When was the last time a party polled over 50%? On current trends the Tories could be over that by the end of the month, really doubtful that they could hang on to it though.

Reading the Sun article online, they also asked about voting intention if Labour had a different leader, such as Blair, Milliband, Straw etc. and surprisingly the answer was that they would be WORSE off than with Brown! That should make any potential plotter think twice. If that statistic holds then does that suggest that the electorate has just had it with Labour and no matter who they have as leader it won’t make a difference?

I think Gallup or Harris had Labour on 61% or similar at some point in 1995

If the majority of polling companies produced results like this it would probably be enough for a lot of Labour MPs to openly call for Brown to stand down, but I doubt there will be many other polls quite as bad as this for Labour.

I really think that’s the case. I said last week that, from my experience talking to people before the election, people seemed disillusioned with Labour, not just Brown in a way that they weren’t last year when it was very anti Blair, not anti Labour.

Something has happened (maybe the 10p) that has just tipped people over the edge. Plenty of people I work with (in a very Labour area) are saying they won’t vote for them again. Obviously that can change and I’m sure that it will given time but they’ve got to do something pretty spectacular to turn things round.

Basically, I think their best hope is for Boris to mess up. I don’t think he will though.

Blimey! The only downside for the Tories is that, when their lead returns to something more realistic (10-15%?), Labour will try and portray it as a slide.

I wasn’t picking up the same “get them out” feeling for Labour that I remember people having for the Tories in the 90’s, but I am now. People I know who were staunch Labour supporters a year ago are now well and truly scunnered* with the party.

There’s no way back from this, surely?

Oh, and I suggested in a rare post not so long ago that Labour’s core vote would be less than 26%. This poll, and last week’s drubbing in England & Wales, suggests 26% is a bit optimistic. I’m sure they’ll get more than that at the GE, but not much more.

Disappointing for the Lib Dems not to be picking up any of the support Labour has lost. Will that prevent any anti-labour tactical voting, I wonder…

*hacked off!

Shall we chalk this up as one for or one against The Oracle?

“The news of the petrol shortages and queues at petrol stations - even though not a government mess - they will get the blame and the POLLS will show an ***even lower POLL rating for Labour*** just prior and during the elections on 1st May”
I’d chalk that up as win, but…

“This [26%] is about as low as you will see the Labour vote drop - they have now reached rock bottom and base of their core vote - it is highly unlikely to drop any lower”
Would be a lose.

Anthony,

Was this conducted late enough to pick up the Wendy effect in Scotland. I honestly haven’t ever seen the Labour party in Scotland take the beating they have this week in all the time I have spent watching Politics, which is about thirty years.

On STV news last night they had a backdrop of a Saltire and a Union Jack with cut outs of Brown and Alexander both rotating.

Now to be honest like Jeremy Vine as a Gunfighter that’s not my idea of quality news but the fact that a mainstream evening news could lampoon both Labour leaders in Scotland like that shows how bad it is.

Peter.

Good grief! Unbelieavble! :O

It’s not even that the Conservatives have become suddenly much more electable or announced lots of fantastic, workable, popular policies over the last few months: I remember when Labour were on 61% the lib dems were much lower than now.
Could it be that the government have made a few too many mistakes? Or else “Time for a change”/”lets try the other lot” getting more and more powerful. If that were so it would be understandable, because this is almost the longest period that one party has been in power since the war - I regard the previous 18 year Conservative government as something of a special case, mostly due to the tax cuts which did much to extend its life.

With Labour support this low, could we see BNP or green MPs in the next parliament? I wouldn’t be too concerned if it were the former, because there would be a huge Conservative majority.

Beginning to look seismic.

I think Boris’s “showcase” effect will be a major factor over the next two years. He has made a brilliant start in building his team & can really show how a Conservative administration might look in practice.
If he starts to produce results he can help sustain this sort of lead in the Polls.

Anthony, looking at previous months it seems we may be due a YouGov/Sunday Times this weekend. It will be interesting to see how that pans out after todays

AS keith says it’s not that the Tories have produced some fantastic new ideas/policies. One might be tempted to think this is an example of the old adage ‘Oppositions don’t win elections, Governments lose them.’ However that doesn’t do these results justice. Perhaps it should be modified in this case to read “with bells on”?

Seriously though the results are almost equally bad for Nick Clegg. If he can’t get above 17% with the Government in this mess he must be on a hiding to nothing in the south come the GE.

What is special about these latest polls is that they are checkable against an actual election result. In London the Labour deficit was just six per cent. Odd, surely!

Now, where did I paste Michael the oracle Richardsons commenet from a December 2007, never mind, I am sure he will be on shortly to remind any of you unbelievers.
26 per cent, still not good enough for some.

