That could explain both the rural incumbency and late surge effects.

When LibDems show that they can or might deliver, their majority or perhaps even a second place is secure, and when it is clear that they can’t come anywhere near winning, their vote is insignificant and can be squeezed. In that sense a LibDem vote is indeed a wasted vote.

That’s right. Where the LibDems win, incumbents are secure. Where they lose, and are not a close challenger, the usually lose badly.

ZX

You said,

“The number of SNP supporters who vote Liberal at Westminster is proportionally higher than those SNP supporters who vote with Labour or the Tories.”

I am sure that is correct, but true SNP supporters are only a small proportion of the electorate, most of whom vote SNP at elections. Long-term Labour voters preferring the LibDems to the SNP will compensate for that.

I envisage that there will be LibDem gains as well as losses because the Labour vote is imploding.

John Curtice would not even rule out the possibility of the SNP taking Glasgow East.

I’m not up to date on the socailists legal problems, but if Tommy Sheridan stands, almost any result is possible.

“I can’t see any reason why LibDems should lose proportionately much more of their previous vote than Labour.”

The number of SNP supporters who vote Liberal at Westminster is proportionally higher than those SNP supporters who vote with Labour or the Tories. That would explain why the rise of the SNP is taking greater amounts from the Liberals than the other parties.

I’m sure the fact that SNP and Scottish Liberals are politically similar (apart from the constitutional issue) helps too.

Mike:
I care if there haven’t been polls from Scotland. The English election story is all sewn up, the Scottish one is where it’s interesting.

When have you been wrong? I remember you predicting a poll with Labour below 21%, before or on the day of an election (Local Government, Crewe and Nantwich, London, take your pick), but it didn’t happen. That’s when you’ve been wrong.

This latest YouGov POLL is just an evening out process – maybe YouGov are just letting the others catch up !

The POLL i saw yesterday on the TV where only long term labour voters were interviewed and only 42% said they would vote Labour again must make for frightening news for Gordon Brown.

Cameron was right this week to say that he would’nt be publicly criticizing Gordon Brown – because he is managing to destroy his own credibility himself – where does Brown turn up this week , not long after unveiling the Mandela statue in London , he now appears at the Mandela concert – to welcome a man who endorses Mugabe and helped Mugabe because they both came from a similar political background – mmmm. (i suppose that comment will have the reds under the bed stirring – predictable or what)!

Secondly , i think the headlines this week about the new legislation on biased selection in jobs based on sex and colour splashed across the newspapers will not have gone down well with the voting public.

As i predicted a month or so ago – in the next two years there will be so much crazy legislation put through before they go – it will be mind boggling – it will make for good headlines & another point down in the POLLS each time!

Is this part of Gordons vision he mentioned at the end of last year ? “My vision is to destroy my credibility and that of the government – then you can make a statue of me one day”

In case you missed my comments on another topic – i must repeat my biggest headline prediction – please cut and paste / The labour Party will break up just before or just after the next election & will not re-emerge again as a fighting force – the main part of the UK will eventually become a 2 party state – Conservative versus Liberal – cut and paste.

When have i been wrong ??

Given that 40% of the LibDem vote is in the 12 seats they hold at that includes Kennedy and Campbell they won’t lose all their seats any more than the Tories will get eight.

The BNP thing probably doesn’t mean anything as it isn’t only a small sample but it could just be down to rounding from 1.4% to 1.6%.

With a 4m electorate and 60% turnout that could be the difference between 35k and 37k votes, mind you that’s 37k to many for my liking.

Peter.

I can see a reason why Labour might be losing support, I can even see a reason for LibDems losing support but I can’t see any reason why LibDems should lose proportionately much more of their previous vote than Labour. If that were to happen to the extent suggested in these projections the reason why it is happening should be very obvious.

Unless someone can come up with some explanation as convincing as the explanation for the demise of the SSP, then I would reject that as improbable.

Peter:

How many BNP supporters does it take to move up from 1% to 2% in a small sample?

I agree that the SNP ahead of Labour and the Cons not quite on 20% is credible. Do you think that the unpopularity of Labour is making it less unacceptable to admit to voting Tory, and that the actual vote may no longer show a significantly higher level of support than opinion polls?

If so, and they make 20% and win two or three seats they should be very satisfied with that. The notion (expressed on these pages) that the UK leadership should castigate the Scottish party for failing if it doesn’t to a lot better than that shows a profound ignorance not only of recent history, but elementary arithmetic.

The Liberals are suffering an ultimate squeeze. A lot of Westminster support for the Liberals is shifting to the SNP, as the SNP are now a valid option, whereas before they were a “wasted vote”. The last Holyrood election, and the next Westminster election could well turn out to be re-alignment elections, with the Liberals moving down into fourth place, and the SNP and Tories taking their lost seats.

I can’t beleve that they’ve fallen that low but there’s no doubt that they’re in real trouble. For the record, Martin Baxter’s Scotland predictor says that these levels of support would give the SNP 31 seats,Labour 22 and the Tories and the LD’s 3 each. The problem the LD’s have is that they’re not currently relevant. They’ve no prospect of being in power at Holyrood or Westminster and all the attention is on the other 3 parties. The best they can hope for in the GE is to try and limit the damage.

Labour; 32%, Tory; 19%, LibDem 7%, SNP; 38%, Others 4% (of which the BNP are 2%, which is high for Scotland).

I will be interesting to see if this is repeated in other polls. The SNP slightly ahead of Labour isn’t unexpected in terms of recent polls, nor is the Tories near 20%….

But the LibDems on 7% is a real shocker, if that is repeated elsewhere it will be a real change.

Peter.