I don’t have television so don’t see Question Time. I think the interesting thing about the audience is that while they will listen respectfully to speakers on the far left whom they wouldn’t ever dream of voting for, and may be angered at a robust exposition of a liberal position on anything from the EU to hanging,the most significant reaction is when they laugh at party-line spin fron one of the two alternate governing parties.

Usually it is the party in Government which resorts to the more unbelievable spin or evasion.

It doesn’t matter what the polls show. If you hear the Question Time audience laughing at a government spokesman, a change of government is on the way.

Certainly changes in society can’t be ignored.

We have moved from a heavily industrialised unionised male moderately educated full time workforce to a service orientated small business mixed sex half part time largely ununionised more educated one.

We have gone from 75%+ social housing to 70% owner occupier, we have moved from socialising with our immediate neighbours in our homes to social contact mainly through work and out-with the home.

We have proportionately fewer children and more old people and even though they are both much maligned we have had a generation of comprehensive education and BBC News.

Those last two have meant along with the huge increase in post school education that the gulf in education and knowledge between public and politicians has narrowed considerably.

I watched the rerun of “The Road to Finchley” ( I didn’t think it was that good) and what it showed quite well was that the kind of politician we had in the fifties wouldn’t last five minutes today because people just wouldn’t accept the bluff statements and the lack of detail.

Look at Question Time where it’s pretty much routine for members of the audience not just to challenge politicians but to actually put forward arguments that are every bit as strong.

You can fool some of the people all of the time, but it gets harder as more of them get better educated and informed. Believe me I’ve chaired local meetings where their are people in the audience who know more about it that me or Council officials supposed to de dealing with it. ( okay the knowing more than me probably isn’t a surprise).

Peter.

“except the relative popularity of the two main parties has remained steady around 70% for several years”

I meant the long term. As we have gone from 90% split between the Tories and Labour in the sixties to 70% now so two cynicism has risen.

Peter.

Even the SNP has benefited from promoting itself as the repository of negative feeling, such as towards union, rather than standing up for positive choices – which you can’t because independence is a sham, since interdependence is locked in and integration can’t be reversed, UK or Europe-wide.

Negative campaigning is by definition reactionary and by implication conditional, so if we consider where we are it really shouldn’t be any surprise to see more poll surprises going forward.

We could ask what this volatility means regarding policy platforms, but I think this is something on which we should keep a watching brief.

The current spate of by-elections is forcing the parties to evolve as they deal with realigning terms of debate under this unravelling premiership, and whether they can maintain any coherent unity as internal friction increases will determine the outcome of the next GE.

The fight is on.