No matter what way you spin it, this is a fantastic polling for the Tories. A rogue poll perhaps? We’ll have to wait and see. If this is the case, then the effect of the local election results have brought Conservative positivity and Labour negativity to new levels than seen before recently. Obviously this sharp upturn won’t hold but the locals will have a lasting impact, so we might see the Tories holding steady now, in the mid-40’s, while Labour in 24%-27% range. Got to feel sorry for the Lib Dems though.

This is embarrassing. No more to say….

Well this makes sense. Labour are totally demoralised and indeed financially bankrupt - see the lead in the FT - or indeed my blog on Monday :-). However the WMA is 43:27:18 and according to the WMA YouGov is 11 points out.

BUT there is some support for my theory that YouGov polls the net literate who are ahead of the trend of public opinion. The last big outlier from YouGov on 14/3/08 was 43:27:16 and here we are now with that as the WMA.

Have they made figures available for Scotland? It would be interesting to see whether the SNP are also getting around 49%, which would be expected if this is mainly people turning away from Labour.

Wow!

I can’t believe the Con lead is quite that big but at the moment we have to trust YouGov as being the most reliable pollster.

Where does GB go from here ?

There is certainly no way back for Labour from this point.The electorate has clearly had enough and is ready for change just like they were in the later years of the Major government.

It will be interesting to see where the next batch of floating Scottish Labour voters will go to, in the next Scottish poll, with the Alexander referendum demand and with the local elections in better perspective now. Will it all go to SNP, and will the Tories get any at all?

That Gallup poll had Labour on 23.5% (Gallup gave polls to whole numbers or halves in those days), so I think The Sun is right.

fliping hell 26pts what a change on last week if the conservatives do poll this well labour would most likely be out of power for 20 or more years fingers crossed, but this is not the end and labour could come back in two years but at the moment the con’s are on cloud nine.

A bit freakish I think.
I take the point YouGov have predicted accurately, and this is what people have said. But it’ll be an afterglow effect, rather than an eve of poll narrowing.

Very good news for the Tories though - it looks like we are building up a cushion well into the 40s to withstand the swing back to the government in a real election.

The Labour government had a pretty bad mid-term in late 1976 and the first half of 1977.
There was a famous 25% lead in November 1976 just after we went to the IMF (55-30), and some other big leads of around 20-21% around the time of disastrous County and Met County results in May 1977. (Incidentally, I found an old picture of Mrs Thatcher arriving at County Hall to congratulate Horace Cutler on winning the GLC).

But this poll tonight is perhaps more impressive for the Tories than those polls in the 70s, and the ones
which showed Labour around 40% ahead from late 1994 to 1996.
Those polls in the past which produced those huge leads were usually the Gallup Polls, and they changed their methods (incl. a move to telephone) at the end of 1996 and suddenly started producing leads of about 18%.

So 26% now could be even better for the Tories than those in 76/77.

Even more interesting times which I think is as much a consequence of hard economic times as it is of Labour mistakes and the Brown factor. Everything going up and house prices going down is going to make any government unpopular. When people realise that the Tories can’t control world oil prices, are not going to interfere with privatised utilities and won’t be able to do much on taxes without cutting public services things may be a bit different.

As for the alternative Labour leader question, I am not surprised at the responses but would hazard a guess that a new leader with an appealing public persona and hopefully an abilty to go in for a bit of confiding straight-talking would make a difference once they were in post.

Andy. Keith Jenner is probably right and you ignore momentum - there may be much worse polls for Labour but irrespective of this it appears unlikely Labour MP’s will not have the guts to ensure Brown is removed.

ZX & Gordon. Yes the Oracle has proved to be by far the most accurate forecaster on this blog over the past 6 months.

W. gear. It’s not odd (don’t just look at London Assembley results heavily influenced by the BJ Verse KL fight) but look at the LA results nationally.

David Bowtell in your dreams. What you don’t seem to realise is that so many people are increasingly remembering that Brown said so many times “no more boom and bust”, they recognise he was to a large extent responsible for our pensions crises, that he changed for the worse the system for regulating UK banks, that he sold our Gold Reserves at a loss. Most of all it is now recognised Brown has left us so vulnerable to a downturn because of the heavy government borrowing deficit which means fiscal initiatives to ease the crises are not available. A new Labour leader would have a major difficulty in distancing themselves from Brown’s horrendous record. I agree the Tories will not be able to control events but Cameron will have little difficulty in demonstating he would not repeat many of Brown’s very serious errors.

Ok, we’ve reached the stage where Mike’s predictions for Labour seem yoo generous. I for one am very afraid. :\

Things can always turn round but I’m struggling to think of something that could happen to save Labour now. Perhaps a really big scandal in the Conservative party?

Can anyone think of any other straws that I could clutch at, please?

“Brown said so many times “no more boom and bust”, ”

I always wondered what would happen when an external input to the UK economy did something unexpected. Looks like we have our answer, and it’s not pleasant.

