Comments on: Tories surge to record lead

By: Andy D

Andy D — Sun, 11 May 2008 17:46:06 +0000

“I think we’re already at that stage _ the country wants a change and the lsbour vote surely can’t go any lower than the polls are showing at the moment.”

If Labour succeed in winning an overall majority at the next election it will be the most sensational comeback in political history. I know people will mention the Falklands War turning things around for the Conservatives in 1982-3, but that was in the first term of a Tory government.
For a such a turnaround to happen after three terms in office would be even more extraordinary, especially given that Labour were just 3% in the popular vote in 2005.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Sat, 10 May 2008 21:07:10 +0000

Although the Scottish seats are now based on the English electorate quota, the base year for that quota was 2000 and of course since then the population/electorate of England has increased quite a lot faster than Scotland, which is why there are very few Scottish seats even now with more than about 75,000 electors whereas there will be many English ones above that level when the new English boundaries come into effect. For example, I think the new Northamptonshire South seat already has more electors than any Scottish constituency.

By: KTL

KTL — Sat, 10 May 2008 21:01:17 +0000

Alex

I think we’re already at that stage _ the country wants a change and the lsbour vote surely can’t go any lower than the polls are showing at the moment.

By: Alex Richardson

Alex Richardson — Sat, 10 May 2008 16:47:28 +0000

I think we should take this poll with just a little bit of Salt. I mean yes it looks very bad for Labour and people are now starting to talk them as if we were are back in the mid 1990s in the last days of John Major’s Government but lets face it if the polls do get worse for Labour then it would not matter what they do because the people will want Labour put into opposition.

By: Chiko

Chiko — Sat, 10 May 2008 16:32:23 +0000

As much as I want to say this is AMAZING news for the Conservatives and DISASTEROUS news for Labour… haven’t we always been saying here that this sort of wild shift in opinion should be looked at with a taste of ‘rogue’ about it??? Maybe we should be a bit calmer and wait for more polls… However let’s be honest… it’s a YouGov poll and to be fair to them they have got the important ones spot-on!

By: Andy D

Andy D — Sat, 10 May 2008 09:33:28 +0000

“Im sure I recall a poll from around 1994/95 – can’t remember from whom – which had Labour support at 62% Conservative 18% -a 44 point Labour lead. Can anyone clarify ?”

See my post on the next thread, I actually refer to that very poll there.

By: KTL

KTL — Sat, 10 May 2008 08:51:53 +0000

Peter/Anthony – Thanks for the correction.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Sat, 10 May 2008 08:50:00 +0000

KTL – After devolution Scotland’s seats were reallocated using the same quota as England’s seats, so they no longer have any intrinsic over-representation. If they are still slightly over-represented compared to England (and I think they are) it’s just because of the geography of the Highlands and Islands which forces some seats with smaller population than the quota.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Sat, 10 May 2008 08:47:50 +0000

Impartial – nope, I dn’t ave any breaks beyond hte published ones. The sample size would be very small indeed anyway, so if they were separated out it wouldn’t be much use.

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Sat, 10 May 2008 07:57:29 +0000

KTL,

Scotland was over represented when it had 72 seats at Westminster, but with Devolution that has been cut back to 59, which is just about right proportionally.

Still I wouldn’t be averse to reducing the number of Scots MP’s at Westminster again, by around 59……

Peter.