Anthony:
When are the next UK polls? My sense is that support for Labour is in free-fall post May 1 and that their morale has collapsed, but this is anecdotal and it would be interesting to have some data.

It seems to be a pretty long honeymoon for Alec Salmond; perhaps the electorate actually agrees with him. I note the way Brown kept saying ‘British’ in his interviews on Sunday but in Scotland, Wales and NI the nationalist all have some power. Is he saying ‘British’ as the term unravels?

The fact that the Cameron effect hasn’t reached Scotland would seem to add to the idea that much of what the Tories are seeing is protest vote rather than a positive move towards Cameron.

The fact Labour’s support is falling suggests that the lack of popularity is universal, but the view on the solution isn’t so widely agreed.

Jack - In terms of a honeymoon period for Salmond, he’s doing things people support - free long term care, cheaper prescriptions and so on. It’s not clear they can afford them but populist short termism (if they can’t afford them) and a honeymoon period are different things.

I think many people in England find Brown weird but in Scotland he doesn’t seem so odd (apparently). Also people who just want to get rid of Labour have an alternative in Scotland.

Nick - the next one would be Populus tomorrow, but they may have delayed it because of the bank holiday weekend.

Two of the last three significant polls published in the last fortnight show movement very strongly in favour of Independence and the two question referendum, as of today supported by Labour, shows a very even split when polled.
Gordon Brown is not at all popular in Scotland but not quite as unpopular as he is in England.
In my opinion a referendum now would be a close run thing. With a Tory Government in London the Independence option will probably win any referendum

Jack. I don;t think the term ‘British’ has unravelled at all. The polls still suggest a moajority in favour of the union, and the maintainence of a Scottish/English/Wlesh/Irish and British identity…

Brown is saying it because he believes in it. There are certainly few votes there…

I wonder if the 14% who say they’re less likely to vote for Cameron were never going to vote Tory anyway?! Looking at Electoral Calculus’s Scottish prediction, 19-20% is a key tipping point for the Scots Tories, if they can hit that level then the predicted number of seats jumps from 2 to between 5 and 7. They seem to be steady at about 17% so they’re not far off that level. It could be as the election approaches and the Tories looked set for a big win then some people may just vote Tory as they like being on the winning team and that could tip a few more seats blue. Any gains they make will be off Labour and the LD’s. The way the SNP juggernaut is gathering pace there’s now way the Tories will take Angus and Perth and North Perthshire off the Nats, unless something dramatic happens.

The four party system in Scotland will make fascinating polling as I believe in places like Edinburgh South and Ochil, which are relatively marginal but with the Tories in 3rd place, Tory voters will forego their ‘belief’ vote for a ‘tactical’ vote to try and get rid of the Labour MP.

The Scottish Conservatives are pretty much down to their core support now. They get a couple of percentage points more in a secret ballot than they do face-to-face, but except where they are in second place, they arn’t the anti-government option of choice for disaffected Old Labour or New Labour voters unless the ex-New Labour voter is very strongly unionist. Disaffected Old Labour voters (who are much more numerous) are going to prefer the anti-nuclear SNP or (wasted vote in FPTP) Socialists.

That isn’t the fault of Cameron or Goldie. Don’t blame them. It’s because of Thatcher and the availability of the SNP.

To use the expression formerly popular in hospitals, both are doing “as well as can be expected.”

The Scottish Conservatives would quickly rehabilitate themselves after independence. They can take a less Blairite presentational stance than the UK party and at the same time avoid the rabid free marketeer and English Nationalist elements. Party funding from a dying membership would be a bigger problem for them than making progress with the electorate.

If they could rebrand under a new name which distinguished them from the other lot, they could easily find themselves in government in Scotland or at least have a lot of influence on promoting their priorities for legislation by doing deals with the SNP.

No matter how popular DC or the Tories are they are never going to win more than a handful of seats in Scotland at a GE, that’s plain to see.

If Alex S and the Scot Nats continue to poll well and be popular in Scotland that helps the Tories in a GE as it will ensure there are less Labour MPs at Westminster. In seats they cannot win maybe some Tories may vote Scot Nat to drive the Labour MPs out!