I shall not comment on the response to the problem, other to suggest it is inadequate. I have no idea what David Cameron and his team could do better, but from this poll and others, it looks like many people are prepared to find out.

Now with this latest POLL - perhaps I will not be the target of the left leaning contributors to this site who think that I am the one who is blackening the minds of the British public to the Labour Party or the government.

As stated on numerous occasions – my predictions are based solely on my observations – it frightens me how accurate they have ALL been – lol.
So my apologies in advance to all those on here who don’t like my words in capitals of mentioning the Labour Party.

This new POLL by YouGov is certainly historical and not a surprise (only the size of it is so soon) – I did say that the gap would widen after the local elections and carry on doing so , but it’s happening even faster than I predicted.

The gap will not be the same at the general election – once again I stand by my prediction of 45% for the Tories and 26% for Labour – the Labour vote will come up slightly.

This new POLL certainly is mind boggling , a 288 seat majority – looking at the figures briefly , that would give the Tories 19 new seats in Scotland , 8 new seats in the North East of England & would see names like :-

Betty Williams , Geoff Hoon , Jack Straw , Ruth Kelly , Alun Michael , Alan Milburn , Tessa Jowell , Alistair Darling , Austin Mitchell , Frank Dobson , Patricia Hewitt , Michael Meacher & Jacqui Smith LOSING their seats.

Hope non of this sounds partisan – just stating the facts !!

Ps. Thank you to some of the latest contributors for cutting and pasting my previous predictions .

I agree with Anthony that some of this new lead gap is down to many people who do not keep up with POLLS and are’nt as aware as we all are on the POLL trends in the last 6 months - the headlines from thursday last week right through the weekend will have got to most voters in one way or another - and see that there is an alternative to the current administration and need’nt feel left with no choice for change.

If my memory serves me right - did’nt Mrs Thatcher once achieve over 50% of the ACTUAL general election vote during one of her terms in office ?

No

I don’t think the Tories will keep such a high lead, most likely falling back to about 10%. However something else is happening out there, that no one here as picked up on (to my knowledge).

The economic downturn is not the only reason people are turning against Labour, it’s also the big brother/nanny state/stealth tax scenario.

Whilst I was out on the campaign trail this came up time after time. You name it and folk were against it, bin tax/fortnightly collections, road pricing/congestion tax, parking (at work) tax, huge increase in bus and train fares, talking CCTV, huge increase in Council Tax, being told what we should eat/drink/drive etc etc…

All these issues came up on the doorstep with people telling me they had had enough. Interestingly a few told me they felt the Lib Dems would follow the same path as Labour, so this could explain why they are failling score well in the polls.

It will be interesting to see what happens in Crewe & Nantwich in a fortnights time. If the Tories fail to gain Crewe against a backdrop of the current polls, it will be quite a set back for team Cameron.

Yes its when people are hurting in their pockets as they are now that they are turning on the incumbent government.

Sure I agree that it is not all the Government’s fault but much of it is.

We have in this country

The highest fuel prices in europe
The highest interest rates in europe.
The worst Government borrowing scenario in europe and that after 10 years of economic growth.

The Government’s financial position is terrible. They must cut public spending and lower taxes and especially the tax on fuel. Some analysts are predicting oil will hit $200 a barrel which would mean 180 a litre at the pumps. That will only make the Government more unpopular plus hurting poorer people, rural people and businesses in general.

If the tory party does win the next general election it will only put the country back in the dark days of the eighties and nineties when the tories destroyed everything the people of this country had, but this time they wont have any public assets to sell, or money from oil to keep people on social security.lets hope the tories win. The poeple deserve them, they seem to have very short memeries.

The interesting thing will be that when Cameron takes power (as a labour supporter even I’m now thinking that this is when not if), how much will the current financial situation impact him.

Chances are that he’ll struggle to do much in the way of tax cuts in the first term, possibly even in a second term (which to be honest is, barring a major **** up, looking almost as inevitable as a first one). Will he then suffer because he’ll be seen to have not delivered on promises?

On a separate note with these poll results Scottish independence is suddenly looking more attractive…

Mike R - so, credit to you for predictions to date, however I have one question (which I ask out of genuine curiosity).

As well as tallying with reality I think it’s fair to say that your predictions tally with what you’d like to see happening. How were your predictions during the last couple of general elections? I’m just curious how much of your ability to successfully predict changes might be tied in with a certain sympathy/empathy for the mood of the country at a given time.

Does that makes sense?

Jon H

If DC has any sense, and I think he has, then he won’t be making any promises that he can’t deliver.Heck,
the Tories haven’t made brash promises about Tax so far and they don’t have to in order to win the election by the look of these polls
IMHO it could take 1 term just to get public spending back under control and the Government books healthy again. I don’t expect any tax cuts in the first few years of a Tory Government.

