YouGov’s eve-of-poll figures for the London election – the only pollster to produce a true eve-of-poll effort with fieldwork within a few days of actual voting – has topline figures of JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 36%, PADDICK 13%. Minor party support is split Green 2%, BNP 2%, UKIP 1%, Alan Craig of the CPA 1% and Lindsey German of the Left List 1%.

After second preference votes have been re-allocated Boris Johnson is projected to win by 53% to 47% for Ken Livingstone. This suggests that the second preference votes have broken in favour of Ken Livingstone.

Several people including Nick Sparrow and Mike Smithson have rightly pointed out that polling figures for how second preferences split aren’t particularly useful to us because of the small sample – if you’ve only got 170 people saying their are voting for Brian Paddick, the margin of error on how they divide between Ken and Boris is huge. Still – if Boris Johnson does have a 7 point lead on first preferences, the second preferences would have to break in favour of Livingstone to an absurdly unrealistic degree for him to overcome it, given the number that are unused or given to minor candidates.

Voting intention in the assembly stands at CON 40%, LAB 33%, LDEM 14%. Others include the Greens on 4%, BNP on 3%, UKIP 2%, Christian Choice 1%, Left List 1%, Respect 1%, Abolish the Congestion Charge 1%. In an earlier YouGov poll the assembly question was asked about only the constituency vote, not the more interesting list vote. I’ve sadly no idea which these were asked about.


115 Responses to “YouGov shows Boris set to win”

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  1. Thanks Anthony,

    Prof. Thrasher [should be cast as an enemy of Spiderman] quotes 60% turn-out in Bexley and Bromley. Proves your valid point about the mayoral election…!

    But we will not know until Saturday. Will my liver survive…?

  2. I Rhodri Morgan conceding Wales…? [SkyNews now!]

  3. Birmingham LibDems: who…? Ask your local MP to name the candidates….

  4. Fluffy Thoughts (EDP)

    Have just realised what EDP stands for which explains alot. I’m watching the BBC as I think they are better but that’s a matter of opinion. If the Tories really are up 6% on 2004 I think GB will come under enormous pressure and he may not survive past the Autumn. Interesting times!

  5. David Bowtell,

    Thanks for choosing debate over fuming. If I hit the wrong buttons please ignore me.

    Can’t stand Auntie-Beeb. Any hows, predictions: I think a gain of 120 seats for the Tories will be O.K.. The question is: how many can nEU-Labour and the LibDems afford to loose…?

  6. It’s also interesting to see how the minor parties fare. Some of them might benefit from Labour voters being disillusioned, but unable to bring themselves to vote Tory.
    I see that the Tories have gained Nuneaton, but the BNP also gained two seats there for instance.

  7. Pete,

    Sky and the BBC have not called Nuneaton & Bedworth yet. Wow, bad night for Labour!

    [P.S.: BNP are simply not acceptable. No excuse!

    Oh, heck, the BBC map has just turned blue for this council, and Sky have now posted the result….]

  8. labour losing big ground in north, conservatives gaining, labour lose nuneaton and bedworth and west lindsey

  9. Sky have just published Southampton. Bad news for nEU-Labour!

  10. Vince Cable calls for Boris. [SkyNews]

  11. Southampton is best Tory result so far, Worcester the worst.

  12. As always in elections, there are surprise results in all directions (e.g. Worcester was expected to go Tory, but not Southampton).
    But overall, it looks like a good night for the Tories, with improvements even on the good results of 2004 (which apparently is the comparison year).

  13. Hazel Blears: minister, or electoral-liability…? Watch on SkyNews now!

  14. The monkey-town [Hartlepool] goes to NOC!

  15. SkyNews forecasting a 15%-swing in the Birmingham-Edgebaston parliamentary-constituency! Time for Gisella Stuart to cross the floor!

  16. [SkyNews] Conservatives gain Bury!

  17. Adam Boulton accuses a sitting Labour MP of lying, being arrogant, and treating the truth with contempt! And Minister [James] Purnell is now justifying the member’s comments…! [SkyNews: We love it!]

  18. Vote shares: Conservative 44% Lib Dems 25% Labour 24%

    (look who’s in third place!)

  19. A 20 point gap is on the scale of Major’s wipeout. It is lucky for Labour that this is such a small set of results.

    If Ken does win they may get away with this, which is a disaster, there is no other way of describing it.

  20. Keith,

    Council election and low-turnout. LibDems are not a political force yet. Sorry…!

  21. Prof. Thrasher admits that the Tories are polling well over 40%. Hum, changed his tune since last year….

    [Quote: One big party [Tories] and two little ones. Ho, hum!]

