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	<title>Comments on: Two Sunday Polls</title>
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	<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273</link>
	<description>Independent Survey and Polling News</description>
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		<title>By: john t t</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-460418</link>
		<dc:creator>john t t</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 07:50:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-460418</guid>
		<description>And from to-day&#039;s Ft - something along the lines of &quot;Oil Price continues to fall despite war in Georgia&quot;.

So the BBC editor has a good story that fits the current narrative and runs it without research which would have shown that the price flucuates by a dollar or two within its (at present) downward spiral. 

Whereas the Sky runs its interpretation (I actually found a Guardian article that put together all the reasons for the fall, and they included the weather and hedge fund changes of behaviour as well)

I&#039;m not sure whether you&#039;ve finally seen my point - that the media exerts its influence by reporting news in a partial way. The facts should in my view take precedence over the &quot;interpretation&quot; (or &quot;spin&quot;)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And from to-day&#8217;s Ft &#8211; something along the lines of &#8220;Oil Price continues to fall despite war in Georgia&#8221;.</p>
<p>So the BBC editor has a good story that fits the current narrative and runs it without research which would have shown that the price flucuates by a dollar or two within its (at present) downward spiral. </p>
<p>Whereas the Sky runs its interpretation (I actually found a Guardian article that put together all the reasons for the fall, and they included the weather and hedge fund changes of behaviour as well)</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure whether you&#8217;ve finally seen my point &#8211; that the media exerts its influence by reporting news in a partial way. The facts should in my view take precedence over the &#8220;interpretation&#8221; (or &#8220;spin&#8221;)</p>
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		<title>By: colin</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-460197</link>
		<dc:creator>colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 15:50:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-460197</guid>
		<description>From BBC Business News today under the banner:- 

&quot;Crude rises on Georgia fighting&quot; :-

&quot;US light, sweet crude rose 18 cents to $115.38 a barrel, while London Brent gained 38 cents to $113.71. Prices had earlier risen by more than a dollar. 

Georgia is not an oil producer but the country is a key transit point for crude and gas exports. 

Oil prices have fallen in recent weeks after hitting a record $147.27 in July.&quot; 


From Sky News today under the banner :-

&quot;Supermarkets Slash Petrol Prices&quot;

 &quot;The price of crude oil has slipped by almost $35 over the last six weeks, amid mounting concern that slower economic growth is reducing global demand, and currently stands at just over $113 a barrel.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From BBC Business News today under the banner:- </p>
<p>&#8220;Crude rises on Georgia fighting&#8221; :-</p>
<p>&#8220;US light, sweet crude rose 18 cents to $115.38 a barrel, while London Brent gained 38 cents to $113.71. Prices had earlier risen by more than a dollar. </p>
<p>Georgia is not an oil producer but the country is a key transit point for crude and gas exports. </p>
<p>Oil prices have fallen in recent weeks after hitting a record $147.27 in July.&#8221; </p>
<p>From Sky News today under the banner :-</p>
<p>&#8220;Supermarkets Slash Petrol Prices&#8221;</p>
<p> &#8220;The price of crude oil has slipped by almost $35 over the last six weeks, amid mounting concern that slower economic growth is reducing global demand, and currently stands at just over $113 a barrel.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: john t t</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-460081</link>
		<dc:creator>john t t</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 09:55:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-460081</guid>
		<description>And to-days bbc business headlines include the fact that oil has &quot;soared&quot; by $1 a barrel since Friday , neatly omitting that it &quot;slipped&quot; by $4 on Friday!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And to-days bbc business headlines include the fact that oil has &#8220;soared&#8221; by $1 a barrel since Friday , neatly omitting that it &#8220;slipped&#8221; by $4 on Friday!</p>
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		<title>By: john tt</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-459705</link>
		<dc:creator>john tt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2008 20:01:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-459705</guid>
		<description>That wasn&#039;t my analysis of any issue - just a simple point that the media distorts facts. Obvious really, and non-poartisan, but clearly not obvious enough to the blinkered and small-minded.

Nor am I anxious in any sort of problematic sense - a certain amount of cynicism reduces irrational anxiety, and encourages an independence of mind to 
 which you appear to be oblivious.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That wasn&#8217;t my analysis of any issue &#8211; just a simple point that the media distorts facts. Obvious really, and non-poartisan, but clearly not obvious enough to the blinkered and small-minded.</p>
<p>Nor am I anxious in any sort of problematic sense &#8211; a certain amount of cynicism reduces irrational anxiety, and encourages an independence of mind to<br />
 which you appear to be oblivious.</p>
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		<title>By: colin</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-459507</link>
		<dc:creator>colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2008 12:41:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-459507</guid>
		<description>john-
if that is your analysis of the Stamp Duty fiasco, then I fear that your media myopia will provide you with more and more anxiety, as this  administration continues it&#039;s incompetent efforts to decide &amp; communicate policy to the public.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>john-<br />
if that is your analysis of the Stamp Duty fiasco, then I fear that your media myopia will provide you with more and more anxiety, as this  administration continues it&#8217;s incompetent efforts to decide &amp; communicate policy to the public.</p>
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		<title>By: john tt</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-459502</link>
		<dc:creator>john tt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2008 12:12:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-459502</guid>
		<description>&quot;I just think the British Public are smarter than you fear.&quot;


More risible nonsense. 

