Holiday

As you may have guessed, i’m currently on holiday, in the wilds of norfolk where even broadband toggles fear to tread (or at least fear to work). Please use this thread to discuss any exciting polls in my absence – like that ICM one in this mornings Guardian.


24 Responses to “Holiday”

  1. ICM headline figures from the Guardian.

    Torys 44% (+1) Labour 29% (+1), LibDem 19 (NC) Others 9% (-1).

    Miliband fairs no better than Brown, similiar in terms of making people more likely to vote labour. Brown is seen as more trustworthy ( but still only 16%) but with much less appeal ( 85 to 38%) but Miliband is seen as more style than substance (41% to 6%).

    Peter.

  2. Does anybody know what the SNP figure hiding behind the “9% Others” is?

  3. There was also a Sunday Times/YouGov poll

    C 45, L 25, LD 18

  4. Thomas – the last page of the pdf file of the ICM results gives the following breakdown for Scotland

    Subsample size 72
    Con 9 Lab 19 LibDem 2 Others 41

    The “Others” will be overwhelmingly SNP voters.

    These figures translate into
    Con 12.5%
    Lab 26.4%
    LibDem 2.8%
    Others 56.9%

    Scottish subsamples for several UK polls over the past few months have put the SNP over 40%, this poll would seem to put SNP support at over 50%! The margin of error is huge however.

  5. Thats C 45 (-1), Lab 25 (-1), LD 18 (+1).
    Anthony, how are we supposed to manage without you? No, seriously, have a nice holiday.

  6. I think the devil (for Brown) is in the detail – (Miliband more likeable and empathetic and crucially more liked by potential floating voters). I wonder if Anthony would agree that the headline figures in these polls can give little implication to what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a change of leader (a quick sea-change might be all Miliband needs to win a GE).

    The polls for Brown taking over were terrible and ultimately proved right – but if Brown had called that ‘Autumn election’ he could have won (with a smaller majority) and Cameron might have been ditched in the Tory turmoil that would have followed.

  7. I don’t think that Brown would have won in the autumn; the explanation mooted on BBC News at the time was that the polls in the crucial “swing” constituencies showed a serious Tory lead (+6) in those areas.
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2609862.ece
    Lord Ashcroft’s money was being invested in these areas at the time. Labour has functioned in similar ways in the past when they had rich backers, but right now they do not.

    The consensus view seemed to be that Labour would be without a majority. On this, Brown would have found it hard to control any coalition the Tories could sit back and effectively take the right to call an election, as they could lay the ground for an insurrection in the coalition and call a motion of no confidence at their leisure. Brown chose to sit it out, which I would have chosen in his position.

    I don’t think that the sea-change is coming; it has already arrived. Labour has lost that most valued of political commodities: the benefit of the doubt. Labour is consistently at 25% (YouGov, the most accurate pollster) and Miliband, a Labour man from 1989, is hardly a sea-change from the unholy union between the Keynesian economics of Brown (borrow in bad times) and the Greenspan philosophy of Clinton (borrow in good times, too) that has ruled since 1997.

  8. Marcia @ Mike Simpson’s place appears to have a clue on the August IPSOS/Mori poll. Labour 24%, Tories 48%. Thirty year low for Labour.

    Will publish details once Mike gets them. As they say at pb.com Ave it!

  9. Firstly, apologies to Mike Smithson for getting his name wrong! It was a long-day yesterday…! ;)

    Headline figures for IPSOS/Mori are:

    CON 48% (+1): LAB 24% (-3): LD 17% (+2)

    which generate a 260 seat majority for “The Golden Child” (based upon a Uniform National Swing).

    All polls fall into the margin of error of recent polls, so we can confidently say the Tories are comfortable in the mid-forties, Labour are struggling with there core support in the mid-twenties, and the LibDems are paddling in the high ‘teens. Hopefully Stuart Dickson will find the Scottish sub-sample, so I forward that information for Peter Cairns et. al.

