There is an ICM poll in the News of the World tomorrow showing the topline voting intentions (with changes since ICM’s last poll in December) at CON 39%(+2), LAB 35%(-1), LDEM 20%(-1).

The poll suggests that David Cameron is continuing to build upon his political honeymoon. Leaving aside the apparently rogue MORI poll last month, this is the highest level of support recorded by the Tories for several years. The poll is also the first measure of voting intention since the news of the Liberal Democrat leadership election has really sunk in and, unlike Populus’s poll in the week, ICM ‘s poll does not suggest that the Lib Dems have sustained any real damage, down just a single point.

There is a surprising contrast between ICM and Populus’s polls this week – ICM had a Tory lead of 4 points, Populus a Labour lead of 3 points; Populus had the Lib Dems falling 3 points to a worrying 16% of the vote, ICM has them on a study 20%, only 1 point down from prior to their troubles.

While ICM have consistently suggested a higher level of Lib Dem support during this Parliament (probably due to ICM’s weighting, which is more favourable to the Lib Dems and Tories than Populus’s), the difference in the drop in the Lib Dem vote is somewhat different. It could simply be the result of the Populus poll having been conducted in the midst of complete turmoil within the Lib Dem party – now that Kennedy has resigned and the immediate crisis passed, the Lib dem vote has recovered slightly in ICM’s poll. Alternatively, it could just be down to simple sample error – let’s wait and see what ICM and YouGov’s polls later this month say.

If there are any other interesting results from the poll I’ll update tomorrow.


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