Labour recovery in latest Populus poll
Populus’s monthly poll for the Times shows a significant drop in the Conservative lead. The topline figures, with changes from Populus’s last poll, are apparently CON 41%(-4), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 19%(-1).
Interestingly YouGov’s last poll also showed a recovery for Labour. Two polls are perhaps a bit too early to discern a trend, but it does looks as though they have begun to bounce back from the awful figures we saw after the local elections. Perhaps it is just memories of that humiliation fading, or perhaps it is the series of bad news stories the Tories have faced since then – Spelman, MEPs, Ray Lewis, David Davis – that have started to have an effect. The problem for Gordon Brown is, of course, that unless he manages to hold Glasgow East any nascent recovery is going to be wiped out by another huge by-election loss.
Filed under: Populus, Voting Intention
intresting conservatives on the back foot maybe. polling in the next few days maybe a week will show weather or not this pattern of a down turn in conservative surport is true if so the resent news that the conservatives are talking about 5p cuts in fuel duty could help them but if labour are on a come back say 30% and conservative say 40% -5% on last month labour +4% on last month then we will see who is or is not putting forward the best policy for britan.
13 points behind is not a recovery for Labour, it’s just the general sway of the polls. I don’t think the Tories have to worry about a resurgence until Labour are consistently under 10 points away from them. It’s just a matter of keeping up momentum.
We are having a chat on PB about the ’summer effect’. The Times was predicting a Labour recovery over summer on the basis that it tends to happen.
Can you help Anthony?
Does such a trend exist.
It is just the usually holiday effect that helps Labour/hurts the Tories?
Is it too early anyway?
Interesting you identifying the David Davis story as a ‘bad news’ story. Everywhere I read, it is a good news story which has won the support from all people from the political spectrum
There is no evidence from previous years of a consistent Labour recovery in July/August summer months . It was there last year but that was the Brown Bounce , in 2003 and 2006 the Conservative position improved in July/Aug , in the other years the movements were inconclusive .
WMA 45:27:18. This means Populus has a deviation of -5. Which is odd. Esp since the detailed poll numbers show that “the Tories have moved into a big lead — 39 per cent against 26 per cent for Labour — as the best party to manage the economy” and “most Labour voters think Brown is a loser”.
At present I suspect this is a slight rogue – after all the real margin of error in these polls is about 5% rather than the stated 3 – but we’ll have to see. When is the next poll?
Stuart Gregory,
The many comments I have read suggest a negative and cynical response to the talk of a 5p reduction in fuel duty. Negative because it is so little, Cynical because it is regarded as an empty promise. And I think if one reads Osborne’s statement carefully it should be regarded as an empty promise. In practise it is merely a promise not to make petrol more expensive when the price of oil goes up.
Its affect on the Conservative’s polling is likely to be negative.
The Conservatives had an even bigger lead over Labour on the economy in the last Populus poll 49 to 32 although I think the wording of the actual question may vary from poll to poll
5p reduction in fuel duty- I got 5p off tonight at the supermarket. So why is 5p off then a political issue I should care about?
(okay, I know my humour is suspect and some don’t see it, but the key point is obvious. A supermarket can do it as a promotion so why should I change how I vote?)
Populus normally do a question asking whether people would trust Cameron/Osborne or Brown/Darling more to deal with economic problems – no idea if today’s poll is the same question or a more traditional “which party” question – the Times suggests the latter.
Anthony , yes you have the same imression tha I have , the smaller number of positive figures for both parties gives me the suspicion that the wording/question is different but the detailed data will tell us .
I am concerned about the expenses stories.
I am an anorak but do feel I’ve been proved right on a number of occasions about gut feel for the kind of things the public pick up on.
And I feel that the expenses stories are damaging.
Someone needs to be made an example of. And that person is Spelman – her case is fairly trivial – but she is Chairman of the party.