It would help the Tories even more, long term, if Scotland went independent but that’s another argument.

On a personal note I have always warmed to Alex Salmond. Although he represents something that doesn’t interest me and I can’t vote for him I have always found him genuine and likeable. It also helps that he has a sense of humour which few politicians seem to have these days.

More so then most polls, the Scottish polls are based upon a hypothetical situation. Whether heads or hearts truly guide the vote we will have to wait for the real thing.

Good luck to my Scottish cousins. Demographics are against you, so take care.

I think the interesting thing here is how well the Labour vote has held up despite all the difficulties of the last year. For sure, it is bad, but it’s not as bad as it is down south, and once the SNP bubble starts to deflate Wendy A will be a strong position than Gordon B is even if the froth comes off the Tory poll rating.

As John Dick remarks the Scottish Tories never like revealing their political affiliations to an opinion pollster but invariably exceed the forecasts at the ensuing election. 17% now may indicate 20% in the polling booth if an election were held today.
In two years time ie when we come to the next UK GE the shine may well be off the SNP but I am doubtful if the Labour party would be the beneficary. Middle class voters could in those circumstamces opt for the Tories or if unconvinced that Mr Cameron is not Mrs Thatcher in disguise vote Liberal Democrat instead.
The difficulty for Scottish opinion pollsters as I see it and indeed Welsh ones too is trying to measure the four party votes on a national scale. I wonder if they would not prosper more by a) increasing the sample base and b)from a) deduce some meaningful regional figures from sub samples. Perhaps Peter Cairns has some thoughts here as he knows more about this than I.

The best hope for the Scottish Tories is to continue to entrench in the south where they are doing relatively well - (had a good result in a council by-election in Dumfries & Galloway on Thursday). Otherwise it will be a slow process of trying to “decontaminate the brand” by, for instance, co-operating with the SNP and waiting on events.

Of course, if we do have a referendum on independence, things may start changing more rapidly. My guess is that the unionists parties will describe it as “settling the independence question for a generation” (in the expectation that they will win) and thus shooting the SNP’s fox.

I think the only way forward for the tories is a conservative-SNP ‘relationship’. Yes SNP! Conservatives would then be free to agressively persue the England and Wales electorate as it does not seem likely that they will ever even win a seat in Scotland again, this will leave Labour fighting political wars on two fronts and hopefully marginalise the Lib Dems. I know this scenario goes against the whole conservative and unionist tradition but we on the centre right need to do some radical thinking if we are really serious about getting into power again and the fact is England is traditionally a centre right country but Scotland and to a large extent Wales are left wing. The Conservatives power base is in England and they need to be able to motivate and galvanise this without thinking about how its playing in Scotland.

Given how low Labour support is at a UK level, it is obvious that getting the Scots to vote Tory is about as difficult as getting Norman Tebbit to join the Scottish Socialist Party.

There is a marked change between the Westminster figures, where Labour has a clear lead over the SNP and the Holyroyd figures where the SNP are disappearing over the hill from Labour. Is this “The Wendy Effect?” Is Alexander’s poor performance at Holyroyd dragging Labour down while for Westminster, Labour is still clear? If this pattern where to continue then could there be a bid to oust Alexander as leader?

I think there is still that element of shame up here, to admit your voting Tory until the day you finally vote, which might be skewing the polls, but to what amount, we’re not exactly sure. My prediction, when election time comes around, it will be higher than 18%, at least better than GE 2005, if the way UK momentum is going for the Tories now remains. With the Labour vote still holding up, it’s sure that the Tories could still struggle even in the few Lab-Con marginals, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any pleasant surprises for them apart from gaining in South Scotland. Edinburgh South West anyone? A long shot but possibly, in this political climate.

And whoever said the Tories could gain 11 seats is talking nonsense, when the old Tory stamping grounds of the rural North East are now SNP country. The Tories might be looking at 1-3 seat gains in the next elections.

