Comments on: ComRes show 14 point Tory lead

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 16:30:31 +0000

Ever heard of stealth taxes Steve? Gordon Brown spent a decade raising taxes by the back door and avoiding the headline grabbers.There is no room left for manoeuvre and next year his luckless successor may either have to raise frontline taxes or cut public expenditure or both.Unless of course you actually believe the Treasury forecasts of growth in which case two men in white coats may shortly appear at you front door.

By: Steve

Steve — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 14:20:52 +0000

One interesting observation from Phillip is that taxes are up by a record amount. But taxes are in fact a lower share of GDP than under John Major. Income tax basic rate is now 20 p, not 23p. VAT on gas/electric is only 5%- down from 8%. Corporation tax is lower, Capital Gains Tax is lower. Fuel duty is a lower % of the price of petrol now than a few years back. The national debt is lower than in the 1990′s.

It’s clear that everyone feels like they are paying more tax, maybe because of council tax. If they are, it must be because their wages are up, or they smoke a lot.
Maybe folk are confusing huge payments to banks for the mortgage with paying tax to the government. If they borrowed from Northern Rock, they’re about right.

By: By a Hair’s Breadth: Westminster Watch: w/b 2nd June 2008 | The Wardman Wire

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 13:34:23 +0000

[...] ComRes poll showed a 14 point Tory lead (although this was taken before the airing of Dave’s hair-don’t), the Government had [...]

By: PC

PC — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 11:23:05 +0000

I have previously tried posting here but without success. Let’s try once more.

I am genuinely interested to know what people here think of the explanation given at the link below regarding why the opinion polls are so far out when it comes to the support received by the minor parties:

http://sirjohnbull.blogspot.com/2008/05/you-having-giraffe-gov.html

This blogger is primarily interested in the BNP, but exactly the same arguments must apply to all the other small parties. Also, although he concentrates on YouGov, I note that the Populus poll published on 6/5 was equally off the mark when it came to the ‘others’.

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:29:20 +0000

Part of the problem with determining the vote for ‘others’ is perhaps that many of those who say they might vote for the Greens or the BNP ( or UKIP Wolf?) will not in fact have candidates for those parties standing in their constituency. Does this mean they won’t vote at all if their party is not putting up a candidate or as I suspect will they vote for their second choice? In a tightly fought contest that could be vital. It would be interesting if a pollster were to ask supporters of the minor parties-and here I exclude Plaid Cymru and the SNP- who they would vote for as a second choice.

Peter Cairns is probably right when he says the SNP make up 3% of the 10/11% who say they will vote for ‘others’ and I guess that Plaid Cymru make up another 1% but that still leaves 6/7% floating around somewhere half of whom may not have a home to go to on the day but who will still be inclined to do their civic duty.