The News of the World carries a second ICM poll on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Voting intention figures, with changes from the ICM/Mail on Sunday poll in Crewe and Nantwich last week, are CON 45%(+2), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 14%(-2).

Last week there was a very large proportion of former Labour voters saying don’t know, so it will be interesting when the tables are released to see if the changes are a result of a drop in “Labour don’t knows”. The bottom line is, however, that with less than a week to go till polling day it looks almost certain that the Conservatives will finally break their 26 year failure to gain a seat at a by-election. By-election polling is tricky and polls can be wrong… but when they are it is hardly ever in favour of the Conservatives, and 8% is a decent lead.

Only 4% of people in Crewe and Nantwich said the increase in tax allowances had made them more likely to vote Labour in the by-election, with 24% saying it had made them less likely to vote Labour.

15 Responses to “ICM poll shows Tories set to gain Crewe and Nantwich”

  1. Interesting. I only just this morning put out our second forecast which had an 8.5% Conservative victory.

    Will try and do a final forecast before Thursday 10pm. Be curious to see if I can beat ICM!!!

  2. Well it looks like McCabes cynical ‘Toffs’ by-election campaign for New Labour is about to spectacularly backfire.

    [Edit – please refrain from overly politican partisan comments – AW]

  3. This poll just shows that voters are not as thick as a plank and that a few tax cuts are not going to change their minds.

  4. peter o- 8.5% is abot right but it may come down to weather the lib dem vote slumps as expected if this happens them the conservatives may come out with 10%+ one thing is clear with 2 years untill the next election anything could happen .

  5. Was Silent Hunter’s comment overly partisan? :-)

  6. Hi Stuart,

    You’re absolutely right – the one thing that is hard to predict is tactical voting. However, it is possible to look at regional trends for Lab/Lib/Con vote transfers and that’s part of our forecast.

    Still sticking with 8.5% unless we get some more info before Thursday 10pm!!!

  7. As a Voter in Crewe and Nantwich believe me it’s a lot closer than your prediction I would say the Lib Dem vote will collapse and it could go either way.

  8. I am struck by how little movement this poll shows. I seem to recal that where by-election polling is repeated it tends to show considerable movement. Have I got something wrong?

  9. I used to think that the Lib Dems were the dirty fighters in by elections. No more. The Labour campaign in Crewe has been despicable in the way it has tried to resurrect the class war. Going round dressed as toffs to get at the Tory candidate has backfired on them not least because it now emerges that the Labour candidate has a near million pound property in Wales and that on of the ‘toffs’ went to public school himself.
    The proof of this ill advised campaign will be seen on Thursday. I predict a Tory victory not just by 500 or so votes but by several thousand.

  10. Mr Keene you are wrong I am afraid the vote will be within 1,000 either way.

  11. Mr Green

    We shall see who is right on the day. If by some miracle Labour hold the seat it will raise huge question marks over the ability of the Tories to win a majority at the next general election. This is the most important by election in many a long year. The Tories cannot afford to fall short but I don’t think they will.

  12. Mr Green-

    anyone looking for a tory voctory by any chance

  13. Having been a Floating voter until 5.00pm tonight,

    I cast my vote for the Labour Party.

  14. What made your mind up?

  15. When Mr Timpson failed to show up for A newsnight special and also his performance on the Local BBC Radio Channel, Truly Awful.