The LibDem voter in those LibDem highland strongholds asks two questions:

1) Has the incumbent LibDem MP been above average in understanding of constituency issues and active in promoting constituency interests, (post offices, fishing, farming etc) and deserves to be supported?

2) In the light of the answer to that, will voting LibDem still be the “best buy” for someone who wants to keep out either Lab, or Con, or Lab+Con, or would the SNP be a better option?

In these constituencies, provided the SNP are in a poor fourth position, a LibDem is a secure incumbent and in others could be a successful challenger to only Labour.

In the constituency in which I vote, Argyll and Bute the answer for some voters will be “No” though whether there will be sufficient LibDem losses for the third placed SNP to win is at this time still unclear. What is clear is that the Conservatives will certainly still be in second place and Labour have nothing much to lose.

It’s not simply the existence of a fourth party that makes national polling swings almost useless in predicting the outcome of Scottish marginals, but the fact that sometimes one, sometimes the other and sometimes both of the Westminster government parties is not in contention and each of these conditions needs to be considered in a different way.

Conservatives have one highly likely gain and I have never doubted that there are three, perhaps four other “POSSIBLE” gains. I am not in denial about that, its just that I don’t believe in counting ALL the chickens before they are hatched. If the Conservatives end up with a total of three seats in Scotland, they should be well pleased with the result.

If present trends continue, the SNP might achieve their target of 20, but as things stand at present, that seems over ambitious though not quite as absurd as the Oracle’s 12 Cons.

As for the “Thatcher Factor”, the opportunity to link cheap archive broadcasting to a state funeral will give it a final boost before it can be over. Could the SNP be lucky enough for that to happen a fortnight before the referendum?

Well yes and no. The recession has only just started to bite and its full effect will probably not hit the general population until 2009. If the government is unpopular now heaven knows what depths it could sink to next year and on into 2010.
There are plenty of people out there-nearly 40% of the electorate-who usually don’t bother to vote-and in the above scenario-might be so angry with Labour as to cast a vote to get them out rather than aiming to register a protest vote for the Lib Dems or a minor party. You obviously hope the SNP can retain its present level of support in the polls. Well yes being a reasonable person I agree that it might but it is also quite conceivable that you will get a late surge from the don’t knows to the Tory party as happened in both 1970 and 1992 and most notably right here in Scotland. The latter was my biggest ever betting coup and I am looking to collect again so lock up your cheque book Peter!! Hope its not HSBOS you are with…..

“The worse the economic picture gets the more voters will tend to coalesce around the party most likely to evict the present government.”

with respect I think the time for that pasted last year when the LibDems were being squeezed and Labour or tory could win. for the last six months i think the public mood has been that the tories will win, so I can see movement betwen the other parties by those who won’t vote Tory rather than an increase in the Tory vote.

the decline in the Libdem vote will be interesting if true, if the poll showes where it has come from. It could be that the “we’ll cut taxes bit has actually put off Labour defectors.

Peter.

Perhaps I could point out that a regulated market is not a free market. I think one of the reasons the parties get in such a tangle over economics, with implications both for their efficiency and their support, is that they pretend to support an economic philosophy when in fact their policies and actions don’t follow that philosophy. Which is hardly a good way of getting voters’ support. Once again, the ewxception are the Greens, but perhaps that is becasue they have never been tested in power.

On a separate matter, Peter Cairns reported Scottish figures is interesting. However, with respect to the Liberal Democrats polling data in Scotland particularly must be treated with caution because Liberal Democrat support is concentrated in a small number of seats where they hae MPs. However, it is difficult on such figures to believe the Liberal Democrats are going forwards rather than backwards. They don’t seem to be succeeding in putting forward a distinctive platform, and in Scotland, where the vote has historically been largely pro- or anti-Labour, there are other havens for voters wishing to register a protest vote.