Comments on: 20 point Tory lead from YouGov

By: John B Dick

John B Dick — Tue, 20 May 2008 21:12:58 +0000

There is an explanation why current Lab losses, (to Con in England) are to SNP rather than Con in Scotland.

In Westminster as a whole, or looking at England only, FPTP delivers an essentially two-party result. Considering Scottish constituencies alone, this was formerly the case too, but one party, the Conservatives, has been in unremitting decline for half a century.

More recently, the tide has turned aginst Labour too, but it is as if the Conservatives were no longer there. Their place as the alternate governing party has been taken by the SNP.

Why the ScotLibDems did not fulfill this role is something for them to ponder, but it may be that they were seen as too close to Labour; just another London-led party; a too-rural party.

Elections are lost, not won. The SNP gains are nothing to do with Alex Salmond’s charisma, a desire for independence, or Scotland’s Oil. The Conservative gains do not reflect the electorate’s desire for tax cuts and privatisation, nor are they due to Dave Cameron’s captivating charm.

They are simply the result of a generalised feeling that (to use the SNP’s slogan in another context) “It’s time.”

Time’s up for Labour. There is nothing remarkable in that. For them, or anybody, three terms is enough. Governments get tired, lose their way, lose contact with the electorate, with the real world.

By: John B Dick

John B Dick — Mon, 19 May 2008 18:27:39 +0000

Peter
“I don’t doubt that the Tories are doing better than recently and have said in the past that they could reach 20%, but I just don’t think 28% is credible”

You mean they couldn’t – from one month to the next – increase the number of people supporting them by 87% for no obvious reason? They wouldn’t need to do that for many months in a row would they. Its impossible.

By: Adrian

Adrian — Mon, 19 May 2008 15:59:51 +0000

Peter, with that youGov sample the Oracle will be predicting about 20-30 Tory seats and not just the 11 he has already predicted!!

By: Joe James Broughton

Joe James Broughton — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:44:52 +0000

The government is unquestionably in a worse position than the Tories in 1990.

It is not in as deep a hole as September 1992 to 1997.

It’s somewhere in between.
Make of that what you will.

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Mon, 19 May 2008 12:34:13 +0000

The Scottish figures seem just plain weird. I had my doubts about ComRes and with a sample of only 88 I dismissed the LibDem figure of 19%. However Yougov has results of;

Labour; 25%, Conservative; 28%, LibDem; 14%, SNP; 30%.

That would be a Tory jump of about 10% since last month, and i just don’t buy it. I am still in doubt that we are ahead of labour, but it’s believable. I don’t doubt that the Tories are doing better than recently and have said in the past that they could reach 20%, but I just don’t think 28% is credible.

The last full poll had Labour 34%, SNP 30%, Tories 17%, LibDems 14% and as here it shows Scots far more supportive of Labour and Brown that elsewhere in Britain. On these figures labour are at the same figure in Scotland as the UK in general and that just doesn’t add up with the answers for the other questions.

Peter.