If Scotland ever becomes independent, it would definetely be beneficial if the Scottish Tories, well, stopped calling themselves Tories, in other words have a brand new party name, without the stigma of the past(e.g the Thatcher years), and make a fresh new start, and maybe Scotland will travel more to the right, if they have the right leader at the right time.

Just my thoughts, but Wendy Alexander was a disaster waiting to happen, when she became leader. Ever since she pushed for Section 28, which was about promoting homosexuality in schools, it was greeted with harsh negativity and publicity. Since then, the public haven’t liked her. I’m certain Labour will concede a majority government to the SNP if they keep her in power. But the question is, is there anyone in a better place to replace her? That remains to be seen, and i will watch with interest on the Scottish Labour front.

What does the Tory Party offer Scotland?

Danielle:

“Unionist” relates to Ireland.

I await replies from my two Conservative MSP’s as to their views on independence, not for Scotland, but for the three Unionist parties in the Bavarian manner and also on the points you make. If I get a coherent reply I’ll post it here. I’m quite sure it’s nine years too late now, but that would have been the only thing likely to hold back the drift to independence.

It’s quite possible that Donald Dewar was not too bothered about the probability that devolution would facilitate independence. I remember his answer to a Nationalist who raised the slippery slope argument but opposed Donald’s proposals for a Home Rule Parliament on the grounds that “the good is the enemy of the best.”

That was 50 years ago, following a debate in the Glasgow Academy Debating Society. I couldn’t avoid joining the discussion. The crowd round Donald was blocking the corridor and exit.

Remember too he said later that “Scotland will be independent when people vote for it.” Can you imagine Paxman/Humphries v Blair/Howard getting that admission which was freely given by Donald? The opposite would be an admission is that Britain has no claim to a be considered a democracy.

Waterboarding? Rack and thumbscrews perhaps?

Party independence needs to be effected now anyway. If it isn’t, can you imagine the situation of the three London based parties the day after a referendum favouring independence? That would not only be bad for these parties, bad for democracy, and bad for Scotland, it would even be bad for the SNP!

Without rebranding, and independence, there is no hope of a Conservative revival. Ms Goldie is the most responsible and dignified opposition leader we have had in any party in the Scottish parliament and if even she can’t even hold on to the Conservative vote then there is no such thing as a “Cameron Effect” only a Blair/Brown effect.

The many on this site who believe that elections are always lost, never won, should not be surprised.

There is a “grim reaper” effect, however, and that’s the big thing in the Conservative vote and party membership in Scotland. Scotland needs a Centre right party, and the one nation Conservatives of Scotland, still the only party in any part of the UK to win more than half of the popular vote, have been all but destroyed by English Nationalists and Free Market fundamentalists at Westminster.

Wendy Alexander has insulted Professor Sir Kenneth Calman, double crossed the LibDems and Cons, marginalised her own MSP’s and failed to consult her London bosses who cannot possibly support her referendum plan after refusing one on the EU. A consultative referendum like the one the SNP propose, would need SNP co-operation to be added to the parliamentary timetable now, and the electorate are offended by the transparency of the tactical U-turn. It’s not that we don’t know that sort of thing goes on, but there isn’t even an attempt at a credible excuse.

The Greens, she has ignored, so I suppose she’s counting on them to feel slighted by that.

There is now much talk of the relative timing of Sir Kenneth Calman’s report (2009) The Wendy Alexander referendum (2008/9)the Westminster election of a probably Conservative Government (2010?)the Scottish Parliament election (2011)and the SNP’s referendum (2010).

One date not on that list is the 250th anniversary on Sunday 25th January 2009 of the birth of the National Poet.

Expect the Scottish Government to make much of that date.

Expect the referendum bill the following day.

Whittingham:

Section 28 it wasn’t in Scotland (Clause 2b). That’s very much old news now, the hysteria has been seen as OTT and your post says the opposite of what you mean.

A majority government is very unlikely ever for any party. The arithmetic is against it.

Scotland is extremely fortunate with two large parties, two medium size parties and one (formerly two) small parties as well as some independents. The number of possible combinations for coalition or co-operation is much better than in Austria where all that changes after an election is one fewer or one more junior minister from the minor coalition party.

