A new ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday has topline voting intention figures of CON 39%(-5), LAB 27%(+2), LDEM 21%(+4). The poll was conducted between the 17th and 18th September, so straight after Nick Clegg’s speech, and suggests a healthy conference boost for the Liberal Democrats, this time at the expense of the Conservatives. A twelve point Tory lead is the lowest recorded since May.

The poll also had a series of questions about the Labour leadership which collectively are pretty good news for Gordon Brown. 30% of people think David Miliband would be a better Prime Minister than him – by 47% disagree. Notably, the same question in June found 41% thinking Miliband would be better. A majority of people, 57%, think that the present economic difficulties make this the wrong time for Labour to be thinking of changing leader and, finally, 71% think that there should be a general election if Labour change leader again.

Put all together, this reduction in the Tory lead and question showing a lack of appetite for a change of leader under the present circumstances should bolster Gordon Brown’s position… unless, that is, the other polls due out tonight show a different picture. In terms of voting intention I’m expecting a least one other poll from ICM tonight.


9 Responses to “Some good news for Brown from ComRes”

  1. its confrence season the polls will settle down soon im waiting for the conservative conferance to start

  2. Weighted Moving Average 44:25:18 this seems as far out as the Ipsos/Mori was the other way, and ComRes have a Std of 3. However both here and in the US the financial turmoil of the last week does seem to have given left-of-centre parties/candidates a boost.

    The Lab/LibDem margin is down to 7.5 again which is interesting, but we’ll have to see what it looks like post-conference season.

  3. The polls are all over the place at the moment, plus the fact when the Tory conference comes round then it should shake up the figures a bit more. I mean, just look at the 52% poll the other night!

  4. I think the 52% for the tories was an accurate reflection of dissatisfaction with Labour and Brown. It wasn’t however a reflection of anything positive to say for Cameron or the Conservatives.

    So with a resoundingly positive and upbeat conference for the LDs (even the tetchiness and verbal scrapping should be considered good news for them) they have shown themselves to be relevant to the challenge and hungry for it. They have carved out a section of media coverage and they are showing they can win people over to their view (even Heffer in the Telegraph is eying them up with increasing seriousness).

    Even from an unscientific survey of eavesdropping conversations where politics is the subject Clegg, Cable and the LDs are being given a surprisingly high level of conditional support and benefit of the doubt. With QT, Newsnight and This Week all providing unprecedentedly positive coverage of the LDs it is no surprise that they have felt a rebound in their poll percentage, and, if they can keep up the gentle coaxing I suspect they will start to gain some small momentum.

    If this trend combines with any faltering on behalf of Cameron and a continuing weak Labour party I can see Clegg rising to above 25% – which is a symbolic marker for any third party.

    All that remains a big ‘if’, but remembering that Kennedy gained 22.1% in 2005 and with tactical voting playing its part too, it is hard to believe the LDs will not make a net gain of seats at the next GE.

  5. I reckon this POLL must have been taken outside the Liberal party conference – lol.

  6. This poll confirms that the Lib Dems have received a badly needed boost. If they maintain this momentum then they will not lose the predicted quarter number of seats.

    Admittedly, this is another if, but if the Lib Dems begin to poll the same amount as Labour then this could give them a boost to surpass Labour.

    A lot can happen in 20 months.

  7. A lot can happen in 20 minutes……

    Peter.

  8. This is a sign that people are beginning to think seriously about who the next goverment should be. I think the Lib Dem vote will increase to about 23% with Labour reaching 28%. Also the Welsh and Scottish Nationalists will probably increase there vote percentage in opinion polls in the next few months.