ComRes’s monthly poll for the Independent has topline voting intentions – with changes from their last poll – of CON 46%(+1), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 18%(+2). The bigger picture of a Tory lead around 20 points is still unchanged, though for the record this is the largest Tory lead ComRes have ever recorded.

The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so before the Glasgow East by-election result and the atrocious media coverage Labour have received since then. I’m still expecting the monthly YouGov poll, clearly the Telegraph won’t be publishing that till next week.

20 Responses to “22 point Tory lead from ComRes”

  1. Note the Greens are back to their usual 2% rather than the 5% in the previous poll .
    The Comres weighting for past vote still puzzles me . The previous poll had 19% voting Conservative at the last GE and 21% Labour not far out from the expected figures m in this poll the figures are Con 21% Labour 20% clearly a more Conservative sample than the previous poll and yet the current voting intention figures are adjusting the Conservatives down a little less than in the last poll and Labour much more heavily down . This results in Labour’s headline figure being unchanged despite the number of people saying they are voting Labour has increased from 175 to 190 in a sample which is a little less Labour inclined .

  2. I don’t want to sound like The Oracle but disasters will continue to occur due to continuing managerial incompetence. I suspect that the afermath of Glasgow East will be another 3-6 point increase in the WMA CLead. I don’t have my workseet with me but the WMA CLead must be very nearly 20 points by now.

  3. NBeale

    i see no way back for labour now we are 1.5 years from an election at the latest so some time to recover but, if the govenment continue to cock up and the con lead grows gordon may face a challange from the millibands or better still ed balls well not many labour mps ready yet as gordon just stamps on them all the time and people will not vote whoever is in charge,

  4. Living in Wakefield and feeling the opinion on the ground I’m fairly certain that Ed Balls will lose his seat at the next general election; I think he’s even more unpopular here than nationally! The Conservatives made significant gains at the last local elections and are investing a lot of effort and money in local campaigns; you wouldn’t have thought it a few years ago, but there’s a look of a winner about them in their swagger at the moment.

    Pleased to see the Lib Dem figure on the rise again; I don’t think it reflects any significant change from polling percentages last month, just a bit of fluctuation within the poll’s natural variance. Any thoughts on if Labour can drop into third place?

  5. lib dem member-

    no idea but i would not rule it out at the minuet if labour sink another 3pts to 20 or 21% then in the north and some parts of the west of wales will go gold at the next election for the lib dem in my eyes the best govenments have alway been CON 1st LD 2nd under this you always get more done, next years county election see alot of changes due to the seting up of unitry countys in wiltshire, cornwall, shropshire, northumberland and the spliting up of cheshire their are masive boundry changes going on and it will be hard to say who will win in this area, any idea of what is going on in bedfordshire last i heard it was a bit of a mess, but conservative will gain warwickshire from noc, nottinghamshire from labour mostly, derbyshire from the mostly labour county to the conservatives northamptonshire will say conservative, beacuse of the areas of strong LD votes in the north i would say thay would gain some seats putting councils into noc or gaining.

  6. Prof Anthony King wrote in the Daily Telegraph that he thinks Gordon Brown has almost zero chance of re-election. Do we agree?

  7. Exactly what i have been saying for ages – even though the Liberals are lagging behind at the moment – come the next general election , once Labour has imploded as a political force – the Liberals will become the new Labour for many old Labour voters with nowhere else to turn – this country finally get back to 2 party politics & for Scotland 3 party politics instead of 4.

    There has only been 3 periods in the last 100+ years where Britain has suffered under incompetent government – that was the mid to late 60’s / the mid to late 70’s / the late 90’s to now – work it out .

    Even my predictions for Scotland are looking more and more likely to many on here.

  8. I defer to local knowledge if people think Ed Balls it at risk of losing in Morley and Outwood.
    But I note the Tories don’t appear to have targeted it very hard in the local elections, even this year because it split almost 4 ways with some Independents, although Tories did have a small lead.

    I would have thought it could be winnable if the Tories flood the area with clipboards on Saturday mornings and take up local issues aswell, but a 25-26% Labour majority would mean something approaching 1997 territory in reverse, which is not my forecast, but a majority of around 30 if we keep up the work.

