Waiting for YouGov

Despite the Crewe and Nantwich by-election’s impact on the media’s view of politics, we are still awaiting the first poll since the by-election. The result of the by-election came too late for a full poll in time for the last week’s Sunday papers, and it looks as though all the pollsters avoiding doing anything over a bank holiday weekend immediately after a big by-election win, which could potentially have produced some real comedy figures.

We are finally getting close to some figures though, as we should have YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph either late on tonight or (if the Telegraph publish on Saturday) tomorrow night. The last YouGov poll had a 20 point Tory lead – the by-election may have had a further “aura” effect on the Tories, or Gordon Brown may have been further damaged by the leadership speculation around him. On the other hand, we may have reached a point where Labour are down to a hardcore of support where bad publicity can’t really hurt them much more. Feel free to hazard some guesses in the comments below.

In the meantime, here’s a round up of some other recent polls. YouGov’s monthly inflation expectation tracker for Citybank shows that the average expectation of the inflation figure in 12 months time is now 4.1%, the highest they have found since the tracker began in 2005.

A Populus poll for the Movement of Reform Judaism found 73% of Christians think God is male (some of the reporting also included figures for Muslims, Hindus and so on, but these were based on pathetically small numbers of respondents – 13 Muslims, 11 Hindus and so on, so are best ignored). 42% of people, including 53% of Christians, thought it was right to refer to God solely as “He”, with 31% (including 28% of Christians) disagreeing.

Finally, the British Polling Council has ruled on the complaint against MORI about a Transport for London poll that they refused to release the tables for prior to the mayoral election. The BPC ruled that MORI should have released the tables, and advised that BPC members in future should review their contracts to make sure they didn’t conflict with the BPC disclosure rules (implying that MORI’s problem was their contract with TfL didn’t allow them to release the figures). The tables are up on MORI’s website here. Why Transport for London were so sniffy about letting MORI release them is a mystery to me, the questions are just as laid out in the information that TfL had published, and the cross-breaks don’t reveal anything nefarious, or indeed, particularly interesting.


23 Responses to “Waiting for YouGov”

  1. conservatives 48
    labour 25
    liberal 21

  2. Is that a prediction?

  3. No it’s his three last Girlfriends…….

    Depending on the order they are in, things are looking up or decidedly down.

    Peter.

  4. Hard to know. Philip seems reasonable, but the last YouGov was definitely way out on WMA. I’d believe a CLead of anything between 15 and 25 points.

  5. Okay just for Fun

    In Scotland on YouGov,

    Labour 29%, SNP 32%, Tories 19%, LibDems 16%, Others 4%, Give or take +/-2% for everybody.

    UK; Labour 28%, Tories 42%, LibDems 19%, Others 11%, Again +/-2% all round.

    Peter.

  6. Most likely – a Conservative lead of about 15%.

  7. I see no reason for significant change in the opinion polls for a while. It is pleasing to see a government doing a few things people want, eg, a rethink on the punitive car taxes, but I doubt that will help much. When a government is at 25% in the polls, listening is about the only option apart from giving up.

    On another subject, it seems to me the BNP are getting quite a bit of airtime and a certain amount of credibility which the old national front never got. I wonder if this will convert to seats (up north, I presume) in parliament?

  8. “73% of Christians think God is male”

    What an absolutely ridiculous question to ask anyone.

    46/24/17

  9. Keith – if the BNP did win a seat, it probably wouldn’t be up north. Far and away their best opportunity is Barking.

    Colin – the reason for it was the publication of a new prayer book using “non gender specific” language to refer to god. Presumably the client was hoping that it would show people thought it was wrong to call god “he”, but there goes.

  10. My prediction is

    C45:L25:LD18

  11. If the BNP win a seat in Westminster a lot of people must be Barking.

    Peter.

  12. My guess: 45/25/19

  13. Thanks Anthony.
    I certainly agree that-if It exists-It must be both Man & Woman.

  14. Hey, what’s wrong with ‘they’ for gods? There has been an awful lot of them around since time began. How does the Richard Dawkins line go? Something like ‘we are all atheists, some of just go one god further than others’…

  15. Oh and re BNP/ National Front / Blackshirts in British right wing history, any one else love the old ‘Jeeves and Wooster’ (Fry and Laurie) episode where it is all beautifully rubbished? Should be compulsory on all channels before an election…

  16. I think there will be an ‘aura’ effect in the next batch of polls, and I’m expecting a Con lead over 20%. The squeeze on the Libdems should also continue.

  17. C 44
    L 29
    Lib 20

  18. I think there are reasons to think that the LibDem squeeze might ease or reverse. As with the last days of Major people deserting the Government don’t always switch to the opposition.

    When it looked like a close race and who would govern was at stake both sides rallied their troops, but now that the mood is that Labour are on the way out those leaving it will spread across the parties and I suspect that the libdems will get their share.

    Last time we were in this situation the Libdems did well on the back of disgruntled Tories, this time it’s Labour deserters that may up their vote.

    Having said that with the media split between following Cameron and lambasting Brown, Clegg isn’t getting the attention the Libdems would like.

    The LibDems will lose some to the Tories and gain from Labour and so will be down but by no means out, so;

    “Go back to your constituencies and prepare for musical chairs”.

    Peter.

  19. May be interesting to reflect on the movements over a longer period.

    A year ago polls were recording

    May

    Lab 33
    Con 39
    LD 15

    and

    June

    Lab 35
    Con 37
    LD 14

    Can’t figure out why anyone thinks the Lib Dems are being particularly squeezed in 2008. They have been flat lining with Yougov for some time, but above last year’s level.

  20. YouGov figures now available.C47 L23 LD 18.

  21. 23!! can they go much lower? Tories now seriously in the mid 40’s. 24 points ahead. Where is the Oracle

  22. Peter Cairns

    I agree with you about the libdems. I was thinking the other night that, although they might do badly down south thanks to the upsurge in the Conservative vote, probably reversing seats lost at the 1997 election, they would gain a few in the north and midlands if we assume the Labour vote dips badly and the Libdems poll something like 18% or more, thus resulting in not quite the disaster it might have been. Musical chairs indeed.

  23. the labour girls were by far the best,and that is from a tory!