  22. Keith, so the Tories some 19% ahead. OK so its only local elections but it seems to indicate that YouGov’s polling, giving larger Tory lead is acceptable. So they could be right on the Boris issue as well

  23. SkyNews forecasting a 18%-swing in the Sefton-Centrl parliamentary-constituency! Any comments…?

  24. Sorry,

    Sefton-Central. Anthony’s new web-server is too good! Can’t post errata…. :(

  25. Fluffy

    Yes, I’m not about to predict a Libdem landslide from that. But it does indicate a government in very serious trouble. I can’t remember, but I think in the last years of the Major government, there were nights just like this for the Conservatives, and I don’t think they fell behind the libdems.

  26. Keith,

    Take all my comments with a large helping of sea-salt. LibDems have lost Liverpool to NOC, with seats going to nEU-Labour!

  27. I saw that too. Some strange voting patterns around these days.

  28. WITH HALF THE VOTES IN THE PREDICTION IS

    LAB -200 SEATS

    CON +230 SEATS

    LD +2 SEATS

    OTH -32 SEATS

    a bd night overall i’m going sleep in the next ten so it ill soon be ood niht from me.

  29. Keith,

    You watching Sky or Auntie-Beeb? Sky is fun!

    I have problems with Adam. But Prof. Thrasher is not as arrogant as he used to be…. :)

  30. Re Liverpool, it seems that the Lib Dems have regained control by signing up an ex-Labour Independent.

    Fun and games it seems.

  31. Keith Jenner

    Re: Liverpool council. Politics: why bovver…? :(

  32. That was a cunning trick!

    Apparently, lots of independents in Wales are actually Conservtaives….

    Is this some kind of clandestine manneuvre?

  33. Simpn Highes calls Boris for London! [SkyNews]

  34. Sorry, that should read:

    Simon Hughes calls Boris for London! [SkyNews]

    My Bad!

  35. Portillo also calls it for Boris. Polly Toynbee looks depressed.

    Portillo still thinks that a 20 point lead for the Tories isn’t enough. I like Portillo, but he seems unecessarily fatalistic when it comes to Tory election prospects.

  36. Both Simon Hughes and Vince Cable have appeared on SkyNews now to say Boris will win tomorrow.

  37. If a picture paints a thousand words, what would Labour and the LibDems say about Prof. Thresher’s expressions…?

  38. Gosh,

    BBC admit that projections put Labour third, behind the Tories and LibDems! Well I never….

  39. How can we relate these polls to the opinion polls?
    The BBC now projects 44:24:25 in terms of national share of the vote. Even I don’t think it’s come to that yet for Labour. But something like 44:29:20 would seem credible. What are the data on this?

  40. NBeale,

    After having a quick forty-winks I have to concur with your analysis. Labour are in no-way finished yet.

    Of concern for nEU-Labour supporters must be the [apparent] defection of those stalwarts: Auntie-Beeb and The Guardian. With friends like these….

  41. Geesh,

    Harriet Harman is calling Hastings a success for nEU-Labour. [SkyNews now.] How do the journalists keep a straight face when listening to such stuff…?

  42. NBeale

    We have to say that YouGov’s recent polling appears pretty accurate.

    BBC say share of the vote last night is C 44 L 24 LD 25.

    Hard to believe but that’s what happened.

  43. where is ‘The Oracle’ to brighten your day up when you need him?

  44. In view of these results – Wll GB still be in charge of Labour at the next GE?

    There are already murmerings in the Labour party and these will be amplified after last night but will anybody have the guts to mount a leadership challenge. ?

  45. Re London Mayor elections – it will be a huge shock if Boris isn’t declared the winner.

    I’ll say this though – if Ken had stood as an Independent rather than a Labour candidate I think he would have won.

    That politics for you.

  46. Fluffy – I don’t think Labour have lost the support of the Guardian. They have been as reliably anti-Boris Johnson in the last few weeks as the Standard have been anti-Ken, and I’m not think anyone would have had the Standard down as a neutral party.

    (And can you stop calling them nEU-Labour. Something tells me it isn’t a term of endearment when you use it, so it doesn’t really add to non-pastisan discussion does it?)

  47. well since last night things have not changed much at all after around 68% of councils reporting the conservatives look like gaining around 230-235 seats, labour look like losing around 260 seats and the lib dems could gain 15-20 seats, from what i understand the ld vote went up slightly in coventry stoping the conservatives from holding the council,even so some of the wards were only Con by 200 or 300 votes, nuneaton and bedworth was clearly going to be a con gain, bury was close and it could have gone the other way, now just wating for the remaining results from councils in wales

  48. Anthony:
    The Guardian have thrown the kitchen sink at Boris “Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid” “bigoted, lying, Old Etonian buffoon” etc.. Whereas the Evening Standard at least had specific stories about Ken’s abuses.

    I still want to know whether you have any views on how to map Local Election results into National Polls?

  49. NBeale – my sage advice is, don’t. See these wise, but far lengthier, words by Danny Finkelstein here.

  50. Daily Politics says that with 20% votes counted in 14 constituencies Boris ahead in 10, Ken ahead in 4.

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