I think that we are in a complex psephological situation at the moment. My view is that the Labour Party’s slump is primarily due to a perception that Gordon brown is not a good leader (I bet the Labour Party’s ratings would be higher if Blair was still there). Meanwhile the public are slowly beginning to realise that the current economic troubles are mainly outside the control of the British Government and that things wouldn’t be much different if the Tories were currently in power. People are confused and worried and I suspect a lot could change over the next couple of years.
A couple of points.
Spelman is Chair of her party, and is in charge of compliance with electoral law, which includes expenses.
David Davis may have widespread support for his stance in defence of civil liberties, but his resignation from the position of Shadow Home Secretary (the best place from which to oppose the government on the issue) highlights the divisions within the Conservative party.
I agree that the combination of these negative stories for the tories will provide some respite for Brown, and it will prove to him that his strategy is correct, but it will not do anything to dissuade the public from thinking his policies are incorrect, nor therefore alter the likelihood that Brown will still be in government after the next GE.
I confidently expect a middling recovery for New Labour over the summer. It will have two negative consequences. Firstly New Labour will be less likely to remove Brown. Secondly, once Brown is convinced he has a recovery under way, there will follow a torrent of the kinds of polices that caused the third rock bottom to begin with. Labour is sinking like a ship not a stone. It will bounce up before dropping even further.
I see David Cameron is talking about public morality at the moment. While I feel this is worth mentioning, it makes me think of the “Back to Basics” of the last Conservatives government – which didn’t work too well. I think the Conservatives had better stick to feeding off current economic worries rather than banging on about social problems. It may stir some memories.
phillp jw
it was mainly a point that whenever the conservatives talk about tax cuts their poll rating goes up and labours down as they are seen as a tax grabing party and not a tax cutting party but with all the news at the mowment both good and bad for both sides it dose not change a thing as someone said in another comment this may jus be a one off rouge poll.
Whether the polls are going to show a Labour recovery, or Populus is trying to get it’s method in order (as last month’s poll by said organisation was the historic high for the Tories) only time will tell. I put this poll in the ComRes column (along with MORI) and will await the YouGov poll before making any predictions.
Sad to see today’s headlines. Both Sky and the Beeb lead on the BCC prediction of a UK recession. I have been accused of ambiguity on whether I think the UK will have a recession. Now I will call it: with The Economist pollsters predicting 1.2% growth in GDP next year, this is recession territory.
So how will this effect the polls? Most observers anticipate higher interest-rates in the next quarter. Add this to higher inflation (all the fault of the UK consumer Our Great Leader claims) and increasing negative-equity (but don’t blame Northern Rock, hey Mr Darling) and expect the polls to move against Labour sans silly-season.
I see in the news today that economic forcasters are now putting the chances of the UK going into technical recession in the next few months as about 50:50. If we do go into recession can anyone honestly any result other than a Tory landslide at the next GE.?
GB has always made a big thing about no more boom and bust – shame he can’t actually deliver on it.
A dip into recession isn’t necessarily the same as a “bust”.
The public might be persuaded that Labour’s “recession medicine” is better than the Conservative’s.
The Tory lead is healthy, but proposing policies on fuel duty is risky – at best it exposes how tight things are, such is the minor effect on families of a 5p cut (to be followed by a balancing rise if the barrel price falls). The worst is that it could be read as a tax rise (if the Treasury is involved there’ll be some scurrillous tinkering with the forecasts)
John TT
I agree that recession isn’t bust but this Government is effectively bust both as a party and a Government – Government borrowing is getting out of control, tax receipts are down and if we go into recession this will only make matters worse, and they can hardly raise taxes any more at the moment.
As for the Tory 5p fuel tax cut – unwise in my opinion. The tories don’t need to give out any specific policies at the moment. By doing so they can only show minor differences when the current situation needs a sledgehammer and it will not help the Tories only hurt them. The Tory policy may be a better method but it wouldnt help hard pressed families by much at the moment.
I think the summer recover isn’t so much a Labour thing as a general effect where the pressure comes off. Thus just as we have seen a slight recovery for labour in the last two years when they have been under pressure so to in previous years when the Tories have been in the doldrums it has helped them.