If DC is honest with the electorate about what he can deliver and delivers on it in the first term then this will be all it takes to win a 2nd term.

Oracle,
19 new seats to the Tories in Scotland? That’s just plain impossible, it’s even less credible than your previous prediction of 11 seats.
Don’t you realise the swing away from Labour benefits the SNP rather that the Tories in Scotland?

Jon H

Regarding your other comment about Scottish independence.

If Scotland were ever to go independnent then Westminster would be well and truly dominated by the Tories. Let’s be honest England is by nature a mainly Tory nation and only once or twice since World War II have Labour polled more votes than the Tories in England.

I appreciate that Wales isn’t Tory by nature but Wales doesn’t have that many seats.

So although the Tories say they don’t want the Scots to go independent and are in favour of the union it would help their position enormously in Westminster if they did.

Steve Wheeler( Lab)
Steve I am as you will have guessed a man whose political inclinations are somewhat to the right of yours so it might seem strange for me to be the oneto offer some straws for you to cling to.
They are:
1 The government is despised by voters at the moment but not hated. The last Tory administraion was hated.
2 The electoral system works in your favour. Not as much as some people think but it should protect you against a 1983 or 1997 style rout.
3 Parts of the electorate most particularily public sector workers in the North have done well out of this government. They will I think ensure that the core Labour vote does not fall below 30%.
4 You have a majority of 60 odd and 2 years of your term to run. As Harold Wilson famously said ‘ a week in politics is a long time’.
5 Tony Blair is still young enough to make a comeback… and take the lead in an invasion into Burma and/or Zimbabwe.he won 3 elections out of 3.
All is not lost. have a good weekend and get out the barbi.
Nick

Although after their success with the mayoral results I don’t want to criticise YouGov too much do just after election polls tell us anything other than people head to the winning party?

The Labour (and Portillo) rebuttal seems to be that the polls are volatile, and Labour were ahead last Summer. I’m not sure either work as an argument.

Steve Wheeler.
My respects to you for coming on here. Its hard when you fell under the kosh.

FWIW. I doubt these huge leads will last. The trouble for the Toires isnits all down hill from here. I am being alittle facetioUs but nonetheless you can imagine some parts of the media and commentariat having a go at DC if he isn’t at least 15 points ahead.
pb.com is reprting ther will be anther poll out for one of the Sundays. Not sure who its by.

My real political concern right now it that Brown will try to spend his way out of his troubles. Peter Riddell has highlighted this dangerous potential and Brown himself hinted at in subsequently on Marr when he said we could borrow more!

Yikes!

Interesting the key issue is whether it’s an outlier or ‘real’. Even if it’s an outlier it shows a trend–and the tories would much rather have that outlier the way it is than the reverse. I think it shows the SNP policy of a referendum after the next GE to be very unlikely to change. A Tory massive win in Westminster would be a monster selling point for independence in Scotland…

Cameron is already being careful not to promise what he can’t deliver and I think that will continue.

Speaking recently to a shadow cabinet member, they really do seem to be working under the assumption that if they get in in 2010 then the “cupboard will be bare”. I’d be surprised if they are able to offer much in the way of tax cuts during a first term and that seems to be how they are thinking.

Of course, that is just based on my observations and the comments of a politician, which obviously need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Brown isn’t likely to spend in such a way as to win back votes. In any event such a move would collapse the pound which would be even more damaging.

I think an election of 40/41 vs 33-35 looks quite likely now,
but things can of course change again.

Actually,
I can’t believe how many changes we have had over the last year and a bit.
I remember going to a Tory event in 2007 and it was clear that no-one wanted to stand against Ken because it was pretty much assumed that he would beat them - even if the government had a bad night in the other elections on the day.

The polls have been very bad for Labour for some months now and the local elections have confirmed that they are not out of step with the electorate - however as someone who is door knocking at the moment I don’t feel that Labour is hated. People are angry about the 10p tax bit no-one has set their dog on me yet nor do we get the 1983 refrain - “you must be joking mate”.

My crumb of comfort is that the lib dems are be byepassed at present, the shift is Labour to Conservative - I would guess by many working class voters. If the economy improves they could come straight back. The next election with be interesting to say the least (unlike the last two which were fairly dull).

The Tory lead did falter a bit around New Year, when I think they’re attempt to blame the government entirely for a badly run private bank went slightly off the boil, but
Labour has been in deep trouble since the budget - and the implementation of last year’s budget.

Colin - “He has made a brilliant start in building his team -”
Maybe, but it’s going to be interesting to see how his planning policy plays out. He’s removed the necessity for house-builders to include affordable homes, just as Brown is preparing a Queen’s speech to do the opposite.

The alcohol ban? That’ll be adhered to by me and my middle class friends, but will probably have no effect on the sort of people who drink on public transport. Brilliant? I remain to be convinced (though I admit I thought the congestion charge would last about a month when Ken introduced it!)

