A third new poll

After new YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls, we have the third new poll in 24 hours. The latest ComRes poll for the Independent has topline voting intentions of CON 46%(+2), LAB 25%(-1), LDEM 18%(+1). It as conducted between the 25th and 26th of June, and there is clearly no sign of that strange YouGov slump in Lib Dem support here.


100 Responses to “A third new poll”

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  1. No sign of any Tory slip either as a result of Davies/Spellman.
    I think the public have more to worry about now.

    Read your piece on Politics Home. Interesting stuff.

    I wonder if Peter has seen the Telegraph and knows there is a Scottish by election coming up?

  2. Glasgow East looks as safe Labour as safe for Labour can be these days.

    Labour: 18,775 (60.7%), SNP: 5,268 (17%), Liberal Democrat: 3,665 (11.8%), Conservative: 2,135 (6.9%), Other: 1,096 (3.5%)

    Majority: 13507 (43.7%)

    Labours vote has fallen in recent years but it’s still more than everyone else put together. Even with Labour down from 40% to close to 30% and the SNP vote doubling from 18% to 36%. that would still give Labour on a third less at 12,500 and the SNP at 10,500, so even with the loss of a personal vote and a low turnout an SNP win would be a massive result.

    Still that doesn’t mean we won’t go for it.

    Peter.

  3. I reckon we could see some serious anti-labour tactical voting there. It’s a toss up between Libdems and SNP who the voters will get behind.

  4. Great ComRes POLL coming into line like all the others with YouGov – now we are seeing a steady trend emerging.

    As for the Liberal vote – the true figure for that is borne out in the Boris Johnson constituency – jusy scraping through.

    The Labour vote seems to have vanished there – well some of it went to the BNP & Greens ! Natural territory perhaps.

  5. This does’nt look like a popular blog – perhaps some of my predictions are needed – plus it needs to get back onto the subject in hand .

    This new POLL by ComRes just brings into line another POLLING company with YouGov – as for the Liberal discrepancy between them – it’s been borne out in the Boris Johnson Constituency that the Liberals who are the by-election champions have run out steam – so their true POLL is about 17%.

    Labour i find hard to make a comment or prediction on after the by-election , they seem to have lost their votes to the BNP & Greens – mmmmm !

    Anyone still doubting my prediction of a Labour Party break up before the next election ??

  6. Well these extra polls leave the WMA as 46:26:17. I/MORI continues to flatter Labour they are 3% out on the Retrospectives. I still think the Labour vote will slip 3-9 points over the summer though. But at the moment it’s flat at 26-27% and has been since early May.

  7. If politics quieten down, as they normally do over the summer, the Labour vote will actually increase to above 30%(but no more than 33%) by Sept/Oct. Still a healthy Tory lead of 10-15%.

    This will happen because (hopefully) Gordon Brown will be out of the limelight (take him on a long holiday please Sarah), people may remember how dire things were during the last Tory government, and will also give credit to the positive achievements that have taken place to this country over the last 11 years (assuming there are no more government/civil service cock-ups in the meantime).

    At the same time with the media (a naive hope perhaps) giving more of a spotlight to the Tories and their lack of policies, people will question what they would actually do if they were in power.

    But this will only reduce Tory lead to 10-15%. You can only do so much by claiming support for past achievements and raising fears of a return of previous Tory governments. Labour has to articulate values (not so much policies) for the future. There is only one person in the government who is best placed for this but I doubt whether they have the guts to go for it. More on that another time perhaps.

  8. Looks like Wendy has had enough, this from the BBC.

    “Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander is expected to announce she will stand down, the BBC understands.

    Ms Alexander has come under pressure after breaking donation rules and faces a one-day ban from parliament.

    The Scottish Parliament’s standards committee ruled that she failed to declare donations to her leadership campaign on her register of interests.

    Ms Alexander, who became leader last September, is preparing to make a statement at the party’s Scottish HQ.”

    Peter.

