Comments on: Another 20 point Tory lead http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1232 Opinion polling and political analysis Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:16:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Jack http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1232/comment-page-1#comment-428908 Jack Fri, 27 Jun 2008 10:07:57 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1232#comment-428908 'I have mentioned this before but economic success does not necessarily lead to election victory - hence the Democrats in the USA in 2000 and the Conservatives here in 1997.' And the demise of Howard in Australia leaving his party out of power federally and for the first time in about 60 years ALL State governments as well. (If I remember correctly at this moment the highest ranked Conservative in power is the Mayor of Brisbane...). ‘I have mentioned this before but economic success does not necessarily lead to election victory – hence the Democrats in the USA in 2000 and the Conservatives here in 1997.’

And the demise of Howard in Australia leaving his party out of power federally and for the first time in about 60 years ALL State governments as well. (If I remember correctly at this moment the highest ranked Conservative in power is the Mayor of Brisbane…).

]]> By: john t t http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1232/comment-page-1#comment-428833 john t t Fri, 27 Jun 2008 07:38:11 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1232#comment-428833 Fluffy - Sorry I don't know "Gary Elsby" and was rather hoping that my reference to early 1990s debt (caused by the abandonment by i.a. mortgage lenders abandonment of the 3x salary / affordability tests and the abolition of double MIRAS) might pass without too much scrutiny. I don't have to read lengthy tomes to make my little points, and I hope you're not ploughing through them in order to counter. Fluffy – Sorry I don’t know “Gary Elsby” and was rather hoping that my reference to early 1990s debt (caused by the abandonment by i.a. mortgage lenders abandonment of the 3x salary / affordability tests and the abolition of double MIRAS) might pass without too much scrutiny. I don’t have to read lengthy tomes to make my little points, and I hope you’re not ploughing through them in order to counter.

]]> By: Keith http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1232/comment-page-1#comment-428588 Keith Fri, 27 Jun 2008 00:28:15 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1232#comment-428588 Andy D, I agree with you, it's more to do with the leadership sounding and acting as if they have some idea what to do about it, or perhaps relying on past success. Andy D, I agree with you, it’s more to do with the leadership sounding and acting as if they have some idea what to do about it, or perhaps relying on past success.

]]> By: Andy D http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1232/comment-page-1#comment-428390 Andy D Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:48:19 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1232#comment-428390 I have mentioned this before but economic success does not necessarily lead to election victory - hence the Democrats in the USA in 2000 and the Conservatives here in 1997. I have mentioned this before but economic success does not necessarily lead to election victory – hence the Democrats in the USA in 2000 and the Conservatives here in 1997.

]]> By: simon cooke http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1232/comment-page-1#comment-428362 simon cooke Thu, 26 Jun 2008 17:47:26 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1232#comment-428362 We are perhaps making the wrong comparisons - the issue out there is less one of recession and unemloyment and more one of inflation. While we are a long way from the circumstances of the 1970s the dynamic has more parallels with 1977/78 politically and economically (including strikes by public sector workers). The problem with inflation is that everyone is affected but, significantly for Labour, the impact is greatest on the less well off (especially those on fixed incomes). Thus the issue for labour is how to rectify that situation while at the same time protecting the payroll vote and avoiding a full blooded recession. Brown's room for movement is very limited because of the policy walls built up by Blair - he can't cut taxes and spending, he won't increase taxes on the better off and every other source of finance either fuels inflation, pisses off the core vote or both. He is left with public borrowing and/or the Mr Micawber strategy of seeing what turns up. We are perhaps making the wrong comparisons – the issue out there is less one of recession and unemloyment and more one of inflation. While we are a long way from the circumstances of the 1970s the dynamic has more parallels with 1977/78 politically and economically (including strikes by public sector workers). The problem with inflation is that everyone is affected but, significantly for Labour, the impact is greatest on the less well off (especially those on fixed incomes). Thus the issue for labour is how to rectify that situation while at the same time protecting the payroll vote and avoiding a full blooded recession. Brown’s room for movement is very limited because of the policy walls built up by Blair – he can’t cut taxes and spending, he won’t increase taxes on the better off and every other source of finance either fuels inflation, pisses off the core vote or both. He is left with public borrowing and/or the Mr Micawber strategy of seeing what turns up.

]]>