Let’s see the crime figures in London in a year’s time - if his policies work, fine, if not, it could backfire on Cameron.

It’s now obvious to everyone that Brown simply isn’t up to the job of being PM. See eg Phillip Stevens in today’s FT and Simon Carr today in today’s Independent. Labour morale has collapsed and the Party is also effectively bankrupt (see eg yesterday’s FT). World prices are hurting us more because of Brown’s serious mismanagement of the economy - piling up Stealth Taxes and Stealth Liabilities (PFI and Pensions)so that the £ is very weak despite the highest interest rates in the EU. I’m NOT saying these things as partisan points - though I am a Conservative I’m beginning to be worried about the future of democracy in this country. Perhaps it would be OK if Labour became the 3rd party. In the last 2 months the movements in WMA have been +4:-6:+1 so 2 more months of this and we’ll have a WMA of 47:21:20

It is interesting to observe that Brown might be considering the slash and burn strategy - making DC’s advance seem like Napoleon’s march to Moscow! This suggests that he knows he won’t recover from this situation - it’s not just the polling and the local elections or even Boris. Read Frank Field’s piece in this weeks ‘Spectator’ - it says it all.

Paul Smith’s observation on the Lib Dems is also significant - great quote from Cameron (reported by Fraser Nelson) “I have to keep scratching myself to believe that’s true but I am on my fourth Liberal leader…I count them up. Instead of counting sheep to go to sleep at night, I run through Lib Dem leaders.” Ouch! Seriously though Clegg is about as inspiring as an overcooked pudding - and he’s way more gaffe prone than Boris. ‘Calamity Clegg’ was either a knowing comment or truly prescient.

Michael Portillo was very depressed on This Week last night. He didn’t vote for Boris apparently…

This poll is so devastating, even given that the lead is probably exaggerated in the wake of last week’s local election results, that little comment is really needed.

However, in response to Mike “the oracle” Robertson, my recollection is that the only modern United Kingdom general election in which the Government got over 50% of the votes cast (and even then not by much) was the National Government landslide of 1931.

Some other thoughts while I am commenting. Firstly, when I did some political science at university I remember being told that, regardless of electoral system, a government requires something like 20% support to retain political legitimacy (e.g. in relation to East European countries, such needs for support constrained Soviet Union influence over satellite states). Over much of the United Kingdom, particularly England, Labour is reaching this floor level, with the consequence that it will just not dare implement policies. Which is not good news for those of us who love peace and democracy even if we do not like Labour.

Secondly, the Swingometer suggests that even if Labour drops to 5% of the national support, they will still get nearly 10 seats (the same is not true of the Conservatives). Given what happened in the Welsh valleys last week, I doubt whether the Swingometer remains valid in such extreme cases, although there are perhaps one or two seats in Yorkshire and Durham where Labour can still take the working class for granted because there is no alternative. The issue is whether a complete Labour wipeout is possible over the next three or four general elections.

Thirdly, it is bluntly being suggested that some middle aged Labour MPs will do anything to hold on because they have no alternative career prospects, which is hardly a recommendation of their quality. On polls anything like this one, their best chance would be to stick to the old Labour principles they presumably joined the party with and jump ship before it goes down. Thousands of ex-Labour members without political jobs to lose, indeed probably the majority of those in the Party before they made the error of electing Blair the leader and Brown his deputy, did this years ago, if for more principled reasons. What I am saying froma psephological point of view is that many sitting Labour MPs would now appear to have a better chance of re-election standing as an independent or for a new party than on any Labour ticket. Not least, one wonders whether Ken Livingstone would have got back in if he had still been an independent.

I feel a bit sorry for Gordon Brown actually - even though I shouldn’t as a Tory.
He has finally got the job he wanted but it’s going wrong for him.
I remember the 1993 period onwards when the government was just seen as stale and tired and not much you could do about it. For Labour, it seems to have arrived a bit quicker (i.e. before a fourth election). I wonder whether the transition to Major did look fresher because he was a relatively unknown figure whereas Brown so obviously is the same government.

Examining our detailed ward by ward figures from Harlow last week (where I ran the Conservative war-room), the extraordinary thing is just how vulnerable the Labour vote is. Even in wards where we did no work we got in the region of a 7 to 8% swing. Of particular interest was that in Lib Dem wards (i.e. where it was Lib Dem versus Con), most of our increase came once again from Labour voters.

I think that those on this and other forums who are suggesting that the recent YouGov polls show a much weakened Labour position because of them being right down to their core vote, may have put the finger on the pulse of what is happening out there. On the ground there is an extraordinary shift in public opinion happening, very similar to the post-1993 disaster that befell the Tories.

If the next poll… and more importantly the ones after the Crewe and Nantwich by-election can have a swing like this to the tories (even if not as bigger lead) then Labour are in serious trouble.