Since you refuse to accept that a graph showing a fall from 147 to 115 is significant  , let&#039;s choose another example.

A Govt employee or minister hints to the media at an imminent tax policy change. The media report it as an unattributable rumour. People change their plans because they believe the rumour (or don&#039;t, because they don&#039;t believe it) 

How on earth is that not corrupting?

The media colludes, does not operate in the real world, and feeds its own agenda.

&quot;worst&quot; and &quot;best&quot; are measurable from facts. &quot;Opinions&quot; rely on a massive amount of influences, many of which are corrupted by the media.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;I just think the British Public are smarter than you fear.&#8221;</p>
<p>More risible nonsense. </p>
<p>Since you refuse to accept that a graph showing a fall from 147 to 115 is significant  , let&#8217;s choose another example.</p>
<p>A Govt employee or minister hints to the media at an imminent tax policy change. The media report it as an unattributable rumour. People change their plans because they believe the rumour (or don&#8217;t, because they don&#8217;t believe it) </p>
<p>How on earth is that not corrupting?</p>
<p>The media colludes, does not operate in the real world, and feeds its own agenda.</p>
<p>&#8220;worst&#8221; and &#8220;best&#8221; are measurable from facts. &#8220;Opinions&#8221; rely on a massive amount of influences, many of which are corrupted by the media.</p>
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		<title>By: colin</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-459262</link>
		<dc:creator>colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2008 19:07:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-459262</guid>
		<description>&quot;Your whole argument is that contextual explanation renders facts meaningful&quot;

It is indeed.
Regular buyers of fuel at the pump are aware of the context. They know what a dramatic increase has ocurred in prices over the last four years .The AA say for supermarket diesel 80p Aug 04- 1.27p today-an increase of 59%.It would come as no surprise therefore to them if they were told that oil prices took off about that time too-though I grant you they might be surprised to learn that the oil price increase over that period was 188% ( 40$ to 115$ )

RE your quote from my post-you missed a bit-this bit :-

&quot;all that is needed for clarity is the timescale (which you fail to provide).Then people can make a judgement about the trend over time.&quot;

The timescale for the 140$-115$ fall which you seem so excercised about is one month.You must explain that if the figure is to have any meaning.And for perspective you must run your FT graph for the other timescales it offers- 3months,six months &amp; a year.

If you don&#039;t do this you are being selective-the crime which you accuse UK &quot;editors&quot; of.

But I dont think that is &quot;corrupting&quot; john-either by you or the editors.And so far as it&#039;s effect on opinion polls-the thing which is upsetting you most I suspect-I just think the British Public are smarter than you fear.

I&#039;ve had enough too now!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Your whole argument is that contextual explanation renders facts meaningful&#8221;</p>
<p>It is indeed.<br />
Regular buyers of fuel at the pump are aware of the context. They know what a dramatic increase has ocurred in prices over the last four years .The AA say for supermarket diesel 80p Aug 04- 1.27p today-an increase of 59%.It would come as no surprise therefore to them if they were told that oil prices took off about that time too-though I grant you they might be surprised to learn that the oil price increase over that period was 188% ( 40$ to 115$ )</p>
<p>RE your quote from my post-you missed a bit-this bit :-</p>
<p>&#8220;all that is needed for clarity is the timescale (which you fail to provide).Then people can make a judgement about the trend over time.&#8221;</p>
<p>The timescale for the 140$-115$ fall which you seem so excercised about is one month.You must explain that if the figure is to have any meaning.And for perspective you must run your FT graph for the other timescales it offers- 3months,six months &amp; a year.</p>
<p>If you don&#8217;t do this you are being selective-the crime which you accuse UK &#8220;editors&#8221; of.</p>
<p>But I dont think that is &#8220;corrupting&#8221; john-either by you or the editors.And so far as it&#8217;s effect on opinion polls-the thing which is upsetting you most I suspect-I just think the British Public are smarter than you fear.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve had enough too now!</p>
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		<title>By: john tt</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-459226</link>
		<dc:creator>john tt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2008 17:28:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-459226</guid>
		<description>They don’t need you or anyone else to explain the “facts” to them.

