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	<title>Comments on: Glasgow East</title>
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	<description>Opinion polling and political analysis</description>
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		<title>By: John B Dick</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1258/comment-page-1#comment-450521</link>
		<dc:creator>John B Dick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jul 2008 18:10:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Alasdair Cameron:

There are a few strongly in favour of independence but the pro-union case is not made, in Scotland or England there is only dodgy statistics and negativity. Most Non-independence opinion is soft. They may not fancy independence, but that is not the same as having a commitment to Unionism. 

So long as the SNP government don&#039;t do anything silly, they can rely on NewLabour and English Nationalists to do their work for them. NewLabour will continue to be in denial, believing their own spin when nobody else does.

Scottish Conservatives should have been autonomous for the last decade, but forgot that Unionism is not a Conservative  principle, just a habit. If all three Scottish parties were autonomous the London leadership and media would be in therapy. They couldn&#039;t cope with the Established Church distinction, or the old Scottish Office, never mind devolution.

What were the assumptions that lay behind your use of the word &quot;allow&quot;? Think how that might sound north of the border if DC said it.

YouGov isn&#039;t doing too well either.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alasdair Cameron:</p>
<p>There are a few strongly in favour of independence but the pro-union case is not made, in Scotland or England there is only dodgy statistics and negativity. Most Non-independence opinion is soft. They may not fancy independence, but that is not the same as having a commitment to Unionism. </p>
<p>So long as the SNP government don&#8217;t do anything silly, they can rely on NewLabour and English Nationalists to do their work for them. NewLabour will continue to be in denial, believing their own spin when nobody else does.</p>
<p>Scottish Conservatives should have been autonomous for the last decade, but forgot that Unionism is not a Conservative  principle, just a habit. If all three Scottish parties were autonomous the London leadership and media would be in therapy. They couldn&#8217;t cope with the Established Church distinction, or the old Scottish Office, never mind devolution.</p>
<p>What were the assumptions that lay behind your use of the word &#8220;allow&#8221;? Think how that might sound north of the border if DC said it.</p>
<p>YouGov isn&#8217;t doing too well either.</p>
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		<title>By: Alasdair Cameron</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1258/comment-page-1#comment-450492</link>
		<dc:creator>Alasdair Cameron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:49:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1258#comment-450492</guid>
		<description>I think that people are reading too much into the SNP win. While there certainly is a movement for independence in Soctland, I do not think it anywhere near as certain as some are making out.. All the polls suggest that support for separation is actually pretty static at around 30%.. I agree that a lot could happen in a campaign or a few years, but for now the majority still want the union...

Perhaps the conservatives should allow the Scottish party to be independent and allow them to fight as an autonomous, Scottish, unionist party...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think that people are reading too much into the SNP win. While there certainly is a movement for independence in Soctland, I do not think it anywhere near as certain as some are making out.. All the polls suggest that support for separation is actually pretty static at around 30%.. I agree that a lot could happen in a campaign or a few years, but for now the majority still want the union&#8230;</p>
<p>Perhaps the conservatives should allow the Scottish party to be independent and allow them to fight as an autonomous, Scottish, unionist party&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: John B Dick</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1258/comment-page-1#comment-450486</link>
		<dc:creator>John B Dick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:47:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1258#comment-450486</guid>
		<description>John Charlesworth

In the PR Scottish Parliament, unlike FPTP Westminster, we have had two large parties, two medium sized potential coalition minor parties, 2-3 small parties. There have also been independents.

Even if there were only one large party (e.g. the SNP immediately after independence)it would still be very unlikely to have an overall majority. It would then,as now, if not in a formal coalition, need to find support from one or more of the smaller parties, on a program by program or case by case basis.

That&#039;s a different sort of opposition from Tweedledum and Tweedledee two sword&#039;s length apart at PMQ.

Cross party co-operation, not artificial confrontation, would be the norm. The committee structure, and even the seating in the chamber is designed to foster this, and the existence of the ties to Westminster are an impediment we would be well rid of.

The opposition could just as easily come from the left as the right. The socialists have had a setback due to legal problems, but sooner or later they will be back. 

The Greens may be the party of the future. 

Conservatives, representing the landowning interest were the first political party, then the interests and talent of non-landed wealthy entrepreneurs was recognised as deserving of a place in government and the precursors of the LibDems looked after their interests. The educated and property owning middle class were admitted to the franchise and ultimately universal male householder suffrage needed the Labour party to represent the latest tranche of the electorate.