After independence “New” Labour will disappear without trace. “Old” Labour will re-form with the remnants of the SSP, the Conservatives will be rehabilitated and the SNP will have the benefit and burden of being the government and try to maintain cohesion as a pragmatic centre-left party without the gimmicry, panaceas, or spin of New Labour, eventually losing some support to both left and right.

Remember that the SNP are not winning any votes except from the Greens by trickery (Alex Salmond for First Minsiter). The people to blame for independence are in order of importance Thatcher, Blair, Brown, Alexander for what they have done, and McConnel and Steven for what they failed to achieve. The only one of them who understood the situation was Jack McConnel and he did his best but it wasn’t enough.

The SNP can take none of the credit.

I take serious exception to the last sentence on John B Dick’s otherwise thoughtful post. I joined the SNP in 1959 when we were achieving less than 1% in the polls. Myself and many others have been footsoldiers now for nearly 50 years of door knocking, meetings,jumble sales, bingo seesions, raffles, leafletting and electioneering and we now are Scotland’s biggest party. The SNP take all the credit and Scotland is on anninevitable path to Independence. The timescale will dpend very much on those who refuse to see the very big writing on the wall.
There are significant numbers of Scottish Tories in favour of Independence - as therer are in the other so-called “unionist” parties.

Why should the Conservtive Popularity in England automatically transfer into Scotland? The move to greater independence for Scotland has been stimulated by the desire to get away from the dominance by the English. That would now seem to have swung too far the other way in the minds of English voters. In reality both English and Scottish voters want more independence for themselves.

The present set up is unravelling.

John Charlesworth
Exactly
It it is a perfectly normal and reasonable position for Scottish and English people to hold to, with no need for long drawn out rancour on either side.
The bad blood will probably be provided by politicians defending their own interest and setting us against each other.
As has been often stated “When Scotland regains its independence England will be rid of a surly lodger and find itself with friendly neighbour”

3 seats , 4 seats for the Tories in Scotland - ho hum , still it appears that even though i am accused of wearing “rose tinted glasses” it seems that all others are totally blinkered - i stand resolutely by my earlier prediction of 11 to 12 seat gains for the Tories in Scotland.

The thing i can agree with some about is the accuracy of the Scottish POLLS - it’s not as hard as many may think to find a Tory in Scotland - let’s just wait and see !!!

“i stand resolutely by my earlier prediction of 11 to 12 seat gains for the Tories in Scotland.”

Where? List the seats.

Things is Scotland have turned around since these polls with Wendy’s decision to not just call for the SNP government to bring forward it’s plans for a devolution referendum, but the threat to bring forward a labour bill to have an independence referendum in Holyrood.

This seems to have wrong footed everyone with the notable exception of the SNP. We can’t believe our luck. For almost two years Labour have been saying they don’t want the constitutional issue to dominate the agenda and would oppose a referendum, and now they are talking about holding one.

The Tories and LibDems, Labours partners in the Calman Commission to look at devolution are furious, and Labour MSP’s and MP’s are struggling to come to terms with the U-turn.

I think this will dominate the Scottish media for the next two weeks at least and I’d expect to see at least one fresh referendum poll for this weeks Sunday’s.

Given that this is already being used by Cameron against Brown who is having what seems now to be his habitual bad week I wouldn’t be surprised to see the numbers supporting Independence rise, although It could well focus peoples minds and send things the other way.

Either way right now it looks like there will be a Scottish referendum on Independence within the next two years. If so expect to see a renewed pressure for one on the EU possibly from Clegg and calls for an English parliament too.

Peter.

Peter:

I see that at their latest pretendy fight Tweedledum has accused Tweedledee of “losing control” of the Scottish Labour Party. Is that an admission that both of them see leadership of the Westminster party as requiring control, and perhaps the right to have control?

What does Annabel Goldie think of that?

I don’t see how a Labour referendum bill can bring about a vote all that much sooner than the SNP bill. It is bound to be contentious with amendmant after amendment especially on the wording.

