nearer to 2005 than 2002 was). I believe this is one reason why the ‘official’ Rallings and Thrasher figures have not appeared yet.
One point which became apparent to me while writing the 8th edition of The Almanac of British Politics:
Everyone so far has had Sheffield Hillsborough as the abolished seat in South Yorkshire, but I would suggest it is Barnsley West and Penistone.
The majority of Hillsborough forms the majority of Penistone and Stocksbridge. Barnsley W &.. forms the majority of no new seat.
This does not make any difference to the political effect calculations, of course.
Re: Not from me you wont Robert! My London figures are based on the constituency votes in the London Assembly elections in 2004, not the 2002 local elections.
Using the assembly elections mean you don’t have to invent notional scores for wards that one party doesn’t contest, takes away the problem of how to deal with independents and means that individual councillors personal votes cease to be an issue. I’m sticking with them
Re: Sheffield. As you know, it can be pretty arbitary which seat is described as the one that is vanishing (unless, I suppose, you are an MP for such a seat fighting for selection in a successor seat, in which case I expect being perceived as the incumbent rather than the guy losing their seat is an advantage at selecton meetings). Looking at through seeing which seats make up 50% of the new seats though sounds like as good a way as any though - so you’ve convinced me!
Hi,
My Computer has no problems reading most PDF files. However, when I tried to read the PDF file on your predictions, it comes out as illegible dots. Looks like a very interesting report; pity I can’t read it - try and make it more user friendly next time.
I would be very interested in your predictions for my home county of Hampshire (Meon Valley, Romsey & North Southampton, Winchester as revised with Hiltingbury included, Eastleigh, the Portsmouths) and Northamptonshire (which could be a hidden disaster for the Conservatives).
I do not have a website, but my e-mail address is:
jh_sandland@hotmail.com
I am an MSc in Statistics; I have 3 ways of assessing public opinion:
1st: Real Votes (by-election results, council election results: recently Dunfermline)
2nd: Some Big Brother Votes (such as the Bez/MacCririk straight eviction vote - a vote between the Respect Agenda and the Madchester Agenda - and the Derek-Laud/Eugene eviction vote)
3rd: Opinion Polls - a poor 3rd; “Eight Out of Ten Cats” sums them up.
I’ve no idea why you are having difficulties wiuth the pdf - it is a standard pdf, without any unusual features, and I have heard of no other problems.
In Hampshire, I have Meon Valley as a Lib Dem/Conservative marginal, with a notional Conservative majority of around 2000.
Romsey & Southampton N notional LDem majority of around 450, Winchester remains a “safe” LDem seat with a notional majority of around 8,000 (though whether it is safe in reality or not may be a different question given Mark Oaten’s recent difficulties).
The changes make little difference in Eastleigh or Portsmouth South. Portsmouth North will be better for the Tories - notionally I have it as Tory seat with a majority in double figure, so realistically it is far to close to say who would have won it in 2005 on the new boundaries.
In Northamptonshire I have the new Northamptonshire South seat as safe Conservative, and the currently Conservative seat of Northampton South becoming a notionally Labour seat. Kettering becomes much worse for the Conservatives, but not bad enough to stop it being a notionally Tory seat - the notional majority is only around 100 compared to about 3,300 at the last election.
Hey Robert and Anthony…suppose I can use this opportunity to ask when both the 8th addition of the excellent Almanac is set to be published? Many thanks…
Anthony - with regard to the new Blackpool seats - North & Cleveleys, and South - are your figures suggesting a Tory revival here?
Regards - Liam
Anthony,
What do you make of York Outer though. Bearing in mind that the lib dems finish 3 in York and Selby and 2nd in the other two seats it is been made up of, how come it is a Lib Dem seat when the Tories hold two and are second in the other two of the 4 seats it draws the new boundaries from?
Anthony,
Very interesting work - thanks. I was struck by the notional result you predict for the new Hammersmith seat. This is a different result from that predicted by the 2005 GE (which suggests Con maj of 400) and the 2006 Council elections (Con maj +/-1,000). Do you stick by your “secure Labour” categorisation?!
Thanks,
Anthony
Anthony - remember it isn’t a prediction for what will happen next time, but what would have happened in 2005. Judging by the local election results it could well end up returning a Conservative MP, but had the 2005 election been fought on those boundaries it would have been Labour (the contrast with the 2005 election is because it has lost Conservative Fulham to the new Fulham & Chelsea seat).
Re: Sefton Central. It could be very interesting.
Basically, the reason it is no longer called Crosby is that half of the Crosby area has been shifted south into Bootle. Those two wards are essentially Lab/LibDem with very little Tory presence. I live in one of them and it will mean I can vote for who I want being in a safe seat!
Sefton Central now consists of the safe Tory ward in Crosby (Blundellsands) which is far less solid than it once was, but the Tories still win. Manor ward is a Lab/Con marginal which takes in the Thornton area (Labour) and Hightown (Tory). The LibDems have been gaining some ground locally
The two Formby wards are Tory. Harington safely so, Ravenmeols can be won by Labour in a good year, but their organisation has gone to pot there.
The other three new wards are the Maghull and Aintree wards of Sudell, Park and Molyneux.
