Comments on: Are Labour really ahead in Glasgow East?

By: ROGER

ROGER — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:48:59 +0000

Now that the james purnell plan of making every one on benefit clean the graffiti & pick up little has been made public, everyone will do the decent thing & switch to SNP.
And Of course Glasgow is going to be one of the trial areas.
The next thing this government will do is making all on benfits wear the yellow star.

By: Scottish Roundup » Blog Archive » The Battle For Baillieston (oh, and rest of Glasgow East as well)

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 20:25:47 +0000

[...] an ICM opinion poll giving Labour a double-digit lead. Or did it? ASWaS, Mike Smithson and Anthony Wells line up to scrutinise the [...]

By: James

James — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:48:00 +0000

I’m convinced that the reported 2005 votes are partly “how I wish I’d voted” rather than clear recollection. Not only did the sample under-report as 2005 Liberals (which is weird with a AB bias), but they over-reported as 2005 SNP voters.

The subsequent PSO poll predicts final shares pretty close to the ComRes unweighted sample, incidentally.

By: hard pressed TQY

hard pressed TQY — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 12:08:19 +0000

Common sense would suggest that the broad thrust of the poll would be accurate. Large levels of benfeit dependency is constituencies like Glasgow East mean that the population will naturally be disposed towards Labour. With housing paid for and local taxes paid for as well as other benefits available they will support statist parties like Labour without fear of the consequential tax increaes that they won’t have to pay. The only thing that could possibly throw the contest into doubt would be the extent to which Labour or the SNP are able to mobiize their supporters. Labour will only lose if their supporters lack the commitment to vote.

By: Alex Porter

Alex Porter — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 02:14:41 +0000

The problem with your reasoning Anthony is that the swing already happened. The difference between the 2005 general and the 2007 Holyrood election saw the SNP achieving a seismic shift in voting preference in Scotland. That process has continued since the SNP took government.

In England there is a relationship between a seat and how people voted in the last election, in Scotland there is very little. Things have changed here dramatically!

That said Labour could still hold on here because there are some seats which are half stuck in a time warp…

By: John B Dick

John B Dick — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 01:10:09 +0000

Anthony:

Isn’t it just too big a hill to climb? What is the record swing in “normal” circumstances (GE to GE) or between GE and a Bye election in a “safe” seat? I wouldn’t count the likes of Leyton 1965, or Tatton 1997 as “normal”.

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:35:43 +0000

I remember campaigning in the first post Holyrood Westminster General Election and on a number of occations when I either told people it was for the UK Parliament or how would they vote in an Independence referendum the reply was;

” But we are independent we just voted Yes to it”…..

Peter.

By: Gordon

Gordon — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:39:34 +0000

I’ve been out the last two weekends working in Glasgow East. There is a swing on to the SNP and the Tory/Lib Dem vote will get squeezed. The Labour vote looks like a large proportion will sit in the house rather than vote.

Based on Scottish Parliament 36% turnout then on that basis if 3,000 Labour voters vote SNP and a proportion of the tories/Lib Dems vote SNP to give Brown a bloody nose the SNP will win.

By: ZX

ZX — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 19:49:41 +0000

“but ICM do specify in their question that they want to know how people voted at “the last General Election in May 2005?”

That phrasing is still ambiguous within Scotland. Elections to the Scottish parliament are seen as general elections, with what ICM call a general election being viewed as (and called) a “Westminster Election”.

If I were asked how I voted in the last general election, I would ask for clarification as to which one it was, but I do wonder how many people would, and how many would just assume the polling organisation meant the Holyrood election.

By: Up with socialism

Up with socialism — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:38:16 +0000

I am affraid it will be closer than the ICM said. The tory press have been very clever to spin poverty in glasgow as the fault of labour, when it is the tories fault. The fact labour has brought in the commonwealth games, 3000 jobs via the aircraft carriers and the mini wage and tax credits seems to have been ignored. There is a real policy by the tories to paint the labour party as causing poverty it was Thacther who wrecked the city, not new labour.
The English tories do not care that this result may end the union. Scottish tories are just pawns for them.