Best I can come up with is that a percentage of the population make up their mind in light of what is on the news the week they are polled and judge those who are losing harshly. Less politics on the telly therefore means respite for the party in the firing line.
In some respects this could be the same phenomena that sees the Libdems gain in an election due to the oxygen of publicity. This is sort of cutting down on the carbon monoxide of negative coverage.
Anthony I think it might be worth your while having a go at a separate thread on the whole “O2 vCO” theory and whether there is evidence for it and whether it might mean that summer polls tell us more about the underling vote and how many are actually “Floating” or due to this weeks headlines.
Peter.
KTL – If Osborne came up with sledgehammer proposals he’d be rightly kicked from all sides, but I’m struggling to think of what such proposals might be anyway.
Inflation, interest rates, employment/unsemployment levels aren’t indicating that we’re “bust” in the same way that we’ve been bust in the past. I’m not under-estimating the power of a “recession” headline though, so I agree Brown would be in a much weaker position.
Peter, “the underling vote” gave me first smile of the day! Comres ask a “do you generally think of yourself as a,b,c,d” but the figures rarely show much change from one to another so i’m not sure it’s an accurate reflection of “underying” allegiance.
Although it is early days this backs up my assertion that all this talk of a Labour meltdown and terminal decline is somewhat premature. Tory woes are taking time to sink in but may finally be affecting their poll rating. And Boris Johnson’s regime has got of to a bad start and it is easy to see his opponents able to pick off further members of his team over the next 6 months given the ease with which the first two have gone.
John tt,
It is difficult to compare any figures now with yesteryear. For example:
Unemployment? Public payroll is inflated, but how many jobs are productive. Keynsian economics (pay a man to dig a hole, and another to fill it) do not add to the national wealth, but redistribute income from the efficient sectors to those that aren’t. [Also, we have discussed sickness=benefit [sic] before].
Inflation? CPI or RPI? Same basket or different? Independent audits, or one by Blair’s Clowns (as The Economist labeled the revamped NAO). We only have an EU-ordained measure now…!
Interest-rates? If my memory is correct then interest-rates hit 15% briefly (as part of our misguided ERM policy) in 1992. What matters are real interest-rates. Especially now that Gordon Brown has indebted our nation (and interest payments will soon outstrip our defence expenditure).
Depression? Define (other then Our Great Leader’s state-of-mind)? What we are heading for is stagflation; long-term inflation with slowing growth. A sharp recession is better then a mish-mash long-term slow-down which allows inflation to get out-of-hand.
Expect an October election that will see the demise of the Labour Party, and the painful revival (albeit necessary) of Thatcherite/Josephian [sp?] economics. And expect one more small-businessman (moi) to call it a day, unfortunately…!
First couple of weeks of July is when a lot of older voters (more Conservative), voters with kids at independent schools (overwhelmingly Conservative) and yuppies (now shown to be more Conservative) all go away on holiday to get the best of the low prices before the school-holiday rush. Stay-at-homes are the young middle-aged with kids (one of areas where Labour has held up best) and the really poor and people on benefit (overwhelmingly Labour).
In two or three weeks time all this will reverse and I would expect to see a bigger Conservative lead restored.
I don’t think it’s much to do with changes in political allegiance.
Fluffy – Depression is not a word I used, so I won’t define it. Stagflation (recession + inflation) isn’t necessarily long-term either.
you say : “A sharp recession is better then a mish-mash long-term slow-down” That’s boomandbust in a nutshell. Free-market = a regular shake-out of the failures so the green shoots can breathe. Not electorally popular.
Whichever inflation measure you believe and however you look at interest rates, they are still under control. Inflation rises are “cost-push” so far and it could well fall sharply in 2009.
I don’t agree that public services don’t contribute to the national wealth. I work in the private sector and as my contributions here prove, I’m a complete waste of space!
Recession is 2 quarters of negative growth.