Especially as the news is grim over a change of leader - though I suspect the reality on that front may be different?

KTL

“If DC has any sense, and I think he has, then he won’t be making any promises that he can’t deliver. Heck, the Tories haven’t made brash promises about Tax so far and they don’t have to in order to win the election by the look of these polls”

I agree about explicit promises, however there is an implicit suggestion that people will be better off under the Tories and the public don’t really distinguish the subtleties of what was actually promised and who is actually responsible.

Maybe I’m wrong but I suspect that if they felt they weren’t better off after 5 years of a Conservative government then they’d feel wronged, regardless of the specifics of what was said.

All that said I would expect the Tories to reduce taxes and, while I don’t think they’d be reckless, I think they might take, shall we say, an optimistic view about whether or not it was prudent or not (as Brown has with spending).

I think you are right Jon H, but there is obviously another factor to take into account.

If we just assume for a moment that the Tories will win the next election (I’m not suggesting that it is definate that they will). What Cameron has to do in the first 4 years to ensure that he will get another term depends very much on what happens to Labour.

If they fall apart (or continue to fall apart) in the same way that the Tories did in the 90’s then he really won’t have to do much. However, if they can limit the damage and make themselves electable again quickly then Cameron will probably have to take a more adventurous course to stay ahead.

Recent history suggests that the former is more likely, but it may not work that way.

Do we have the actual figures yet?

I also suspect Major pulled off the trick in 1992 partly because the Tory party still seemed somewhat interesting, and people wanted to see how things went without this incredibly dominant leader who wasn’t there quite suddenly.
Brown, unfortunately for him, seems to have gone into the boring stale phase as soon as this election which never was.

Oh come on folks; let’s gett real and consider swings and roundabouts.

Long term govts. rarely hold on as we all get bored with them. In particular they lose when the ‘new’ leader GB isnt new and has been in power for the whole time. Yes, GB will lose the election -at this point in time- but Labour will appoint a new fresh face and the game recommences. And DC will get ‘tired’ and some old tories will come out and say / do stupid things and we will get tired with them after , two terms… This, I think, again proves the old adage of Govts lose elections; DC can hardly said to be winning as he doesn’t have policies, except not to wear ties (a policy I agree with)…

May I point to Australia where the old, tired Conservative party under John Howard has been totally thrown out and ‘new labour’ there holds every government, State and Federal for the first time in a million years? The highest elected Tory there is the mayor of Brisbane–not even Melbourne or Sydney.

It’s what I am saying, the electorate just gets tired, especially as the ‘ideas’ offered by a Government are nothing more than more of the same or dafter (’let’s get the police to bully the young bullies to show them that bullying is wrong’ does not seem to be the greatest policy ever to come out of Home Office.) Then the elctorate swaps over for a while…

Joe -
I agree about the “not Thatcher” vote. However, Major won that election, rather than the Tory party (a large part of which would have been not too displeased to lose it), by connecting directly with the voters.
He used a soapbox.
I’m not suggesting Brown should find a similar prop (I found it rather odd at the time), but if/when he feels there’s nothing left to lose, he surely must take up the challenge and wear his heart on his sleeve.

The dissembler side of Brown is the compromiser, the scaredy-cat that wants to appeal to the centre. His real mettle is to the left of centre, with social justice and wealth re-distribution at its core.

KTL:-
“If Scotland were ever to go independnent then Westminster would be well and truly dominated by the Tories”

Indeed-and this is the source of Labour’s panic stricken efforts to head it off.
Seems like Salmond figures a referendum in 2010 -after a Tory victory-will swing opinion in Scotland behind home rule ( to hell with being governed by Thatcher’s party)
So Wendy Alexander-presumably relying on recent polls showing no majority for independence-wants to get the Referendum out pronto & obtain a No vote, thus removing SNP’s raison d’etre.
Meanwhile poor old Gordon assumed they would all plod slowly through his Review Commission.

The big question is how a UK Prime Minister who belongs to the Conservative & Unionist Party will sort things out with an SNP administration in Scotland.

John tt-
re your doubts about Boris’s ability to stop drunken yobbery on London public transport-I note that Bob Crow -predictably-shares your view.

I am sure that Boris will stick to his guns, and try to provide whatever resource & impetus is needed to meet his pledge.
I can see him saying-if it can be done in New York, I’m f****d if Mr Crow is going to stop it happening here.

A new Tory administration is going to have major battles with some public sector unions -looks like Boris may be first over the barricades.

Jack:-

(’let’s get the police to bully the young bullies to show them that bullying is wrong’ does not seem to be the greatest policy ever to come out of Home Office.)

I rather thought it was an Essex Police initiative-though I can remember the days when Bobbies confronting trouble makers on the beat was just normal policing-now it’s an “initiative”…and welcomed with grateful thanks by the locals whose lives have been blighted by feral yobbos for too long.

