What I assume is the first post-Lib Dem conference poll (the dates aren’t available, but YouGov normally have a fast turnaround) shows a healthy boost for the party. The topline figures in the YouGov poll, with changes from their last poll before the conference season began are CON 44%(-2), LAB 24%(-3), LDEM 20%(+4).

It’s more impressive for the Lib Dems since YouGov normally give them the lowest score of any pollster: this is the highest score that YouGov have given them since all the way back in 2005. It’s intriguing to think that if this poll had been carried out by ICM or Populus would could potentially have seen Labour and the Lib Dems neck-and-neck. Of course, it is just a conference boost, so it it remains to be sen how things pan out once Labour and the Conservatives have had their own moment in the spotlight.


21 Responses to “YouGov show conference boost for the Lib Dems”

  1. Weighted Moving Average 46:25:17 so the CLead seems to be a solid 21 points now. FWIW this is the 1st time the WMA Labour support has gone below 25 (it’s 24.8) and although the 3rd sig fig is clearly spurious it certainly seems credible that there will be further erosion in Labour support over the conference season.

  2. Yep, let’s wait for the end of the Carnival very side show Political Party conference season and a bit longer for the end of the ‘capitalism is doomed’ (or labour is doomed if you are Mike ‘Oracle’? -joke- does Oracle mean a single lens to magnify one’s prejudice’?) season. As our pensions vary, so does our hip pocket nerve, so does othe party for which we vote…. Labour Lib Tory are all the same, with minor alterations…

    WE need a bit of space to reflect longer , consistent polling…

  3. Well, well that 52% poll for Conservatives and 12% for the Lib Dems didn’t last very long!

    I don’t think it wise to read too much into any particular poll until the conference season is over. Perhaps the most significant poll will be that taken just after Gordon Brown’s speech.

  4. If the LD’s are ever going to surpass Labour then it’s going to be in the next few weeks. Clegg’s pension gaffe aside the consensus is that they had a good conference and this appears to be reflected in this poll. The polls this time next week could well be critical for Brown.

  5. Poor JACK – how much time do you need to reflect – sounds like a Liberal to me / or even Gordon Brown !!

    Flash in the pan boost for the Liberals – they’ve had more media time this week than in the whole of the rest of 2008 / by the end of the other 2 conferences they will be back down in the mid teens.

  6. This, far more than August, is the “silly season” for the polls. We had a double-digit Labour lead next week last year, following the Labour conference. 1-2 weeks after the Tory conference, when their bounce settles will be the time to look at where we are now.

  7. Mike, as an independent I think the blind partisan arrogance shown by Conservative supporters like yourself deserves to take a beating.

    And I fully suspect you will take a beating between now and the next election for several reasons 1)in the current period of economic turmoil I have yet to hear the Conservative shadow treasury spokespeople make a statement – why is this? 2)I have yet to see any public discussion of Conservative policy commitments, let alone any analysis of them – why is this? 3)Nobody has yet seen how Cameron copes when he runs into difficulties – is this because he doesn’t face up to challenges, or because he has yet to face one?

    Birmingham will be a huge occasion for Cameron&Co, as they have huge expectations to live up to. But I doubt he will be able to satisfy anyone on any of the above questions, the dear leader will only have the floor to himself to dig his own grave.

    So for all the ‘Oracles’ out there, enjoy that 52% – it’s the only one you’ll get because it’s downhill all the way from now – we might as well start thinking about who will be the leadership challengers in 2011/12.

    Anyone for Boris?

  8. Thomas:

    er – last conference Cameron was almost universally seen as “doomed” and he coped brilliantly, whilst Brown folded under much less pressure and bottled the election. We know he copes really well under pressure.

    Why do people bang on about policies? The electorate doesn’t vote on the basis of policies, they vote on whether they like and trust the people they are voting for.

  9. Thomas – Whether you like DC or not you have to say that his speech last year at the Tory conference was hugely impressive.

    As for policies – The Tories don’t have to be that specific on policies at the moment as the election is still a long way away.

    Polls have shown that DC is popular with the electorate and is seen as more “in touch” than the Goverment, that ,at least in part, is why the Tories are such a long way in front.
    Although,is fair to say that the Tories would still be in front no matter who is in charge such is the despisement of the current Government.

    IMHO The Tory lead will only widen after everyone has had their turn at the conference season, not shorten.

  10. thomas

    I have to say that you sound no less partisan than the Oracle.
    One of the golden rules of politics is that’oppositions don’t win elections -it’s just that governments lose them’-unless your is name is Neil Kinnock.
    There is absolutely no need for the Tories to mention anything except generalities and to sit tight until it is time to produce their manifesto by which time the smoked may have cleared to enable their spokesman to see the way forward.
    What you say about Cameron was doubtless said by Tory supporters before the 1997 election about Blair.
    Above all I think you are going to have to accept the coming change of government with good grace-its the British way.

  11. I think the publicity surrounding JK Rowling’s donation to the Labour Party shows that many people’s alliegancies are to put it mildly idiosyncratic.