  9. ‘There has only been 3 periods in the last 100+ years where Britain has suffered under incompetent government – that was the mid to late 60’s / the mid to late 70’s / the late 90’s to now – work it out .’

    Chamberlain? Churchill in the 50? Douglas Home? 1930s? Ramsay MacDonald? There are many periods of incompetent British government– it does get wearying when examples are all only chosen to reflect one’s political prejudices. Analyse first Mike and try and be open minded, then make a a judgemnt. Don’t just use examples to support a prejudice…

  10. A pretty significant poor poll again for Labour. I wonder why The Independent are hiding it in an article, instead of writing a separate article about it?

  11. The massive swings against Labour in C&N and GEast have been despite the candidates doing everything they can to distance themselves from Gordon Brown. Given that Ed Balls is his mini-me, I think there will be a massive anti-Brown effect. Plus I suspect the Balls/Cooper sleaze doesn’t go down to well in Wakefield.

    So with any luck Balls is toast. But no sense in the Tories targeting Ed “so what” Balls’s seat – he is almost as big an asset to the Conservatives as Gordon.

  12. My wife is a headteacher and is furious with Balls over the SATS fiasco and the fact he has tried distancing himself by saying he is not getting involved. He is the Sec of State for sake! Tories and Libdems in wakefield need to remind the people of his ineptitues at the next GE.

    On another point one of the probs the Govt face is that any policy they come up with will now will be seen as an opportunistic to try and improve their poll rating

  13. Try as I can I can’t take the Oracle seriously. All periods of incompetent government, according to him, have been times when Labour is in power. Still, one of the great things about our free society is our toleration of perverse views.

  14. Every government since parliaments began has had ‘periods of incompetent government’. It is foolish and naive to claim otherwise. Governments are made up of people and people are fallible. What a good thing they are! With regard to the present political prognostications, let us not forget Mid-Staffs towards the end of some very incompetent Thatcher governance. A Conservative majority of 13,000 was overturned with a 22% swing to Labour and a 9,000 majority. John Major went on to win the next General Election, some two years later.

  15. I obviously totally agree with David.

  16. I’d be tempted to say the periods of incompetent government are the norm. Usually not when a party is newly elected,
    with a new mandate, new leader, perhaps after being out of power for a while. Otherwise downhill all the way.

  17. i´ve said it my self alot that any govenment blue red or gold for that matter will be good for one or two terms then bad afterwards, the only difference with this govenment is it inherited a good set of figures, falling inflation, falling unemployment, strong growth, falling national debt. any incoming govenment will be left with labours normal mess when they leave office, and for any party to say we will cut tax is stupied at this time as we are now in so much debt that tax may have to go up for at least a year or two to pay off the mess gordon brown has put this country in by browing to much at this time

  18. An incompetent government is a government which loses power – so in the end they are all incompetent.

    The best measures of a regime is the dignity with which it conducts its affairs and its ability to raise the dignity of those subjected to it.

    Oddly, the manner of his leaving will become Tony Blair more than anything he did during his time at the top, but that says as much about the general level of incompetence in parliament as it does about him.

  19. Mike:

    “for Scotland 3 party politics”

    No. With PR it will be at least 6 as before + independents, with many possible combinations of coalition and periods of minority government as now.

    After independence, even a rebranded Conservative party can bid for minor party coalition position in contention with LibDem and even Labour, because Labour would not be NewLabour, but Real Labour as in Real Ale.

    Even if the SNP fragmented and there was only the Socialists instead of NewLabour the Greens would make it up to 4.

    The Greens are worth watching. They were cheated in 2007.

  20. “Prof Anthony King wrote in the Daily Telegraph that he thinks Gordon Brown has almost zero chance of re-election. Do we agree?”

    I think you could fairly say that John Curtice does.

    What does Gordon Brown think though?

    People dislike Alex Salmond becaues he looks smug. Have you noticed any recent change in the way Gordon Brown looks? I think that both of them agree with you too.