It’s a bloody good idea-it’s what POlice should do-it’s what people want-and it’s only taken Labour eleven years , 12,000 useless ASBOS and other assorted pointless pieces of paper to realise it.

Colin - you say :
-I note that Bob Crow -predictably-shares your view.

I think this is the first time I’ve ever been offended by any comment on this site! Crow “Predictably” shares my view! I’m outraged!

If I thought that dinosaur union leaders would ever hold sway again, I’d go back to voting Tory!

I find your imagery a bit disturbing - tin hats all round?

People will judge issues/disputes on their merits. If rail/tube workers are forced to tackle drunken yobbery, they’ll be seen as right to want extra training, pay and other resources such as police back-up.

john-please put away your outrage.My sentence was very badly constructed.
“predictably” was meant to refer to Crow’s view that it could not be done-not that you happened to have reservations as well.

Given your description of Mr Crow as a “dinosaur” I find myself sharing your sentiments.

Let’s wait and see how the policy is to be implemented. For the moment I prefer not to believe that we must accept public drunkeness & associated violence because the problem is insoluble.

Not sure how I produce an imagery of “tin hats”-but I have no doubt that those unfortunate enough to travel the Tube every day, or live on a socially blighted housing estate would recognise it.

I hope both of these groups of people can have their lives improved.

“All guns blazing” and “over the barricades” - it’s not exactly WW1 trench warfare. Much less predictable, and I have personally faced that dilemma - do I want a knife in my face if I intervene?

An alarm button next to every carriage seat would be convenient, but it takes resources to operate and respond.

Operation Leopard sounds like a good wheeze that Boris might copy (pc’s following known miscreants around until they get the message)

My offence was not entirely serious!

“That Gallup poll had Labour on 23.5% (Gallup gave polls to whole numbers or halves in those days), so I think The Sun is right.”

I possess a Times Guide to the House of Commons 1983. On page 281, it lists a table of the polls held during the election campaign. It was an “Audience Sel” (don’t know what Sel stands for) poll conducted by telephone on 7 June, sampling 1100 people. It was C 45, All 29, Lab 23, Oth 3.
So I suspect this YouGov poll is in fact the JOINT LOWEST EVER for Labour, if the “Audience Sel” one counts. It is true that Gallup’s lowest ever was the 23.5% in December 1981 - and they have the longest history of political polling in the UK. It was a shame their contract with the Daily Telegraph ended, although I believe YouGov to be the most accurate today, which the paper now uses.
The Tories highest ever rating with Gallup was 56%, and their highest ever lead was 28% - both in May 1968.
I can strongly recommend “British Political Opinion” published by Politico’s in 2001, edited by Prof Anthony King. Gallup polls dating back to the 1930s are listed there.

Ironically, it was in fact The Sun which published that 1983 poll with Labour on 23%.

Question about the impact of this in Scotland.

Most of the day to day running of Scotland and the things that affect Scots are decided at Holyroyd, not Westminster, so then is it really fair to say that if Cameron wins then “Scotland will be governed by Thatcher’s party?” Surely not in any meaningful sense? An impending Tory landslide will make things interesting in the run up to the scheduled referendum. Alex Salmond undoubtedly follows events down south carefully and he may have already decided that Brown is dead meat and not worth dealing with, while Cameron is the coming man. He’ll also know that the best case scenario for the Tories in Scotland is to win a maximum of 4 seats, this will revive SNP taunts that they won’t have a mandate to carry out the reserved matters, while the Calman Commission is likely to recommend more powers for Holyroyd. If the polls in 2010 showed that Scots still favoured “devolution plus” over independence, then surely the smart thing for the Tories is to make a virtue out of necessity and agree to more powers for Holyroyd? This could then be put to the electorate in a 3 way referendum, independence v dev plus v status quo, Cameron may also agree to Salmond’s request that the First Minister negotiate directly with Downing Street and not have to work through the Scotland Office. Salmond would gain control over just about everything the government does in Scotland, short of independence and an increased status of the FM’s office while Cameron dodges the “you haven’t got a mandate in Scotland issue,” while the Scots Tories continue to work with the SNP government, which I think is probably their best way of achieving a recovery.

How realistic is this scenario?

the oracal made his point clear 5 weeks ago before the local elections by saying not maney councils would change hands but in the end the con’s gained 12 councils in net terms and the ld’s also gained seats, so my own prediction of 300 labour losses was very near the mark and the 230-250 seats in said the con’s would gain also came close to the mark, thelondon election was to close to say for me but boris winning was very good, the county elections next year will be very intresting and mostly more of the same melt down part two coming soon to a govenment & council near near you rated 18 adults only.

this film was rated 18 beacuse of he number of labour councilors being killed off, with a total of over 300 in net terms.

