We need a critical mass of Conservatives in the SP and, with PR, there they are under the leadership of Ms Goldie, the party leader more respected outwith her own party than any since Donald Dewar. Were they not hamstrung by ties to Westminster, and if they had rebranded to break the assocation with what Christian Schmidt has called “The Party of Thatcher,” they could be in government in Scotland even now.

That does not apply to Westminster where their voice would not be heard. A Scottish Labour MP, as part of a group critical to the majority, might have more influence were it not that so many of them are willing to put party loyalty before commonsense or even self interest.

An SNP MP can get attention all right. 20+ will be enough to have an impact on public opinion in England. How many more do they need (joining with PC) to get as much attention from broadcasters as do the LibDems?

Not at all so far as Scotland is concerned. It can get much worse for Labour with self harm yet to happen.

Yes, I agree, I was speaking totally broadbrush. I think Scotland provides a fascinating alternative.

‘The bottom line is that the next General Election looks likely to be a “bloodbath” like 1983 or 1997, and the die is probably already set.’

Not at all so far as Scotland is concerned. It can get much worse for Labour with self harm yet to happen.

I’m surprised by only one thing in the Scottish results of the poll: the number of possible Labour losses to SNP. The rest is remarkably consistent with my consideration of the past two elections result and asking what it would take for each constituency to change hands and whether that was possible. I hadn’t finished it, but it didn’t look as if the SNP would get near their target 20.

This poll suggests they will exceed that number.

If that is where we are now, and if present conditions continue, then even that total could be on the low side and a bandwagon effect could even result in some further LibDem losses.

Even before this poll, recent local information in Argyll and Bute, (where I vote) had led me to expect an SNP win whereas I had previously thought a three way LibDem – Con – SNP marginal too difficult to predict.

The inclusion of constituency was a good choice despite what is said above.

It matters not whether he wins or loses.

If he wins he is “standing up for Scotland,” has delivered when others would have failed, and perhaps Scotland could benefit from more of that.

If he loses, then the Westminster elite have caused the problem but it wouldn’t have happened in an independent Scotland.

BoS is an Edinburgh issue as well as a Scotland issue. Alistair Darling’s majority is at risk and HBOS redundancies could be all that is required to make the difference.

If you were advising Labour strategists whether it would be better to take the damage in Halifax or Edinburgh, what would you tell them?

I would tell them that Scottish Labour MP’s (not least the Chancellor) should go back to their constituencies and prepare for independence.

Or on the basis of this poll, is Yorkshire lost to Labour too?