Stagflation would probably be very low growth and rising inflation.
Low growth is not a recesssion.
john tt
I remain unconvinced by your conviction that Labour’s problem is solely Gordon Brown although I think Blair would have been more popular. As I see things the polling reflects general disgruntlement and some anger with the policies of the Government plus the inevitable polling effect of less rosy economic circumstances. This is coupled by a generally benign view of the Conservative leadership at least when compared to that of Labour.
As to the recession question JJB is right in his definitions – but the economy is not a single entity. There are some sectors already experiencing recession – housing building being a very stark example (and we may see these problems feeding through upstream as wellas in the construction market generally). More importantly from a polling perspective, perceptions (and some truth) about inflation are more damaging that a technical recession or rises in unemployment.
Simon – some areas of the economy are on the up as well, but in the round, it is in the process of potentially going belly-up.
I’m not convinced Brown’s the problem either(you might have meant some-one else), though I would say that the “team” was weakened when Blair left No 10 and Brown left No 11. Apart from that, I would agree. And Blair/Brown would have dealt with many of the problems much better than Brown/Darling.
If expectations of inflation rise far enough to tip the balance between job-loss fears and wage demands, then the nasty sort of inflation could take hold.
You must excuse me if I seem to have a bee in bonnet about fuel duty. It’s because I do. If I were Brown I’d slash 10p off straight away, and hint that I would cut it further should fuel prices continue to rise significantly above the inflation rate.
Admittedly, this would not be without its risks. But Thatcher and Blair didn’t get a reputation for being strong Prime Ministers by pussyfooting around.
Up until now the Conservatives have done a good job reassuring people that they are a strong party ready for government. But if the economic situation has significantly improved by the time of the next election then the Conservatives may have to do better in order to ensure a comfortable majority.
The Brown administration is so dysfunctional, with open warfare even in No 10 (see FT & Times) and disarray bordering on despair in the rest of government and the party (see eg Guardian) that any recovery in the polls is almost certain to be temporary.
When “ultra-safe” Labour seats have great difficulty in attracting candidates something remarkable is happennig.
It’s not being reflected in any real polls. Labour is getting a real thrashing at local council by-elections.
In the last week one’s had a real sense of panic.
Regarding Boris, does anyone really care about these people? I was more worried that he attended a gay march, not exactly what he was elected for and a real bonus for the BNP.
I know the economy doesn’t revolve around my shop but the first quarter this year I had sales 8% lower than last year and the second quarter was down 10%. In the last 6 months down our street 5 shops have shut and there are now more shops ‘For Let’ than there are open selling things. Depressing
It is well worth noting that 13% is still the second highest Conservative lead Populus has ever recorded – in the immediate aftermath of the local elections it was 11%.
As the election comes upon us the electorate will expect to know what the Conservatives actual policies are.
While Labour clearly need to get their act together to provide a strategy for dealing with our current problems,
the current Labour-knocking by Cameron and Co. will not see them through.
[...] Polling Report’s Anthony Wells reckons it’s a recovery, as does Political Betting’s Mike [...]
And we all believe Populus don’t we !! To me , a lead is a lead is a lead – there ain’t no going back now – you can forget the old methodology of Populus and one or two others – the people have now spoken in the biggest POLLS , council elections , London Mayoral , By-elections and so on – just count the days and watch the headlines !
Mai, so what you are saying here : While Labour clearly need to get their act together to provide a strategy for dealing with our current problems : is that Labour havent got any policies either! Unless telling people off for leaving too much food on the side of their plate counts.
‘Recovery’ is the correct word when a thing moves up–it doesn’t axiomatically mean that Labour’s problems are over. Labour’s percentage went up from absolutely dire to nearly absolutely dire. Recovery doesn’t mean ‘problem solved’ for Labour.
I know I have said this here and elsewhere before, but think it is worth reiterating, especially on a site devoted to polling analysis, that I have always considered the hypothetical voting intention the least interesting question. I said this when I was taking polls for Harris between 1986 and 1994, and I still believe it.