The opportunities for the SNP to amend it, delay it or show up Labour as playing a cynical game are so rich they hardly need to try. The aim is to get the SNP to vote against it but that’s avoidable surely.

A lot can happen before the Labour bill gets voted on.

I can’t see the present squabble turning people away from voting for independence, quite the opposite, but if the issue dominates political debate till 2010, I think that might.

Two weeks for it to dominate the news is surely your lowest estimate, not your most likely.

This must be the best news for the SNP since the election.

If Scottish Conservatives gained even four seats, they would rightly regard that as a huge advance and party morale would be transformed. They should be more than satisfied with two.

Conservative support in Scotland has been on an unremitting downward trend for more than half a century. I recognise that sooner or later either the Conservatives must disappear entirely or they turn the corner, but that isn’t gong to happen right now, when the SNP are making all the running.

That would be amazing, and if it was going to happen there would need to be some very obvious reason. As I and others have said on this site they need rebranding as a wholly Scottish entity, and that would be only the start.

As I indicated above, it doesn’t help to have DC mocking GB for not being in “control” of the Scottish branch of his party. Though DC has a long way to go to compete with Lord Tebbit, every remark like that delivers a few more votes to the SNP.

David McEwan Hill

I’m sorry you were offended by my remarks, but I really do think the door-knocking doesn’t have much effect except perhaps on council elections. Otherwise people make their minds up on press, television and radio information, discussions with work colleagues etc and not on the doorstep.

Look at the impact this weeks news has made. That’s much more significant than interrupting peoples TV watching, domestic disputes or when they are trying to get the kids to go to bed.

As I’ve said before, I don’t want independence per se but I’ll vote for it to get better government from a parliament organised on the Founding Principles of Donald Dewar’s enlightenment Home Rule parliament.

Since we agree that independence is now inevitable then let us pray that come it may,as come it will for a’ that.

The jury is still out on the future of the Tory party in Scotland. It may vanish or it may revive and here are a few points in favour of the latter.
1 All modern functioning democracies have a moderate left of centre party and a moderate right of centre party. Currently on the right the Tories are the only game in town.
2 Once the Tories return to power at Westminster which inevitably they will and govern as I think they will more in the tradition of one nation toryism and not Thatcherism then middle class Scots may well drift back to the party.
3 The Canadian Tories were 15 years ago down to just two seats and pronounced dead and buried . They are now back in power.What goes around comes around.
4 If the SNP lose popularity and all governments do it does not follow that the Scottish Labour party will pick up votes. A swing to the right would be a natural turn of events.
5 In the meantime and since the new council electoral system came into force in May 2007 the Scottish Tories have established a reasonable local base in what might be termed favourable territory around which the activists have gathered.
You cannot count them out yet.

John B Dick wrote:

> This must be the best news for the SNP since the election.

You mean better when Salmond got elected? Better than when they went through their first 100 days without loosing a vote in the Scottish Parliament? Better than Wendygate? Better even than the budget triumph?

All this popularity, yet all the SNP has delivered is bog-standard, non-ideological ‘good governance’ (and some smaller gimmicks).

Maybe that’s all they have to do, I certainly cannot see how (barring a major own goal) their popularity could fall as long as the alternatives are the farce that is the London Labour government, Labours angry little helpers or the party of Thatcher.

Have just watched the exchanges in the Scottish Parliament [sic] and must congratulate the Mayor, Mr Salmond, for doing the right thing: sticking to the message in his manifesto! Labour are panicking and, on both sides of Coldstream, the populace can see this.

As an aside, a question for Peter Cairns. BBC HYS recently had a debate [sic] on the future of the Royal Mail. How will an independent Scotland deal with it’s responsibilities regarding universal service?

England has the demographic mass to maintain the concept within it’s borders, whilst Wales and Northern Ireland are small, compact nations. Scotland lacks neither demographics nor compactness, so will services suffer?

[Sorry to end off-topic. Just something that I believe Scots need to address when talking of independence.]