  12. I think this poll if true and becomes consistant shows the public genrally want tax cuts and a much tighter control on public spending
    I quite like some of the ideas the Lib/Dems have put forward on tax (I didnt think I would ever say that)but I have a sneeky feeling they would claw back those tax cuts with a hike in local income tax, but credit where credits due they have tried to put some kind of plan and vision forward.
    I agree with many comments that Labour is finnished no matter what, and the longer GB is leader the worst it will get.
    The Tories now need to get off the fence I think thier plan has worked up till now, and last years party conference was the catalist to their dramatic rise.
    But now they must start putting a clear dividing line between themselves and Labour if they want to maintain their lead and attract voters like myself at least the Lib/Dems have given it a go!

  13. Although I am more than likely to vote Conservative in 2010 (First time I am eligible to vote, and it certainly won’t be to Labour), I am disappointed that there have been very few solid policies given out by Cameron and Co. Hopefully at the conference that might change.

  14. Surely with the unraveling economic situation of the last week: where we are told winners became losers and vice-versa, it is best to wait until even after the USA Presidential elections.

    These polls are nice to know but probably inconsequential compared to the political developments of next 12 months.

  15. I think that Rowling’s public support for Labour and condemnation of the Conservatives at this point will be a timely morale boost for Labour.

    As a said before the Lib Dems are proposing more attractive policies than the Conservatives.

    Conservative policies such as tax breaks for married people, hypothetical tax breaks regarding fuel duty with the suggestion that they will later reverse this tax break when the market for oil reverses are going to attract virtually no one.

    I can’t see the Conservatives failing to win the next election but it may not be by the large marging that present polls suggest.

    I’m still expecting things to get somewhat worse (2 or 3% lower on average) for Labour in the polls over the next 6 months or so. But as in a marathon it is what happens in the last part of the race that is most significant.

  16. The problem for the Tories is that whenever they propose any policies they are stolen and the warped into some sort of Labour creation.

    If the Cons didnt have to worry about having their policies stolen and destroyed I’m sure they would publish many more.

  17. I seem to be the only person saying this but with JK Rowling donating 1Million to the Labour party, doesn’t it seem that:

    1) people will be talking about Tory tax policy for married couples and a lot of people are in favour of it and

    2) being a close personal friend of Gordon and Sarah Brown, doesn’t it look like Gordon is using Ms Rowling’s money to help him retain the premiership?

  18. The LibDems were unlucky that their Conference overlapped perhaps the worst financial crisis that anybody, bar the oldest pensioners, can remember. All the same, they need to be doing better if they are to make any progress, indeed if they are not to lose seats next time as the excellent PoliticsHome survey of individual seats suggests.

    My impression is that the LibDems are a party ideologically of the past. Whilst ordinary voters do not see this, the result is that the LibDems are unable, and I think will never be able, to vollect togehter an, attractive, different, set of policies that will bring about the sea change in voting behaviour they need.

    As for JK Rowling, I wonder how helpful her £1 million donation will be. Firstly, this high profile donation highlights that Labour is no longer able to get large sums by aggregating the donations of ordinary supporters. One might remark that in the early part of the twentieth century working class voters made sacrifices to donate large proportions of their income to Labour, in a way that few today would even imagine. Part of Labour’s unpopularity arises becuase it is no longer seen as the party of the less well off. Secondly, I think that many ordinary voters, in so far as they think about the matter, will be of the opinion that Ms. Rowling would have been better advised to give the money to a charity helping children. Thirdly, although I don’t think it will have even limited psephological implications I would have thought that giving £1 million to a party £17 million in debt is liable to be throwing good money after bad. I hope Ms. Rowling is giving her money in such a way that it is ringfenced for future politcal ends rather than for paying off the past.

  19. Nick Keene,
    Gordon Brown has previously shown that even self-imposed ‘golden rules’ are easily broken because they are there more for effect than for any practical purpose. So, yes, while the addage “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them” may be true in some circumstances, it is also true that some oppositions can lose elections.

    KTL,
    I have to disagree that Camerons speech to the 2007 conference was ‘hugely impressive’ to anybody except the long-suffering zealots. Even by comparison to some of the political speeches heard in the meantime (ie on the US Presidential campaign) Cameron must be dismissed as unstatesmanlike and lightweight.

    As for whether the Conservatives can get away without presenting a credible policy platform (rather than simple ‘positioning’), this question will grow in importance the closer to the next election we get.

    Cameron has been putting off presenting any policies since his leadership election. One wonders how long he can go on without saying anything – especially now we have heard some fighting talk from the third party.

    If Cameron does win in 2010 without providing a detailed and properly costed manifesto then he is setting any government of his up for an immediate fall because he will have fallen into the same trap as Labour under Brown now: a change of leadership does not legitimise a change of policy.

    The ‘no risks’ attitude of Cameron puts him firmly in the ‘no change’ camp, which is certainly not what this country wants, even according to his own party supporters.

  20. The LDs can promise what they like.
    The Tories would like to offer more substantial tax cuts, but they are more likely to actually have to clear up the mess.
    Public finances can deteriorate very fast.
    In 1990-91 we still had a small surplus, (despite it being a year somewhat further into the downturn than that is likely for 2008/9.)
    But in 1993 we had a PSBR of over £50 billion.

    Personally, I am strongly in favour of tax cuts, but understand they don’t become self financing from day 1, and the trouble any serious government or alternative government has, is if they promise a big increase in the PSBR on day 1, they will send the markets into headless chicken mode.

    But a greater statement of intention to get to them as soon as possible would be needed.