The latest MORI poll, published in Saturday’s Sun, had the Lib Dems down to 15%. This is their lowest rating in a MORI poll since 2002, and that was prior to MORI’s change in methodology to filter my likelihood of voting. Remember, this poll was conducted before relevations about Mark Oaten’s private life and his subsequent resignation so there may yet be worse news to come.

Before any Lib Dem supporters reading this panic though, it’s worth remembering that MORI’s topline figures do tend to exhibit more volatility than the other pollsters (probably because they do not weight by past vote, which serves to dampen down sample error in other pollsters’ figures). Last month MORI showed an incredible 9 point lead for the Conservatives – this month they have more believable figures with the Conservatives and Labour both on 39%. The low Lib Dem score could simply be the Lib Dem equivalent of last month’s anomolously low score for Labour – there should be both ICM and YouGov polls in the coming week which will give us a better idea of if the Lib Dem party has suffered any damage from Mark Oaten’s resignation.


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