Comments on: So what happened to the bashful Brownites?

By: john t t

john t t — Thu, 29 May 2008 14:28:59 +0000

And will find again in 2010

I’m proud of my yellow card, so thank-you

Paradoxically, tax rises can be deflationary, depending on the sort of inflation. Cost-push (sudden increases in oil, food) inflation needn’t necessarily have a huge impact, as long as demand falls (get the bus, bake your own, etc.).

I still don’t understand how Cameron is going to include “sharing the proceeds of growth” in his embellishments (sorry, “attractive manifesto”). It means tax cuts during the good times, doesn’t it? That surely would be inflationary, as more money would be being spent chasing goods. I think he depends on people spending their extra money on charitable causes. Can’t see it myself.

By: KTL

KTL — Thu, 29 May 2008 13:55:04 +0000

John TT – that’s definitely a yellow card for a partisan comment.(Only joking)

If the Tories rout Labour in 2010, as seems likely, I’m predicting that they will be in for 2 terms at least and probably 3 because it is difficult to get back into Government when you have so many seats to win as the Tories found out recently themselves in 2005

By: john t t

john t t — Thu, 29 May 2008 13:18:32 +0000

Not very high. The last time they lost a deposit was Cheadle in 2005 (though the fall from 8.6% to 4.8% was surprising). There won’t be so much tactical voting this time – it’s a seat the Conservatives should hold with Libdem second and Labour third – I’m no Oracle, but I can’t see them going below 10% there – on a low turn-out.

As far as the next G.E. goes, complacency and arrogance are two things that Cameron should be wary of. The other is the ideological divide widening to such an extent that the “safe in our hands” mantra stops being credible.

Anyone would think that we all regret rejecting health and education vouchers, low wages, high unemployment, high interest rates. If there’s a feelgood factor in 2014 and Cameron is there, it would be because we’d know that his one term would be almost over!

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Thu, 29 May 2008 12:01:18 +0000

john tt
The electorate don’t vote for the opposition so much as vote against the government. Labour could have put up a donkey in 1997 and still won. That’s why there was so much tactical voting.Blair’s embellishments merely increased the size of the majority.Cameron will of course have to produce a manifesto that is attractive to voters but no more so than in 1951,1970 or 1979.Should be a doddle.
As for saying lets see how things develop over the next year or so whether we technically have a recession or not I don’t think Joe Public will notice the difference. There is absolutely no chance of the feelgood factor returning until at least 2011 but by the time Cameron seeks re-election in 2014 all should be nicely in sync again!!
How do you rate the chances of Labour losing their deposit in Henley?

By: john t t

john t t — Thu, 29 May 2008 10:22:51 +0000

Nbeale – the figures on Labour’s debt position have been known to the electorate for a while. The funding “problems” were well known during Brown’s honeymoon period, a period that you seem to be saying was down to the fawning media.

The media alternately fawns over and kicks all of them, depending on what makes the best narrative. It’s not your usual forensic analysis to argue that Brown’s good poll ratings were then down to a fawning media, and his poor ratings now are down to his performance.