Well, doesn’t this depend upon a personal judgement of whether and how much recent changes in poll popularity are due to the failure of the government rather than the success of the opposition?

Considering many conservatives are claiming it is overwhelmingly the failure of the govt which is the cause of their decline it is a bit perverse to suggest economic recovery is a prerequisite for their poll recovery – this would depends upon the effect of direct causation, which no pollster would agree with.

No, Labour can recover quite easily, provided they aren’t put off their stride, by watching the Conservative challenge implode (if this is to happen).

Any rotten apples on Camerons bandwagon will prove doubly noxious and immediately recontaminate their brand, for although the overcoming of previous barriers to inclusivity has enabled them to spread their appeal into a fuller breadth of society (some of which were previously considered untouchable as far as they were concerned, particularly when Thatcherite doctrine indicated the non-recognition, or destruction, of society), they have not completely dispelled the impression their message has any underlying or unifying theme which can be carry across the full depth of society and into every corner with equal relevance.

The ‘Broken Society’ narratives enters dangerous territory for the conservatives, because it strays very close to a “You’re not alright, Jack” form of top-down active interventionism – the intervention of a strict parent over the head of an indulgent nanny.

For supporters of the Conservatives this may seem the correct medicine for these/for all times, but it remains to be seen how the invalid fares, because the prescription provides no guarantee that the diagnosis isn’t just of growing pains through a period of demographic change.

The Government would need more than a good conference to turn this round.
Their best hope is the economy doesn’t perform too badly.

We are entering the crucial phase over the next 6 months and the next conference season will do much to set the mood.

Having taking on the role of front-runner, the tories need to show they are worthy of it and whether they can last the pace they’re setting, because the closer to the election the more incumbents are given the benefit of the doubt – the first step to show that Labour have been a devil has been accomplished (more by events than by the efforts of the opposition, it must be said), now the challenger must overturn the presumption that the devil you know is a better proposition than the one you don’t.

Any slip-ups by Cameron or the party (and they are beginning to happen) will count double against their chances because it would slow any momentum while distracting any real purpose that exists, so internal party discipline ought to be a big issue right now.

I won’t make any predictions about what will happen, because it still depends on how we react when each of the leaders have their mettle tested under fire of battle – which is the biggest unknown unknown.

My biggest piece of advice to Cameron would be to avoid any thoughts that ‘decontamination’ has been achieved for his party and make it an ongoing process to make sure that no new Aitkens or Archers try to hitch along for the ride.