If one looks at the more important and less transient results from this latest Populus poll, it is still dreadful for Labour. 13% behind on party trusted with the economy, leader not seen as up to being PM, confidence in family finances on a steep slide … all these indicators are more lasting and a better prediction of a general election. 13% lead, 20% lead on voting intention – no significant difference.
Labour will lose the next election (and by lose I mean either be the second largest party or lose so many seats that the downward momentum clearly shows them to be rejected as a government) unless the economic situation improves markedly by 2010,and they may still lose then, on a ‘time for a change’ basis – and this applies whoever the PM is, Brown, Straw, Harman, Miliband, or Captain Fantastic!
Mike, a lead might be a lead, but it’s not worth much if you’ve lost your dog.
Thomas,
It’s worth even less if there’s no plug at the end of it.
Peter.
Adrian,
Whether you like it or not, Labour are in Government and following a string of u/s leaders the Tories are still in opposition. I see there is at last a policy today……they will pay us to recycle……perhaps they will comment tomorrow on what to do with the food we waste…..why not try pig bins !!!!
They will have to do a bit better than this sort of guff, why do they not tell us how the Cameron is going to put it all right ?
Peter and Thomas – Not much fun if some-one’s sold the lead from off your roof when the sun was shining either.
We better stop this now there is no telling where it will lead….
Peter.
“I want to lead a government humble enough to know its place ”
-Gordon Brown
“You can lead a horticulture but you can’t make her think”
- Dorothy Parker
Anthony:
“The problem for Gordon Brown is, of course, that unless he manages to hold Glasgow East any nascent recovery is going to be wiped out by another huge by-election loss.”
I’m trying hard, every day, to get my mind round the concept that Labour can lose in Shettleston and Easterhouse. It is one of the few remaining constituencies where voting is tribal.
If they do indeed lose, and especially if they win by only a very small margin, those who are either in denial themselves or are disingenuously put up to publicly deny will dismiss it as a “protest vote” and “only” a bye-election, and indeed the seat may well revert to Labour at the GE.
Even so, that would be a portent of huge significance for the future of the Labour party either as a potential party of Government, in the short term in FPTP England, (aka Britain) and far longer in the crowded Scottish 6/7+ party spectrum of the PR parliament in an independent Scotland in which they will be contenders for coalition minor party status with the Greens, LibDems, Conservatives and Socialists.
Their ranking among these others depends firstly on numbers but otherwise, as the most recent failed party of government, their place is the one the Conservatives would vacate as the least attractive partner of all.
It is hard to believe that it could come to that, considering Scotland’s contribution to the early history of the Labour party, but if they can manage to lose in Glasgow East of all places then I for one will accept that they will not be in government in Scotland for decades and some other party of the left will replace the failed brand.
It can’t possibly be as bad as that.
Can it?
Maybe not – electoral politics in Scotland isn’t my forte, let along in Glasgow. I’m seeing more comments from people now that Labour are likely to hang on – I’m really not in a position to know (and I’d be surprised if we got any Glasgow East polls – areas of extreme social exclusion like that are probably not easy to poll!)
Anthony,
I am going down on Saturday so by Sunday night I should be posting on the Glasgow East page, my impressions of how it is going.
Peter.
‘Labour’ have insulted the Scot.electorate far too long. I am
amazed that they have the temerity to even walk through the
East End of Glasgow without noticing the delapidation and
dereliction after decades of ‘Labour’ control. Not too many
of their m p’s look as though they need a feed – no surpise
considering the expenses they have claimed (and been paid)
OUR MONEY ! They are the people who castigate ‘profit’
and ’success’ while blatantly kidding their constituents that
they have their interests at heart – now the chips are down
we’ll see them scuttling for the undergrowth (with bulging
pockets) with little or no thought for the poor east enders
left behind to battle on to make ends meet despite decades
of wonderful ‘Labour’ control. I rest my case.