Comments on: Another poll shows Labour ahead in Glasgow East

By: Labour 17pts ahead in Glasgow East : labouroutlook.com

Labour 17pts ahead in Glasgow East : labouroutlook.com — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 10:18:16 +0000

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By: Robert Waller

Robert Waller — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 12:22:09 +0000

A report that both SNP and Labour private polls suggest the contest is very close:
I’m always very wary and chary about ‘leaks’ from parties’ ‘internal polling’.
For a start, I doubt whether this means commissioned and properly carried out professional polls. At Harris and Wirthlin Europe) we did ‘private polling’ for the Conservatives for around ten year (in my time) and we never did poll in byelections. Any figure are likely to be based on the notoriously unreliable canvass returns.
Second, parties are in the business of trying to win elections – fair enough – and so selective releases of information will be designed to that end. The SNP want themselves to be portrayed a having a better chance than the two published polls. Labour is relying on a high turnout from their traditionl support base in Glasgow East. It is in the best interests of both parties to encourage the idea that the contest is very close.
However, all the above does not detract from the strong possibility that it really will be much closer on Thursday than ‘teen per cent’ suggested by two polls facing all kinds of difficulties in their design and execution.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:06:52 +0000

For all the reservations about this poll, 17% is a big lead to explain away.

By: Brian

Brian — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 18:34:30 +0000

If the 29% figure includes those who may change their mind, then the original percentages attributed to the party support would seem even more suspect.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 16:31:12 +0000

Brian, we can’t even be that sure about the undecideds. The reports just say that 29% haven’t made their minds up yet – that could be 29% don’t knows, which would seem very high – or it could be a separate question asking if people would definitely vote for the party they said or whether they might change their mind, in which case it wouldn’t be particularly high at all!