The Tories have been accused of not making ground in the North, until now (with the gain of Bury and North Tyneside councils, and some progress elsewhere in the north).

The most interesting immediate point of the YouGov/Sun poll is that the Conservatives are 19 points ahead of Labour in the North … what, therefore, are the implications of this for the Crewe & Nantwich by election?

Just leafing through my British Political Opinion to which I referred earlier - from what I can see there is just one poll - the Gallup poll conducted 10th/13th May 1968, showing a larger Conservative lead than this YouGov poll since records began. It was C 56, Lab 28, L 11, Oth 5.

Only one party in one part of the UK has had more than half the popular vote in, I think, 1952. It was in Scotland and wasn’t the Labour party. It was the Conservative (and Unionist) party. They will not in the next election gain 19 seats, nor 11 nor even 5. If they gain three they should be delighted, if they gain two they should be satisfied. I doubt if they could field 19 credible candidates now, so far has the party declined.

The fact that the SNP, not the Conservatives gets the anti-Labour vote in Scotland shows that the Conservative party isn’t gaining support, though there is no doubt that Labour is losing.

The poll shows too large and too sudden a swing to be anything but overstated, and it may be that many who have deserted Labour will not vote at all. Labour losses in Scotland will not increase the Conservative majority overall and while it is certainly bad for Labour, it doesn’t mean a Conservative landslide of the scale extrapolated from this poll.

The notion that Labour could be eliminated in England within four elections is a lot more fanciful than the Conservatives being wiped out in Scotland in one.

The Scottish voter has learned to split his vote in the SP elections, and many who would vote for other parties for the SP would support existing Labour MP’s rather than risk letting in a Conservative, though Labour gains are not to be expected.

In the past, the SNP has not done as well at Westminster as they might appear to be doing in the Scottish parliament. The are in government in Scotland thanks to PR. Both Labour and LibDem Scottish MP’s may be more entrenched than their colleagues elsewhere.

There is no doubt that Labour have lost a lot of support throught the UK, and that the SNP is doing exceptionally well in government, but for the Conservatives to win enough seats for a working majority is still a big hill to climb.

The detailed results are up. For Scotland, they are: SNP 32%, Lab 26%, Con 21%, LD 13%. According to Electoral Calculus, that would result in the following number of MPs: SNP 23, Lab 21, Con 7, LD 8. Labour casualties would include Des Browne, Alistair Darling and Jim Murphy.
I suspect the Tories must be getting more than 50% of the vote in England in this poll if they’re only getting 21% in Scotland.

john tt

“My offence was not entirely serious!”

Good!

Steve Wheeler

“Can anyone think of any other straws that I could clutch at, please”

One appears in The Times tomorrow it seems-According to Cherie, TB is “secretly” advising Gordon on how to win the next GE.

Hope this helps!

It was 1955 and 50.1% for the Scottish Tories, (although some of the seats were National Liberal according to Wikipedia). They won 36 of 71 seats.

40 years ago…

Im sure I recall a poll from around 1994/95 - can’t remember from whom - which had Labour support at 62% Conservative 18% -a 44 point Labour lead. Can anyone clarify ?

But the Scottish figures are based on a sample of 141 people and that’s probably too low to be representative so I’d take that with a pinch of salt. What’s interesting is that until now Labour have been ahead on Westminster voting intention but this poll shows the SNP comfortably ahead. Something to keep a close eye on!

Anthony, I didn’t realise that You Gov put Wales and the Midlands in as the same region, do you have any specific figures for Wales? I’m asking this because the Tories really seem to making headway there. They did well in the locals and in the 05 Assembly elections and Electoral Calculus is predicting them to make 8 gains off Labour and the LD’s with another 6 Labour seats with predicted majorities of less than 5% and therefore winnable. I think it would be interesting to track the current situation up until the GE!

The impartial observer Re Scotland.

If there is a possibility that Scotland will get more Devolution so called “Devolution Plus” then surely there is a case for reducing the amount of MPs Scotland elects to Westminster.

Scotland is overprepesented in terms of population and seats - if they are going to decide more of their own affairs is there not a case for cutting the amount of scottish mps.

Historically why is the scottish population overrepresented at Westminster? and Who has the power to change it ?

for scottish observers,the snp remind me of the new labour first term.you have snappy slogans a very charismatic leader etc.behind it they are weak and quite left wing.
we may have a mini belfast on our hands,where the conservatives and the snp(who agree on quite a few policies) work well together.the tories will need to make gains for this to happen,but that is very possible.then annabel goldie and alex s. can negotiate increased funding together,powers etc.
that will create a stable backdrop in scotland and increased power in scotland.

KTL,

Scotland was over represented when it had 72 seats at Westminster, but with Devolution that has been cut back to 59, which is just about right proportionally.

Still I wouldn’t be aver