Now, it looks as if the interests of any social class are secondary to environmental issues, so maybe in the medium term the Greens will advance in the PR parliament which facilitates the formation and growth of new parties. This is very difficult under FPTP as the SDP found.

I do not think that there will be any unionist party in Scotland after independence. We need a Conservative voice, and may have more than one, but if Scotland is happily in the Eurozone and England out of the EU, that will be accepted as immutable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John Charlesworth</p>
<p>In the PR Scottish Parliament, unlike FPTP Westminster, we have had two large parties, two medium sized potential coalition minor parties, 2-3 small parties. There have also been independents.</p>
<p>Even if there were only one large party (e.g. the SNP immediately after independence)it would still be very unlikely to have an overall majority. It would then,as now, if not in a formal coalition, need to find support from one or more of the smaller parties, on a program by program or case by case basis.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a different sort of opposition from Tweedledum and Tweedledee two sword&#8217;s length apart at PMQ.</p>
<p>Cross party co-operation, not artificial confrontation, would be the norm. The committee structure, and even the seating in the chamber is designed to foster this, and the existence of the ties to Westminster are an impediment we would be well rid of.</p>
<p>The opposition could just as easily come from the left as the right. The socialists have had a setback due to legal problems, but sooner or later they will be back. </p>
<p>The Greens may be the party of the future. </p>
<p>Conservatives, representing the landowning interest were the first political party, then the interests and talent of non-landed wealthy entrepreneurs was recognised as deserving of a place in government and the precursors of the LibDems looked after their interests. The educated and property owning middle class were admitted to the franchise and ultimately universal male householder suffrage needed the Labour party to represent the latest tranche of the electorate.</p>
<p>Now, it looks as if the interests of any social class are secondary to environmental issues, so maybe in the medium term the Greens will advance in the PR parliament which facilitates the formation and growth of new parties. This is very difficult under FPTP as the SDP found.</p>
<p>I do not think that there will be any unionist party in Scotland after independence. We need a Conservative voice, and may have more than one, but if Scotland is happily in the Eurozone and England out of the EU, that will be accepted as immutable.</p>
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		<title>By: Jack</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1258/comment-page-1#comment-450450</link>
		<dc:creator>Jack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jul 2008 15:22:14 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I suggest that if independence is achieved for Scotland there is no way a &#039;Unionist&#039; party would come into existence; it&#039;s key platform after all would be &#039;unpatriotic&#039; and so &#039;traitorous&#039;. As such, a fundamentally untenable position and unelectable. I do not think the SNP would split, rather that a conservative / moderate party would evolve to balance the SNP which  is left / centre. But given the demographics of Scotland with a tradition of left wing support I would see such a party spending a long time in opposition.

I think the key issue would be the voting system which would be used.  STV, first past the post, PR,  the Australian system... I note the Australian preferential system ensures that the most hated party has real trouble getting elected. If one wished to wipe the Conservative and minor Socialist parties from an indeepndent Scottish Parliament that would be one way to go...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I suggest that if independence is achieved for Scotland there is no way a &#8216;Unionist&#8217; party would come into existence; it&#8217;s key platform after all would be &#8216;unpatriotic&#8217; and so &#8216;traitorous&#8217;. As such, a fundamentally untenable position and unelectable. I do not think the SNP would split, rather that a conservative / moderate party would evolve to balance the SNP which  is left / centre. But given the demographics of Scotland with a tradition of left wing support I would see such a party spending a long time in opposition.</p>
<p>I think the key issue would be the voting system which would be used.  STV, first past the post, PR,  the Australian system&#8230; I note the Australian preferential system ensures that the most hated party has real trouble getting elected. If one wished to wipe the Conservative and minor Socialist parties from an indeepndent Scottish Parliament that would be one way to go&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: John Charlesworth</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1258/comment-page-1#comment-450358</link>
		<dc:creator>John Charlesworth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jul 2008 09:25:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1258#comment-450358</guid>
		<description>John B Dick

Many thanks. Once the ruling SNP gets independence (if it actually achieves that goal) it will split. Every democracy has more than one party. The Opposition could come from some alliance, along the lines you have described the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party (maybe under a new banner) to try to bring the union back together. 

Anyway interesting and thanks for your perspective.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John B Dick</p>
<p>Many thanks. Once the ruling SNP gets independence (if it actually achieves that goal) it will split. Every democracy has more than one party. The Opposition could come from some alliance, along the lines you have described the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party (maybe under a new banner) to try to bring the union back together. </p>
<p>Anyway interesting and thanks for your perspective.</p>
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