Sudell and Park and impregnably LibDem locally. They were previously in the very safe Knowsley North and Sefton East seat which was Labour. It seems that the Maghull vote is more Labour nationally than locally. The Tories do badly in Maghull locally.
Labour used to hold all three Molyneux ward seats, basically Aintree and Ince Blundell, but are now a way behind the LibDems locally.
So, if you look just at local election results, Labour don’t have a prayer on paper - but, then, I thought the Tories would have taken Crosby in 2005 - I voted Labour despite everything. The current Labour Crosby MP is very politically ‘flexible’ and seems popular amongst the Tory voters. There are rumours that she would love to get her hands on the safe Bootle seat where the MP is likely to retire, but if that was tried I would seriously foresee a Blaenau Gwent situation.
I live in Garforth at the moment on the south-west of the Elmet constituency. Can you let me know what constituency Garforth falls into and the make-up of this seat (and the Elmet one if now not Elmet) and a bit of info on chnages in this area. Any help appreciated.
Garforth and Swillington ward is placed in the Elmet and Rothwell constituency. The changes in the constituency compared to the current Elmet constituency overall make it slightly better for Labour.
I would say Elmet & Rothwell will be substantially better for Labour than the old Elmet seat. Rothwell, although now returning Lib Dem councillors, has been historically a solidly Labour ward in South Leeds and I would expect its addition to add a sizeable chunk to Mr Burgeon’s majority there
What views on the revised Newcastle seats? Lib Dems ran Labour close in Newcastle Central last time but the new boundaries would appear to make Newcastle North and Newcastle East more marginal than Central, with Tyne Bridge getting axed.
Hi Anthony - Could you tell me how you get to the 12,000 maj for the Tories in the new seat of Kenilworth and Southam please.
The returns to the ballot boxes in 2005 from Kenilworth were not as impressive as one would imagine, a large proportion of the Lib Dem vote came from there.
The village of Ryton must be very strong Labour but has an impressive Ind Cllr. Some parts of Southam are Labour strongholds. I would guess that Rugby council results do not accurately represent the strength of the national Tory vote there, especially as one sees the Lib Dem strongholds at local elections evaporate when activists stand over the boxes at GE’s.
This resource is a credit to your hard work. Thank You!
David - I’m going over all the results now for an updated version later in the year taking into account feedback I’ve received. If you can drop me an email with details of where you think local election results might give a misleading impression of the distribution of the national vote (especially things like your comments on Ryton, and any information from box counts at elections) then please do drop me an email so I can factor them in
If it looks wrong to someone with local knowledge - then it probably is, and I’d rather put it right!
Looking at the changes in North Wales, I suggest that the Labour voters of Bangor contain a large number of PC supporters who were tactically voting Labour to keep the Conservatives out of Conwy, and that in the new Arfon seat they will switch to their party of choice - Plaid - and the new Arfon seat will remain as a Plaid stronghold.
The new Aberconwy seat, as well as losing Bangor, gains PC votes from Nant Conwy, and I think that this will make this seat a Conservative/Plaid marginal with Labour dropping to 3rd place. I believe that this seat will go to Plaid in the Assembly and Conservative at Westminster.
Anthony, with the news that Sarah Teather is going for the Brent Central seat, do you have figures for that. Everyone is comparing it with Hampstead and Kilburn, but without substantive info.
Erlend Watson
Erlend -
Notional figures are
CON 4901
LAB 18383
LDEM 11776
Very many thanks for a good work. Nice and useful. Like it!
Dear Anthony,
Wonderful research, looks like a real labour of love.
Would it be possible to have your figures for the new Bath constituency. I assume with the 1 1/2 Bathavon wards transfering to the North East Somerset Seat it becomes substantially safer for the Lib Dems?
Bathonian (and Toon Army and other people after particular seats). My updated figures, with full details for every seat, are almost done - should be available at some point over the next month or so.
Hi Anthony, can you give me any predictions on the impact boundaries will have on the new Camborne/Redruth, and St Austell/Newquay seats? Will the boundary changes hamper the Liberals efforts to keep the county all Liberal?
Similarly, do you have any thoughts on the new Plymouth seats? I note Sutton/Devonport is 95th of seats to win for the Tories. Is this do-able?
Best wishes,
WL
Westcountry Lad - new predictions on their way soon (though as I’ve said before, the large number of independents means that the notional figures for Cornwall are probably some of the least accurate).
Updated figures almost done?!?
Sooner than I thought it would be, and it’ very impressive that you’ll have done EVERY SEAT!!! How have you managed to stay sane whilst doing all of it?
Well anyway, I look forward to devouring the figures.
Any word on the effect that the changes may have on existing seats with small majorities, e.g. Guildford?
Will you be reviewing your Conservative majority prediction for the new Meon Valley constituency by reason of an Independent candidate entering the field? This new seat has no sitting MP, is not owned by any political party and is up for grabs. Public opinion is moving away from the 3 traditional parties. The Meon Valley voters will have an exciting and local alternative - Graeme Quar. Check out the Meon Valley Independent web site and then review your projections.
[...] achieved a swing of 5.3 per cent. Even with the boundary changes currently being implemented, which will help the Tories slightly, the Conservatives will need to achieve somewhere between these two figures to form a government [...]