A Scottish mail will presumably be able to so under its own charter which may not even include ‘universal mial’ in the same sense. And I note ‘universal mail’ is a flexible term as even now not all Scottish islands do not get daily delivery. And it’s no worse a problem than a mail service in any small country. And with email etc snail mail is a declining issue. And with EU Scottish mail service could easily be sold to the highest bidder, such as Deutsch Post.

And for those nitpicking on the idea of Scottish nationalism you miss the point–nationalism is an emotional concept first and foremost. Then its a pride in history. Petty economics have nothing to do with it. See the Pacific island states, Andorra, Liechtenstein etc for real pinprick and proud countries.

And, if what’s left of the North Sea oil actually went to its real owners then the mail service would be outstanding…

Ireland, for example, regained independence as a totally financially bankrupt and devastated state–but it had emotion, history and heroes. And a Post Office as the core part of its modern history! This is what I mean; nationalism is a first and foremost a sense of the deep emotional reality of a country. And I think all Scots have that. Financial logic is basically irrelevant. To be honest I believe a free Scotland is just a matter of time. Why? Name what would would happen if any party up there tried to abolish the Scottish Parliament… Look at the majority up there who want, at the very least, more powers for it.

If Scotland becomes more like Ireland it looks like the Scottish Tories will be like the Labour Party in Ireland - a historical relic.

I also note that the Faroe islands are moving towards total independence; I think the Scottish economy is somewhat larger…

And I point to the ‘6 nations’ rugby as to how the vast majority really feel about the ‘UK’; we want our country to win by a zillion miles and have no interest in any other country. This is an example of the blazing emotions generated by our real nationalisms; the rest is a minor historical legal position. If Brown wants to encourage ‘Britishness’ then he should first abolish the 6 nations and the individual nations playing in soccer / football…

FluffyThoughts,

If you want your question to be taken seriously, I suggest you stop being so patronising. Scotland has a parliament and a first minister whether you like it or not.

I think it is a mistake to regard Scotland as monolithic politically. Geographically there are different trends - note the widely differing performances of SNP and Tories in NE and SW Scotland respectively. Also note that the performance of the parties have fluctuated very significantly - compare the continuing rise of the SNP with the recent decline of the LibDems which I forecast to be quite striking at the next Westminster election. This could all change again if circumstances change.

Jack
Who says it is Scotland’s oil? If the world was flat I suppose you could draw a straight out from Hadrian’s wall but it ain’t flat so the boundary could be anywhere. And who exploited the oil? Who were the venture capitalists involved? The oil belongs to the UK-not just one part of it.

I agree Nick. the Oil belongs to Shell, BP et al, not Scotland or England.

The rules for determining sovereignty over territorial waters are laid down by international law are widely known ad pretty much universally accepted.

You can have a legal debate over who has the right to drill or extract where as determined by national licensing agreements etc., but the issue of who is the rightful government to decide on those agreements is not in doubt.

It may well be shells right to extract the oil and sell it, but it will be Scotland’s right to tax it or restrict it if it is from the seabed in waters under our jurisdiction under international law.

Funny how people always start to raise the old chestnut about ownwership when they think they might lose it.

Peter.

Peter,

You are quite right about International Law rules about territorial water - The boundary runs perpendicular to the coast where the land border meets the sea. At the moment that gives a line running North east from a point north of Berwick towards Stavanger. Of course if Berwick were to be annexed by Scotland, then the boundary would head towards somewhere in Jutland.

This matters massively since, although some 90% of North Sea oil from UK waters is landed in Scotland, the share from Scottish, as opposed to English, territorial waters is much lower. It does not matter that Aberdeen is the closest landing point.

Note also that if the Shetland Islands take a different view to independance and elect to stay “British”, then the amount of “Scottish” oil really does shrink !

As you may guess, I am not in favour of independance for Scotland. However, I do recognise that it is a matter for the heart, and should not be determined by how much North Sea oil comes with the package.

Paul

A humble apology to my Scottish cousins,

Anyways….

John Charlesworth

Why should the Conservtive Popularity in England automatically transfer into Scotland?

Because a minority should never rule the majority…? I thought Apartheid was history…!

RDL

FluffyThoughts,

If you want your question to be taken seriously, I suggest you stop being so patronising. Scotland has a parliament and a first minister whether you like it or not.

