There is also a new poll in the Independent on Sunday, this time from ComRes – their first poll since the local election. The top line voting intention, with changes from last month, are CON 43%(+3), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 19%(-1). This is the largest lead ComRes have ever shown for the Tories.

The full tables are here.


13 Responses to “ComRes -17 point Tory lead”

  1. Thanks Anthony. :)

    With each of these polls, you can just feel the screw tightning on Gordon Brown, can’t you?

    Will this be the only ComRes poll for this month? Usually we have ComeRes/Independent on the last Tuesday of the month, I think? This is the first time ComRes have polled for the Indy’s Sunday paper, I think?

  2. Weighted Moving Average 43:27:18 – CLead 17 (rounding). I think it’s only a matter of time before the WMA gets to 54:25:19 or thereabouts. Last week’s YouGov has a Retrospective error of 8.4, but the last Populus, which looked spot on vs the WMA turns out to have had a Retrospective Error of -5. So YouGov is basically ahead of the trend.

  3. I think you mean 44 25 19 not 54 .

  4. What both these weekend polls tell us is that voter intention towards the Government is hardening if anything.As prices continue to soar of food and fuel this will only exacerbate the situation.Unemployment also looks to have tuned the corner now and is on the way up.

    For the foreseeable future the Tories look to be in the mid 40s whilst Labour is in the mid 20s and barring some seismic event I think that’s the way it will stay for the forseeable future.

    The Tories will certainly win the C & N By-Election and frankly no matter what GB does now he is just marking time and hanging on until the inevitable landslide election defeat in 2010, much like Major was in 95-97.

  5. Mark: Yes 45:25:19 – sorry.

  6. Is there, or will there be, any nationwide opinion poll of what the byelection tactics have done beyond C&N? Labour’s tactics have, reportedly, firmed their core vote to some extent but have been widely criticised, often in national publications. Will we find out if this is affecting people’s views outside of that constituency?

  7. 2.7 billion and a media onslaught like no other doesn’t seem to have helped.
    I notice reports in the media suggest that the 2.7 billion will have to be met by the person who wins the next election.
    Will we see more of this? A scorched earth policy?
    Or will the failure to materially affect Labour’s ratings lead to a change of tactics?

    The tactics in Crewe are clearly a dry run for a campaign against Cameron nationally.
    The ‘foriegn nationals’ stuff is unlikely to find its way into a national campaign but the class stuff most certainly will, if its seen to work.
    I suspect Labour believe it worked in London because it was rolled out against Boris and they fared better there than in some places elsewhere.
    My guess is that it had little traction and that other factors affected the result in London. Loyality to Ken, his distinction from New Labour etc.

    If they loose Crewe badly the media narrative will be about Gordon, but behind the scenes I suspect there willl be some scratching of heads about election tactics.
    If money, media coverage and Tory attacks fail, you have to wonder where they go from there.
    I notice the media seem to be playing Crewe as one Labour ought to win but the Tories look like they may take rather than the Tories ought to win.

  8. Anthony.
    I wonder where we are with ComRes’s methodology these days?
    Being nice to the Tories again? Still unfavourable? Or evening out?

  9. CommRes tends on average to over-estimate the C Lead by 1 point, and has a Standard Deviation of 3 – so it’s the least reliable pollster. On this occasion it seems to have been true to form, and over-estimated by 1.4 points (the WMA is now a 17 pt CLead because of the latest YouGov whose fieldwork was after the ComRes poll.)

  10. The Scottish figures look absurd, but then, the Scottish subsample is ridiculously small. It’s a shame nobody treats England and Scotland separately for polling purposes.

  11. Sally C

    “other factors affected the result in London. Loyality to Ken, his distinction from New Labour etc.”

    Not being associated with a third-term government which is losing support is certainly helpful. John Major’s great achievement in very similar circumstances was to persuade people that there had been a change of management and so win an election.

    He actually once referred to the need to reverse something that had been done by “the previous government” of which of course he had been a leading member.

  12. 14 point Tory lead w/ICM, Labour onle 5 points ahead of the Lib-Dems

  13. ComRes poll for The Independent in the Crewe constituency “puts the Tories a huge THIRTEEN points ahead, the highest lead so far”