Eh? Your whole argument is that contextual explanation renders facts meaningful You make no sense, I&#039;m afraid.

&quot;the statement “oil price is increasing” is as true as “oil price is falling”&quot;

Colin I&#039;ve read (and written !) some rubbish in my time, but that one beats everything! So unemployment is down and inflation is falling,eh?

THe oil price is treading at $115. It might go up again (in which case we&#039;ll see headlines) or it might fall (in which case whether it makes the news will depend on the editors.)

Of course it&#039;s corrupting.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They don’t need you or anyone else to explain the “facts” to them.</p>
<p>Eh? Your whole argument is that contextual explanation renders facts meaningful You make no sense, I&#8217;m afraid.</p>
<p>&#8220;the statement “oil price is increasing” is as true as “oil price is falling”&#8221;</p>
<p>Colin I&#8217;ve read (and written !) some rubbish in my time, but that one beats everything! So unemployment is down and inflation is falling,eh?</p>
<p>THe oil price is treading at $115. It might go up again (in which case we&#8217;ll see headlines) or it might fall (in which case whether it makes the news will depend on the editors.)</p>
<p>Of course it&#8217;s corrupting.</p>
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		<title>By: john tt</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-459114</link>
		<dc:creator>john tt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2008 13:13:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-459114</guid>
		<description>Colin - Your struggle to make an argument stick depresses me. Why don&#039;t you just have a look at the trend graph of the oil price? You&#039;ll find it here :

http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us@cl.1

It can&#039;t in any context be true that white is black. The petrol prices at the pumps that ypou base your whole attitude on should follow - unless of course the petrol producers manage to convince us that white is black. Good luck with your efforts to help them.

The oil price has been plummetting and this fact you continue to reject. That&#039;s daft, and I&#039;ve had enough!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Colin &#8211; Your struggle to make an argument stick depresses me. Why don&#8217;t you just have a look at the trend graph of the oil price? You&#8217;ll find it here :</p>
<p><a href="http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us@cl.1" rel="nofollow">http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us@cl.1</a></p>
<p>It can&#8217;t in any context be true that white is black. The petrol prices at the pumps that ypou base your whole attitude on should follow &#8211; unless of course the petrol producers manage to convince us that white is black. Good luck with your efforts to help them.</p>
<p>The oil price has been plummetting and this fact you continue to reject. That&#8217;s daft, and I&#8217;ve had enough!</p>
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		<title>By: colin</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1273/comment-page-2#comment-459090</link>
		<dc:creator>colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Aug 2008 12:00:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1273#comment-459090</guid>
		<description>john

The statement that &quot;oil price is going through the floor&quot; is quite ridiculous and totally misleading.

Our press does not &quot;corrupt&quot; democracy in my opinion-despite the warts.In any case ,the vast majority of fuel buyers/ newspaper readers can remember what they paid five years ago, and ten years ago .They don&#039;t need you or anyone else to explain the &quot;facts&quot; to them.

As I have tried to argue, &quot;facts&quot; need context &amp; perspective in order  to become informative statistics. The facts I provided on oil price trend offer both-your fact offers neither.

Today the statement &quot;oil price is increasing&quot; is as true as &quot;oil price is falling&quot;-all that is needed for clarity is the timescale (which you fail to provide).Then people can make a judgement about the trend over time.

I don&#039;t know the answer to your last question-but as I understand it the adjustment would provide stability of fuel price at or around the last Treasury oil price assumption. It would do so presumably until the next FY/ Treasury oil price forecast, when the figures would be re-calibrated-and so on.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>john</p>
<p>The statement that &#8220;oil price is going through the floor&#8221; is quite ridiculous and totally misleading.</p>
<p>Our press does not &#8220;corrupt&#8221; democracy in my opinion-despite the warts.In any case ,the vast majority of fuel buyers/ newspaper readers can remember what they paid five years ago, and ten years ago .They don&#8217;t need you or anyone else to explain the &#8220;facts&#8221; to them.</p>
<p>As I have tried to argue, &#8220;facts&#8221; need context &amp; perspective in order  to become informative statistics. The facts I provided on oil price trend offer both-your fact offers neither.</p>
<p>Today the statement &#8220;oil price is increasing&#8221; is as true as &#8220;oil price is falling&#8221;-all that is needed for clarity is the timescale (which you fail to provide).Then people can make a judgement about the trend over time.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know the answer to your last question-but as I understand it the adjustment would provide stability of fuel price at or around the last Treasury oil price assumption. It would do so presumably until the next FY/ Treasury oil price forecast, when the figures would be re-calibrated-and so on.</p>
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