    For further analysis from Mike visit the politicalbetting.com website. :)

  10. Hurray!

  11. Was that partisan?

    Sorry.

  12. Weighted Moving Average 46:26:17 – FWIW this gives an “all time high” C-Lead of 20.2 but basically the polls are a bit stuck. Not for much longer though I suspect – the appalling attack on Milliband’s policy by N. Brown and the widely-rumoured falling out of Carter and G. Brown, coupled with Gordon Brown’s almost uncanny ability to get things wrong will see another movement by Christmas. My prediction is Lab below 25 and a C-lead above 25. But nothing is certain in politics.

  13. MORI has made the amazing transformation in the past four months of being the most pro-Labour polling organisation in its findings to the most pro-Conservative one.
    However, I think it does provide more evidence that Conservative-inclined electors are more determined to vote than other electors. ComRes has also shown us such evidence.

  14. The snag with Mori only counting those Absolutely Certain To Vote is that implies a turnout in the next GE of just over 50% . Taking those 8-9 and 10/10 certain to vote giving a more likely turnout of 64%ish would have given Con 45 Lab 26 LibDem 17 Others 12 a lead of 19 .

  15. Are the LibDems recovering slightly from their worst position, or were the polls wrong and LibDem support is steady at about 17%18%? A significant change should be easy to link to an obvious reason.

    I can see that Labour might be on a downward trajectory, but the changes in LibDem support may be due to small samples and all the focus being on the two big parties.

  16. The ICM poll with LibDems at 16% was clearly an outlier . The detailed results showed a freak sample in the North/Scotland region of just 10% compared to the more usual 18-20% . You will get these abnormal polls from time to time with all pollsters .

  17. Does anyone know when the next poll is due? Will it take into factor today’s revision of Q2 [non-]growth.

    Start of the NBER-cycle, and SkyNew’s economic-bod calling it the start of a technical recession. With Brown/Darling planning a Keynesian bride next month things must be bad!

    [Also UK-debt now exceeds UK-income! That economic management for you!] :D

  18. Thinking about Scotland and Boris Johnson (no he hasn’t mad another faux pas in that direction, at least not to my knowledge, yet) has left me wondering about differential support for Conservatives across the regions.

    Traditional logic says a party must win London to oust a government, but can Cameron win it if TeamBoris continues to fall apart? Are they racking up support in their heartlands at the expense of expanding their reach?

  19. Thomas:

    Far be it from me to risk making faux pas about London, when I only know about Scotland, but there is one thing about Boris that unaligned voters like.

    Boris is WYSIWYG and his own man. Whether he does well or badly it may not rub off on the wider party as much as the chattering classes think.

  20. Yes, I agree about Boris. like ken Livingstone both are ‘independent’ in that ‘normal’ people react to the man, not their party label. As shown by the use of first names being recognisable..

  21. ComRes poll:

    Conservatives: 46% (nc)
    Labour: 26% (+1)
    LibDems: 16% (-2)

    I am trying to find the poll information for the one published in the Observer. John Craig (SkyNews) suggested it showed the Tories on 48%. Whatever the result, the narrative has not changed.

    Doubt if Brown can pull the polls back now. I’m looking to enter the betting market, with a target of a sixty-seat majority at the next election. Still not sure if it’s a buy or lay though!

  22. Sorry,

    Correction


    ComRes poll:

    Conservatives: 46% (nc)
    Labour: 25% (+1)
    LibDems: 16% (-2)

    I’ve only just woken up! :D

  23. Fluffy, is there a particular reason why you wish to draw attention to this particular poll by hijacking this thread whilst there is a perfectly adequate entry fully covering all three new polls?
    Far be it from me to suggest that you have an ulterior motive, are you sure you’re recieving full and up-to-date information?

  24. re Sally August 21, 7.39am

    Oh no, not at all Sally.

    BTW why exactly “hurray!”? we are moving from a PM who has policies but no vison (and no means to articulate a vision anyway), to a man who ……..well Johann Hari says it much better than me;

    http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-cameron-is-wily-but-hes-beatable-907801.html