ComRes compare Labour leaders
A new ComRes poll for the Independent has topline voting intention figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 25%(nc), LDEM 17%(+1). Full tables are here.
ComRes also asked a series of questions on how people would vote with alternate leaders of the Labour party. With Jack Straw or David Miliband voting intention would be practically identical with a Tory lead of 19 (though it isn’t strictly comparable since the standard voting intention question isn’t prompted with Gordon Brown’s name – such is his unpopularity I expect adding his name to the standard voting intention question to make it comparable to these would see Labour do much worse). Alan Johnson would do worse, producing a Tory lead of 21, while Ed Balls or Harriet Harman would be worse of all – producing a Tory lead of 22. The only leader who would cut the lead is Tony Blair, who is hardly likely to come back!
As I said yesterday, these questions probably have little predictive value. We don’t they don’t predict the short term bounce a leader might actually receive and – with the possible exception of Jack Straw – people don’t know these politicians well enough to really make a good guess of what they might be like as premier and how they might react to it. The figures are, however, important for the effect they have on the political narrative and likely the views of many Labour MPs.
ComRes also asked a question on whther people liked the Labour party, Gordon Brown, both or neither. The 36% of people who liked the Labour party, included only 16% of people said they liked Gordon Brown. Only 8% of people liked Brown, but not Labour.
Filed under: Communicate, Labour, Voting Intention
a slight fall in CON surport but mainly due to the fact the lib dems have got back in the news its been a long while sincethey have been on TV but by the looks of the figures they are doing well in the north of england but falling back in the south as dave cameron take grip over all others, the scotish figures look odd 25% for the cons thats a bit high,but it could be a leveling out in scotland and a truer picture of what is realy going on over the border.
I find it interesting that Ed Balls has done worse in this and I believe in other polls as well.
Perhaps this reflects a dissatisfaction with the government’s approach to education and in particular the desire to force everyone until the age of 18 to remain in education.
The government’s determination to proceed with unpopular policies such as compulsory education until the age of 18 and compulsory ID cards is putting a lot of people off from supporting Labour. These policies also come with a significant price tag. And at a time of economic difficulty this will put off those who would otherwise be ambivalent about such policies.
It is the poor state of the economy which is making the prospect of Labour winning yet another election most improbable. But they are making things worse!
The fact that Blair’s Labour is significantly more popular than today’s Labour I think underlines this.
Recently we had Brown and Darling contradicting each other with Brown saying he was cautiously optimistic about the economy and Darling stating how uncertain and dire the economic prospect was.
The amount of ammunition that Labour are presenting their opponents is becoming quite incredible. And I think that come the conference season they will seek to make good use of it.
Ed Balls is bound to do worse – particularly unfortunate name.
If alternatives to Brown fare worse, then there is little incentive to change leader. But, unless Brown produces some real changes in the way he performs – which I think most people would agree is unlikely – then Labour are looking at not just defeat, but a disaster in 2010.
How many Labour MPs will have the courage to look beyond the figures in hypothetical polls such as these and face the fact that they need both a change of leader and a change of policy if they are to have any hope of preventing a Tory landslide ?
On the other hand, why would any cabinet minister want to take on the leadership now ? The pressure to go to the country quickly will be immense, with defeat by far the likeliest outcome. What price being PM for a few months vs taking the long view and taking on the task of rebuilding the party from opposition ?
Perhaps the only senior Labour MPs who may be persuaded to take up the gauntlet are those with tiny majorities who effectively have nothing to lose and everything to gain – Jacqui Smith or Ruth Kelly perhaps ?
If age were a consideration, then Jack Straw may calculate that the party may offer him the crown, not only for the period up to the election, but for a reasonable period thereafter – say 2 years to give the party time to regroup.
Most others would probably be better advised to focus on retaining their seats so that they are at least still in Parliament to stand for the leadership when Brown retires in disgrace (though even then he may need to be pushed).
On current form, the list of casualties among Minsiters is growing at all levels, and could hit double figures in the cabinet itself. That includes several names often bandied around as future leaders.
Paul H-J
For clarification – that should be:
“list of potential casualties among Ministers”
If I recall correctly, Chris Patten was the only member of the cabinet to lose his seat in 1992. Even in 1997, when the Tories lost half the seats they were defending, while there were many losses in the lower ranks, there were only six cabinet losses – Rifkind, Forsyth and Lang in Scotland, plus Portillo, Newton and Waldegrave. (Yes, even under Major, with only 10 MPs to choose from, Scotland was over-represented in the cabinet)
Although Portillo is remembered as the highest profile casualty, technically Rifkind, as Foreign Secretary, was the most senior.
Ironically, Rifkind’s old seat may produce the highest ranking casualty of the next election – unless Brown has the courage to sack his chancellor first.
I think the electorate for once atre quite astute with this latest POLL (even though the topline voting intentions are completely off as the next by-election will prove).
How do you choose the best of a bad bunch ? It’s a difficult question in difficult times – a rock and a hard place comes to mind.
Just let Mr.Brown roll along – it makes good headlines !
Scottish figure are Tory 25%, Labour 37%, LibDem 6%, SNP 21% Others 11%.
These are out of line with most recent polls but as comres prompts for the three main UK parties and then “Others” I’d expect the SNP figure to be lower.
However it could also reflect the fact that the focus of the news over the last week or so has been the UK conference season and the SNP’s isn’t until October so we haven’t really been in the headlines.
Having said that we did launch or legislative programme, so maybe this might be a sign of a shift or at least an end to the growth in the SNP vote. The sample is only fifty though and with the Tories 7% above what everybody else shows and the LibDems on half, I don’t thing we can draw many conclusions from this.
Peter.
WMA remains 45:26:17 CLead 19. It is extraordinary that, for all this turmoil in the Labour party and bad economic news, we are still exactly where we have been since the end of June. I suspect we’re still seeing “holiday polls” and that there will be real movement by end Oct.
…why would any cabinet minister want to take on the leadership now ? The pressure to go to the country quickly will be immense, with defeat by far the likeliest outcome. What price being PM for a few months….
Paul H-J, you may call me cynical, but a £90,000 p.a. pension for life! Why do you think many people are egging-on a Straw or Johnson interim Premiership…? [PoliticalBetting.com]
Peter Cairns,
Do you really think that the SNP figure should be lower…?
Peter , it is not the methodology but the minute sample sizes that give meaningless results to the Scottish and other subsamples . The previous Comres Independent poll had Con at just 5% and SNP at 40% . Other Comres polls have had LibDems at 24% . Sample sizes of around 50 cannot produce useful data .
I think people have made the point in the past that it is of little value asking people to choose between people most of whom many voters do not recognise by name.
In addition, Philip J W is quite right. It is the economy that matters, and Labour – all of them -are now perceived as having mismanaged it. Labour disregard for human freedom and dignity comes into it as well.
Fluffy,
Surely you do not mean to be uncharitable and suggest our politicians will be driven by purely pecuniary calculations ?
I was trying to credit any putential contender with some political idealism and integrity.
Then again, if the choice is PM for a few weeks or never ever …..
Heard a Co-op assistant today say he would not vote for Brown as Brown wanted everyone to have no pension.