  9. Peter:
    I’m surprised they didn’t slip a note to the Scotsman last night!

  10. Polls are a-settling. Cannot understand why anything should change over the silly-season.

    Interesting article about Scotland’s contribution to the UK in this week’s The Economist. Some of this has been trailed in Scotland already, I believe, but it is nice to see the fallacies of most commentators.

    Off-topic, so please forgive: Bagehot (The Economist UK commentator) suggests that New-Labour were planning an election around this time, until the Cabinet found it’s Jonah capabilities. A June 2008 election: who’d a thunk that…? *)

  11. Gareth – I think you’re being very optimistic about the polls over the Summer. The way I see it the polls will remain very much as they are – Labour mid 20’s – Tories mid 40’s for the forseeable future.

    By the time of the next election the Tories will have been out of office for 13 years -that’s long enough for most people to forget how good or bad they were.
    Just as 18 years out of power, in 1997, was long enough for most people to forget how dreadful Labour were in the 70’s.

    Frankly I think even if the Tories were poor at the moment, which they’re not, they’d still win the next election such is the disillusionment with the current Government and its leader.

  12. Gareth may have a point but Labour’s problem isn’t Gordon Brown – taking him on a long holiday might please folk like me but the electorate seem to have gone off Labour. A focus on the Conservatives in the media (assuming this happens) would run the risk – from a Labour perspective – of the lead getting bigger and David Cameron consolidating his position.

    On the smaller parties the only one that seems to be doing well at present is the BNP – and even there the picture is mixed. For the Lib Dems there has yet to be any movement from the position prior to Ming’s assassination – Clegg remains surprisingly anonymous with Vince Cable now the only LD with a real public profile. The Greens – despite the huge propaganda efforts of the BBC supporting their political agenda – have failed to make any real advances outside the few places where they were already strong.

    We aren’t going back to a two-party situation in polling but dislike of Labour plus Conservative consistency is squeezing everyone else (except the BNP).

  13. Keith,

    using the limited polling evidence we have, there’s no doubt who voters will swing behind in Glasgow East. As the SNP sweep all before them, the Lib Dems in Scotland are struggling to keep in double figures. Things have changes fundamentally since 2005 and Dunfermline is a lifetime away in political terms. Besides, demographically Glasgow East is not fertile territory for the Libs, and I guess local organisation is non-existent.

    Even working on the May 07 figures, Glasgow East is a tall order for the SNP (and an impossibility for the Libs – 6% isn’t a platform for winning anything but £500 back). It depends if traditional Labour voters switch, or just stay at home. Andrew Neil (not someone whose opinion I normally respect) has just been on BBC News suggesting anything is possible following Labour’s Henley fiasco, and also alluding to another possible by-election in Scotland, for Westminster. He didn’t name a seat, but I suspect it might be Glenrothes, overlapping mostly with the SNP’s Central Fife seat. If not there, then I’ve no idea.

  14. It’s official Wendy has resigned.

    As to Glenrothes being a by election it’s possible but personally as the local MP is battling cancer i hope he recovers. there’s politics and then there is acting like vultures.

    Local party managers of course have to step things up if there is the possibility of an MP not being able to continue and this is clearly a bad time for Labour to have a by election anywhere, but we should try to rise above that when it is a matter of some ones ill health.

    This being a polling blog however on the basis of the 2005 result and current polls the SNP could potentially win this one, i just hope it isn’t called.

    Labour: 19395 (51.9%), SNP: 8731 (23.4%), Liberal Democrat: 4728 (12.7%), Conservative: 2651 (7.1%), Other: 1861 (5%).

    Majority: 10664 (28.5%).

    Peter.

  15. Peter,

    you’re quite right to remind me that we are talking about people who are going though a very tough time. I was completely ignorant of the nature of John MacDougall’s illness, and of course I wish him a speedy recovery. Although Andrew Neil was referring to another MP stepping down, since I didn’t know how ill Mr MacDougall was or wasn’t, I shouldn’t have guessed. I’ve been too caught up in what has been an exciting day politically, and I should have kept my speculation to myself.