RDL,

And - humbly - all my Scots’ cousins: please place everything in context. Cllr. Peter Cairn made a joke about the London Elections. [With his agreement] Everything else is light-hearted, and flavoured with jest!

Anthony, another desist…? Or does analysis still predicate?

Christian Schmidt:

You have nearly written the real referendum question, the one that people will be answering.

“Do you want bog-standard, non-ideological ‘good governance’(and some smaller gimmicks)in an independent Scotland?

or would you prefer the farce that is the London Labour government, Labours angry little helpers or the party of Thatcher?”

Nick Keene:

While I agree with your first point, I don’t see it in my lifetime (I’m 68) except under independence and/or rebranding and separation.

There is no possibility of your second point helping the Conservatives. At present, the SNP is the largest party be one MSP who should now be back from maternity leave. If Labour lost - say - 10 or 20 seats, which is possible, and even if these should all go to either the LibDems or the Conservatives, the SNP would still be the largest party and even more so.

It isn’t FPTP and the arithmetic is different. There are, or at least have been, four if not six potential coalition building parties.

The first target for the Conservatives is to replace the LibDems as a potential coalition partner of one of the two largest parties.

They could do that now or with two or three gains from Labour in coalition with the SNP if they rebranded, became independent of the UK party and exorcised Thatcher. They can’t do it with Labour because Labour would need to be independent of the UK party too and because so many MP’s on both sides of the Westminster parliament would have breakdowns and be in therapy that the parliament would cease to function.

I still rest my case that an independent Scotland is but a matter of time; look at the emotions and arguments generated here. In the c.1960s the pro-SNP were viewed as marginal loonies, now it’s in Government. It’s viewed as serious possibility to restore Scottish independence. Okay, we are the politically and poll fixated but what is here can not be boxed and put away back to the loony fringe.

This is what is with wrong with bendy Wendy’s argument–to agree to a referendum means that, even if lost, it is an issue of historic importance and so will never go away.

If the referendum is lost, the SNP would merely say the poll was a picture at one time we need another. AS they would rightly point to the historic swing from being viewed as idiots to being as serious possibility. And imagine if the referendum was lost, say 49% / 51% but SNP was restored to power… And if the referndum was won due to Scottish Labour support for allowing the referendum…

Even when Wendy loses her job I see times getting more interesting up north…

John B Dick
I am sure it is just my old age but I am not sure I entirely follow the tread of your response to my points 2-5.If you mean that middle class voters impressed by the performance of a Cameron government at Westminster will still refuse to even consider voting Tory at whatever level including Holyrood then your glass is not just half empty it is downright bereft of a single wee drop!!
I don’t actually disagree with many of the other things you say.Certainly they might prosper more if say they formed a separate but allied right of centre party as with the CSU in Bavaria.For the battered Tory party in Scotland it is a continuous process of block building. Almost snail like at times but remember from not holding one FPTP Holyrood seat in 1999 they now have four. With every realistic hope of doing better next time around.

I think it may be a bit of poison chalice if Scotland were to rush into independence. I have to wonder, the new SNP voters, from 2004 to present, who are they really voting for, Salmond or the SNP? Generally, voters don’t evaluate the workings of the party and rather the leader. Under these conditions, we can’t be too trigger-happy with a party that, without Salmond in the early 2000’s, were in the doldrums, lost momentum under Swinney? So, different leader, but same party? But fair enough, Salmond has done a miles better job as leader than the other 3.

I think 2010 is a fine enough date for the referendum, not any earlier, to be able to evaluate SNP’s performance in government better. I can only hope if independence ever does come around, that the SNP will run Scotland well, and not expose some underlying critical weakness that was there all along, perhaps concentrating too much on the event of independence rather than the aftermath and how to run it. It’s a huge task.

Whittingham,

The issue is, wouldn’t it be even more of a poision chalice to vote against independence?

Independence might not make the grass any greener, but at the moment all the alternatives look distinctively brown.

