Rather to my surprise – I wasn’t expecting anyone to risk polling a by-election in area where social problems are going to make getting a good sample a bit tricky – there is due to be an ICM poll of Glasgow East in the Sunday Telegraph.

In the Crewe and Nantwich by-election the polls over-estimated the level of Labour support by some considerable extent (I think part of the reason may be that don’t knows don’t split in favour of their “usual party” in the way they do at general elections) so bear that in mind when interpreting the results – a small Labour lead, especially one reliant upon reallocation of don’t knows, could still be promising for the SNP.

Glasgow East is going to be somewhat tricky to poll anyway – the most excluded and marginal groups of society are likely to be the trickiest to poll, and they make up a very large proportion of the electorate here, it is mostly tenements, high unemployment and long-term sick, 37% of people in Glasgow East are social group E. I expect there are a high number of people who don’t actually have landline telephones to call! On the other hand, the same marginal groups are the least likely to vote so it may not matter if they are under-represented in the poll – just don’t be surprised if the proportion of people who tell ICM they will vote bears no relation at all to the actual turnout!

The figures should be available later on tonight, there should also be a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times.


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