    My apologies to everyone for any offence caused.

    Steven

  16. The Glasgow East tactical voting split will clearly show the dividing lines for the medium-term realignment so long as the SNP prove incapable of mounting a realistic challenge, but even then that will only raise their eventual high-water mark before political reality comes into play again.

    My overriding feeling remains that there are some bitter internal battles being fought in this run-up to the next GE because we are at a turning point in the 30 year cycle.

    The conservatives are not out of the woods yet as this silly season looks to extra-parliamentary affairs and it may well be the time when more scandal trickles out, but cannot be prevented from hitting the headlines again. This is a story which is bubbling under and seems certain to explode at the least opportune moment for them, so I doubt it will happen anytime before H&H returns DD unless he is exposed as a guilty party. Will Alan Duncan be the next one to dragged over the coals, or has the Spelman case not yet concluded?

  17. I was very tempted to plump for the SNP winning in Glasgow East, but I didn’t know enough about the situation to say. Being as things seem to going quite well for the SNP administration – at least in comparison to the current UK government, an SNP win doesn’t sound so unlikely as it might say 12 months ago.

  18. Cllr Peter Cairns spoke:

    It’s official Wendy has resigned.

    As a simple Englishman, is this her resignation as leader of the Labour Party in Edinburgh, or has she resigned her seat…? [Depression or smoke-and-mirrors?]

    The BBC is not clear, at least to my eyes. Good luck to the SNP in Glass-gee ‘east, and where-ever Alex’s sister claims to represent! :P

  19. Fluffy,

    Wendy has stepped down from being the Labour Leader in he Scottish parliament. John MacDougall is the MP for Glasgow east who is battling cancer, and as jack McConnell MSP for Motherwell & Wishaw is soon off to be high commissioner for Malawi the Westminster foreign affairs committee has suggested that he stand down as an MSP in advance.

    So two potential by elections one each for Westminster and Holyrood.

    Peter.

  20. Fluffy,

    Wendy has stepped down from being the Labour Leader in he Scottish parliament. David Marshal stepping down due to ill health is the MP for Glasgow East.

    John MacDougall who is battling cancer, is in glenrothes and as jack McConnell MSP for Motherwell & Wishaw is soon off to be high commissioner for Malawi the Westminster foreign affairs committee has suggested that he stand down as an MSP in advance.

    So it’s one confirmed by election in glasgow and two potential by elections one each for Westminster and Holyrood.

    Peter.

  21. Keith:

    “It’s a toss up between Libdems and SNP who the voters will get behind.”

    No, it is quite clear that they will get behind BOTH and the effect will be dissipated.

    There are many Labour voters who see the SNP as the enemy. That’s partly because so many SNP activists are ex-Labour and therefore seen to be disloyal. It would be disloyal to vote for them too. My guess is that many Old Labour voters will stay at home, resulting in a very low poll.

    This is a typical Glasgow seat and if the SNP do manage to take it then its all over and those who oppose independence might as well just give up now. I don’t think it will be as clear-cut as that, but it is more likely by a big margin than 12 Cons or 0 LibDems.

  22. Well much as I think the one day suspension of Wendy wasn’t merited, she did make a mistake but it wasn’t intentional, one good thing about it is that i really do think we will have some new Scotland only polls in the next few weeks so that will help to get the picture in to clearer perspective.

    I’d think Labour would want the Glasgow East by election out of the way before their conference in the September. To be honest I don’t think we can win this one. With Labour on 60% of the vote it’s just a step to far.

    Peter.

  23. Any result – no matter what the outcome in Glasgow particuarly, will not make many headlines in the main & important part of the UK – Scotland does’nt show any trend that is seen nationally apart from the UK wide disintegration of the Labour Party.

    Any growth in the SNP vote at this by-election is purely on the back of the Labour demise – they are one and the same ideology wise.

  24. Then maybe Scotland can be seen as a contender for independence – but while it still votes in this manner – it will look foolish and no better than Kosovo!The next general election will see a swing at last for Scotland to a 21st century political agenda – when the Tories take the 12 seats as a starter as I reliably predict.