You could make the point for a centre-left social-democratic, confident Scotland, standing up for itself within the Union (i.e. bit like at the moment). But there is nobody to make that argument, the Nats obviously won’t, and the others can’t (at least at the moment).

Nick Keene:

“middle class voters impressed by the performance of a Cameron government at Westminster will still refuse to even consider voting Tory”

That has to be at the Westminster election after the next one. Scottish citizens may not be voting at all.

Would they be impressed by a Cameron government? The mountain Conservatives have to climb is the one identified by Christian “the party of Thatcher” - that’s enough, it really is. It doesn’t help that DC is apeing TB.

There are a lot of issues where the large Westminster parties aim to win over “Middle England” voters. “Middle Scotland” has different values ultimately derived from the different course of the reformation. Sometimes it means that, a policy which is attractive to middle class voters in England is repellent in Scotland.

Some people think that because of these differences Scotland should be a different country.

One Nation Conservatives under Ms Goldie could thrive in the Bavarian system. Free Market fundamentalists and English Nationalists at Westminster impede their progress. There are many in the SNP who might be sympathetic to Conservative policies, in economic matters for example.

If in the SP the Conservatives gain a FPTP seat, it may well be offset by the loss of a list seat unless the share of the vote in the region has gone up significantly. If they did the Bavarian thing, and left off actively opposing independence, they could be in government with no more MSP’s than they have at present.

There is no hope of Conservatives doing significantly better next time around. The SNP is on the way up and the former coalition on the way down. Disaffected Labour voters in Scotland are more likely to defect to the Left than the right, if not to the SNP. Many have defected to the Nationalists already.

Because there is a choice of three, maybe four, parties with the chance of election under PR there is absolutely no need for disaffected Labour voters to face up to voting for “The Party of Thatcher.” If Lab-to-Con swing goes against the grain, there may be very much less inhibition for Lab-to-SNP, especially if the SNP is doing well. That could be the big thing next time, and the Conservatives are just not involved.

Remember that Scottish Labour is Old Labour, not the urban English C2’s, whose natural home is the BNP, and who voted (via the local candidate, of course) for TB as they would on Big Brother or Pop Idol, because they were voting for a winner and perceived John Major and his successors as losers.

Conservatives could get some votes back from LibDems, if the fear of letting in the Labour candidate recedes, but if the votes “lent” to the LibDems in the Constituency were previously accompanied by a Conservative list vote, then it won’t make any difference except to turn a List MSP into a Constituency one, and perhaps lose a LibDem seat for another party

Your conceptual error is to assume that elections are “won.” It follows from that assumption that if the UK government of the day is losing support a FPTP election will appear to show that the alternate government party is gaining favour with the electorate.

It just isn’t like that in the SP election with split votes, six parties and voting against in constituencies.

Whittingham:

“who are they really voting for, Salmond or the SNP?”

Neither.

They are clearly not voting for the SNP because they are not in favour (at least not yet) of independence. Alex Salmond compares well with the current competition in either parliament, but he has been around for a while, and hasn’t, till recently, had the success which he is currently enjoying.

They are voting against New Labour.

Spin, Trident, PFI/PPP, Nuclear Power, University Fees, Dawn Raids, Targets, Foundation Hospitals, Faith Schools, Privatised rail,Donations from business, Post offices.

You can put these in three groups.

Integrity (re: Spin Gimmicry and bribery)
The Brotherhood of Man
Presbyterian Literacy

The SNP are merely a convenient vehicle. They may not know it, but they are voting for the Founding Principles of Donald Dewar’s enlightenment parliament, and the values inscribed on its mace.

SCPO (Scottish Churches Parliamentary Office)
Update with Interview: Wendy Alexander
Interview Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2007

She is committed to changing the Labour Party in Scotland, “how we are seen, how we behave, how we conduct our politics, what our policies are”.

So that’s that sorted in one week. What next?

‘Under these conditions, we can’t be too trigger-happy with a party that, without Salmond in the early 2000’s, were in the doldrums, lost momentum under Swinney?’

but I still point out that with history, that was a pause from loony fringe to government. When talking about this issue one must view, at least, the growth from nowhere 30 years ago, to now.