    Perhaps we can now get back onto subject & away from a minor inconsequential part of the UK !!

    My apologies for so many entries – it seemd to not accept certain political terms i was using

  25. “there’s politics and then there is acting like vultures.”

    The difference is barely discernible most of the time -I doubt whether Wendy Alexander sees it.

  26. Could anyone here tell me what polling figures we would have to see, that may indicate Labour could finnish third behind the Lib-Dems in a future GE or is this near impossible I distantly remember the 83 election ( correct me if I am wrong) the Labour and SDP Liberal national vote was neck and neck at about 25%- 23% respectively, but Labour ended up with many more MP`s Than the Alliance
    Would this still be the case today?
    If the Tories were in Labours position would there be a similar outcome?

  27. It would depend heavily on the distribution of votes. Frankly once Lab-Lib=20% we are in uncharted territory and the normal models won’t necessarily work. Of the 100 lib-dem “target seats” 41 are Labour held and 59 Conservative, but of course on present form swings from C to LD seem unlikely. Equally if the country (esp England & Wales) just decides it can’t STAND Labour (esp if led by Gordon Brown) there may be tactical anti-labour voting which could boost LDems when they are 2nd to Labour.

  28. ‘Any growth in the SNP vote at this by-election is purely on the back of the Labour demise – they are one and the same ideology wise.’

    A simplistic analysis given one wants to be part of the Union and one doesn’t. A fairly major difference in ideology I would argue.

  29. ‘Then maybe Scotland can be seen as a contender for independence – but while it still votes in this manner – it will look foolish and no better than Kosovo!’

    And so recognised as independent by the USA and the EU etc; I think most/many Scots would perhaps accept that as a great result, especially once you throw in 83% of what is currently UK oil…

    (One should really only be an oracle in other people’s opinion; to self declare can be seen as bombastic…)

  30. Nbeale
    Thanks
    Things are so similar to the seventies at the moment the only things that are missing at the moment are power cuts and as “The Oracle” mentioned a break up of the Labour Party, could he be right again I wonder?

  31. Mike “the oracle” Richardson

    I think the fact that everyone on this blog seems to ignore your tedious and repetitive offerings speaks volumes. The key matter facing increasingly worried Labour Mps over the summer is whether kicking out Gordon Brown would be the best way of avoiding a worse result in 2010 than Michael Foot had in 1983.

  32. NBeale – don’t the recent by-elections show that core Labour supporters are equally liable to stay at home and switch in similar numbers to both LD and Con as LD voters are likely to turn blue?

  33. Re David Bowtell (June 29 9.53pm)

    Yes, spot on; that is the key issue at the moment (other than the huge suspense that we are all under wondering if Cameron will ever have the balls to make a definite policy commitment on anything. Talk about Brown being called a ditherer).

    Will Labour MP’s discover a spine that they didn’t have last summer when a significant number must have known then that Brown didn’t have what it takes, but went with him anyway.

    But the method of change to a new leader is almost as important as who the new person is. Who’s your money on?

    PS Incidentally, any silly talk that a government changing it’s leader twice without having a GE would be unconstitutional is just that. We elect parties with their manifestos to power not presidents (thank God). Mind you, if some people are so keen to be given the decision about who the PM is, maybe they should question how our our head of state is decided (not just hereditary but nearly always male). If we really need a head of state (a good question in itself) maybe it’s time we had at least some say who ours was.

  34. Gareth – We elect parties with their manifestos to power not presidents (thank God).

    Yes we do, and it would be good if parties actually carried out the manifesto promises that they were elected on.

  35. The Glasgow east By election will be the 24th of July. So that gives us 18 days to mount a campaign.

    Interesting information for those of you not from Glasgow, the traditional Glasgow fair holiday still popular with many working class people is the last two weeks in July.

    So have Labour chosen this date to coincide with the holiday to keep the turnout down or is it just coincidence?

    Peter.

  36. Dumping Gordon won’t work – it’s Labour that is poisoned not the grumpy one. As I see it the polls aren’t punishing the Leader but the Party – for being divided, for chopping and changing, for presiding over a surge in inflation, for too high taxes, for the debacle of Iraq, for failing to equip our armed forces properly, for the target driven public sector culture, for the rising number of strikes, for the PC, nannying of Harman et al, for singling out motorists for attack, for overseeing the closing of thousands of pubs, for too much immigration, for rising violent crimeespecially with guns and knives, for unruly school children, for dirty hospitals… Folk just want to give Labour a kicking.

  37. Gareth and Simon Cooke

    Couldn’t agree with you more, Gareth, that Cameron has got to come clean on substantive policy and then we’ll see whether people believe him or come to view him as ‘Chameleon Cameron’ which I think is what he is.

    I think you are wrong, Simon; Major had about 20 months in the run up to the 1992 election and economically things were much worse than they are now (3 million unemployed!!)yet he came over as likeable, seemed to manage things well and won the election. Ever since he started dithering-and especially with the election that never was- Brown has been perceived as weak and indecisive and not the sort of leader people trust when times are hard. They may not be saying it in public but lots of senior (and not so senior) Labour figures are giving up on Brown and come the autumn a deputation from the men and women in sombre attire will probably be calling round to number 10.

  38. Let’s not put our politics before facts. 1992 was not 1982, so can we be honest with unemployment figures. [The ruse, much employed by the current Government, of hiding the true figures by shifting people onto sickness allowances had already been copied from the Dutch model.]

    The current downturn (note the reluctance to not say recession) will be persistent (as Ireland is already experiencing). The largest restraining factors will be falling nominal house prices and lower tax-returns. Something will have to give in the public expenditures if the public debt is to meet Government and European commitments. This will extend the malaise.

    Don’t compare Brown with Major: the latter is seen as a statesman! Major had to keep a severely divide party together as the economy recovered in the mid-nineties. Brown’s problems are not party-unity but the lack of quality within the administration.

    Peter Cairns,
    Thanks for your analysis. I have been made aware by the likes of Easterross, ChrisD, and Stuart Dickenson at PoliticalBetting.com. Adding your voice to the debate would be welcome.

    I do hope that the SNP can win at Glasgow East. However, for Scottish Tories, it could be the tipping-point. If Brown is brought down by the election then I cannot see a Scotsman gaining a senior government role for a generation.

    This could push Scotland into independence (and good riddance) and the prospect of a painful economic readjustment. Oil is unlikely to be the panacea to alleviate the disparities within Scotland’s Non-Oil Economy (as you have already intimated in an earlier post).

    David,
    No need for a committee to push Brown. The rumour-mill says that Sarah is already trying to get Gordon to go quietly!

  39. David Bowtell – You can’t blame Cameron for not revealing his policies 2 years before an election.

    Recent history has shown that whenever the Tories do reveal some policies they are invariably stolen by Labour. This has happened on more than occasion not just on IHT.

    Cameron doesn’t need to do anything fancy at the moment such is the despisement of the current Government. I’m sure the Tories have a full raft of plans and policies already written but they’ll only declare them at their time of choosing which will be in the run up to a GE campaign.

  40. I think I read somewhere that Labour usually improves its polling position in the summer months.

    Perhaps success for Andy Murray at Wimbledon will give a little bounce too?

    Fluffy – your “reluctance not to say recession” is noted – I wonder if you realise what you actually said there when you strip out the double-negative! Thatcher changed the method of counting unemployed 12 times – always led to a reduced figure.

    It’s a shame Labour didn’t revert to more accurate counting and stick to it in 1997, but you can’t really describe the shift from JSA to IB as a Labour invention.Or a Dutch one.

    Of course you could argue that Thatcher’s army of sickness benefit claimants were genuinely sick, many taking anti-depressants as a result of becoming part of the mass unemployment strategy of the eighties and seeing their towns closed down.

    Unemployment remains a disease for which neither side has a working solution, but at least mass unemployment is no longer seen as a price worth paying, or a part of any ideological strategy.

  41. John tt – my impression is that the government often improves its position over the summer, just because it’s a break from politics with no new bad news.

  42. Thanks Anthony – I look forward to the abolition of the other seasons in the Queen’s speech!

  43. re john tt July 1st 7.59am

    John – I’d clutch at anything to believe that we are not going back to the awful years of a Tory government but even I have to admit that;
    “Perhaps success for Andy Murray at Wimbledon will give a little bounce too?”
    is a bit of straw clutching too far!

    On the unemployment point; this is at least one area Labour can speak. Not just that we have more jobs than ever before in this country but emphasize the related successes:

    Minimum wage – Labour propose, Tories opposed

    2 weeks Paternity leave – under the Tories no leave at all

    Maternity leave is now a full year – under the Tories what was it? 6 months, and fewer months with actual maternity pay

    Free nursery care for 3 and 4 year olds.

    At long last, part-time & temp workers are getting basic rights.

    And another point often overlooked; women have the right to discuss flexible working hours with their employer.

    Not only did we not get any of these under Tory governments, we didn’t even have an acknowledgement that this agenda existed let alone had any importance. And then they claim that they are the party of the family. Funny that.

  44. Gareth – My only objection to any of that is the wriggle room it gives to the opposition regarding the methods of counting the unemployed/incapacitated.

    It’s difficult to find truly comparable statistics.

    I’m sure sporting success can give a boost to an incumbent Govt, but if you mean I’m hoping Murray actually wins Wimbledon, OK ,I’m clutching all right.

  45. Fluffy – you missed my point. “reluctance to not say recession” is the same as “eagerness to say recession”. I don’t follow your explanation of “tight”, but if the front pages can run with “RECESSION!” at any point in the next year, then it wouldn’t make much difference, as the build up has been so long and people feel the financial effects whether growth is pus or minus a couple of tenths of a percent.

    If the Dutch scam pre-dates the Thatcher scams, I accept your point – I can’t be bothered to mug up on any sort of reading list provided by daft bloggers of any hue, and I don’t exclude yours! Suffice to say, it was not a Labour invention.

  46. I meant Plus of course.

  47. John tt,

    “I meant Plus of course”

    Note to Dr Freud, please explain a Labour supporters view on the UK economic situation, re:

    “people feel the financial effects whether growth is pus or minus

    Sorry mate, could not resist. :)

    [O/T: Firefox 3.0 appears to have a drag-n-drop text-copy facility (used for the above quote). First time I have noticed it in a browser, but I might be wrong…!]

  48. Fluffy, I aim to please! (Though Freud might just as easily think I had my fellow bloggers in my subconscious).

    The sporting bounce from a Murray win might well be a boost for the incumbent Government in Scotland of course – not such good news for Brown.

  49. TWENTY TWO MONTHS AND COUNTING…………….

    That’s how long it is to go to the first Thursday in May 2010 when I believe the next General Election will be held.Turkeys don’t vote for an early Christmas.
    I don’t think any Prime Minister willingly gives up office save on grounds of poor health and as Parliament will break up as the election result comes through from Glasgow East then there will be no fevered plotting going on at Westminster and by the time of the party conferences it will be too late to get rid of Brown and bed down a successor.
    As for David Cameron why on earth should he make any hostages to fortune by producing detailed policies when things are going so well? As it is presumed by one and all that there will be no election until 2010 then the pressure on him to be more explicit can be kept at arms length for sometime yet.
    Finally if there is a seriously deranged Lib Dem supporter out there who seriously thinks his party has a chance in the Glasgow East contest then they really should be sectioned. It’s a two horse race.

  50. Nick – (assuming the polls don’t turn around) What if Brown went in Jan 2010 “for health reasons”?

    Three months of leadership election, followed by a General Election. If the Labour Party (including Brown) thinks HE’s the liability rather than the Party, they might just risk that.

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