YouGov’s eve-of-poll figures for the London election – the only pollster to produce a true eve-of-poll effort with fieldwork within a few days of actual voting – has topline figures of JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 36%, PADDICK 13%. Minor party support is split Green 2%, BNP 2%, UKIP 1%, Alan Craig of the CPA 1% and Lindsey German of the Left List 1%.

After second preference votes have been re-allocated Boris Johnson is projected to win by 53% to 47% for Ken Livingstone. This suggests that the second preference votes have broken in favour of Ken Livingstone.

Several people including Nick Sparrow and Mike Smithson have rightly pointed out that polling figures for how second preferences split aren’t particularly useful to us because of the small sample – if you’ve only got 170 people saying their are voting for Brian Paddick, the margin of error on how they divide between Ken and Boris is huge. Still – if Boris Johnson does have a 7 point lead on first preferences, the second preferences would have to break in favour of Livingstone to an absurdly unrealistic degree for him to overcome it, given the number that are unused or given to minor candidates.

Voting intention in the assembly stands at CON 40%, LAB 33%, LDEM 14%. Others include the Greens on 4%, BNP on 3%, UKIP 2%, Christian Choice 1%, Left List 1%, Respect 1%, Abolish the Congestion Charge 1%. In an earlier YouGov poll the assembly question was asked about only the constituency vote, not the more interesting list vote. I’ve sadly no idea which these were asked about.


115 Responses to “YouGov shows Boris set to win”

1 2 3
  1. I am so looking forward to YouGov being able to say I told you so…

  2. Anthony. Are you able to explain the discrepancy between Labour losses ,as shown by BBC and Sky(c.60seats)-a large percentage difference?

  3. The BBC website is saying Boris ahead, turnout 45%, full results by 2030 or so.

  4. Collin
    Simple arithmetic, BBC treated all seats in new LA as gains.

  5. May be midnight or after now before result. There were terrible problems with the counting machines in 2000. Looks like over an 8 year period nothing has been learnt.

  6. Which company is it that has provided the machines? Neil Kinnock’s DRS?

  7. Fluffy Thoughts (EDP)

    Glad to see you have had the time to comment endlessly while many of us have been at work. In the spirit of reasonable debate I really think you have seriously wasted your time such are the lamentable quality of your contributions.

    I don’t thing your belong on this board and I suggest you search ‘Tory Blogs’ where I’m sure you’ll find somewhere to say what you like, when you like and how you like.

    Meanwhile back in the real world of the opinion polls, the real polls and real politics I’d like to see a poll of Labour MPs to see how many think that labour can never win whilst GB is still PM.

    Looking at basic, down-to-earth policies, and as a Labour supporter (definitely not a GB supporter) I think a reduction of VAT to 15% paired with income tax at 50% for earnings over £150,000 would reassure core Labour voters and give most other voters something to feel good about. And where’s the money coming from……….well some from the 50% income tax and the rest from the growth in VAT revenues generally as the costs of VAT qwualifying goodss and products (such as fuel) rise

  8. Peter Kellner to resign as head of YouGov if Boris fails to win.

  9. David B:
    Are you are good at economics as you are at spelling?
    Is there any polling evidence that your suggestions are popular?
    Fluffy admits (s)he is fluffy but her(?) contributions are quite fun. I can see that Lab supporters are not very happy today – but lighten up. It’s bad for democracy for one party to be in power for too long. Cameron is fundamentally nice and decent, and so are almost all his colleagues. Even I will admit that GB is sincere in his belief the He is the Right PM and genuinely wants to Do Good. I just wish that the culture of arrogant lies hadn’t taken hold, but that is partly to do with being in power for too long.

  10. N Beale

    Apologies for the typos which I hope didn’t detract too much from the sense of what I was saying. One of the nice things about a democratic and fairly individualistic society is the variety of views people have and express and whilst I think I’ve got a perfectly reasonable sense of humour I simply don’t find Fluffy’s comments of any value on this board.

    As for evidence about the tax changes I suggest, I’m not in a position to commission a poll but I believe a VAT cut would be popular whilst a tax increase for earnings over £150,000 would no doubt bring howls of disapproval from so called opinion formers and other relatively rich people.

    I’ve no idea how old you are but if you were politically aware in in 1989 were you saying the same about the Tories being in power for too long? On the matter of Cameron being a decent chap, well I just don’t agree and I don’t think that someone with his background has the hinterland to govern effectively; I didn’t particularly like Thatcher or Heath but at least they had some experience of a more ordinary lifestyle. On the matter of GB, I’m afraid that the years of plotting and planning to get the top job has warped his judgement on top of which his public persona isn’t particularly attractive whatever his private persona might be.

  11. First Seat is Tory. Absolute Majority Loss of support from UKIP and Lib Dems. Labour Stable.

    This could be interesting

  12. If anyone is here, I’ve just had a quick (and possibly not accurate) count up of the first preference votes from the individual areas and think it is:

    Johnson 43.2%
    Livingstone 37%

  13. Fluffy Thoughts (EDP)
    David Botwell,

    Glad to see you have had the time to comment endlessly while many of us have been at work. In the spirit of reasonable debate I really think you have seriously wasted your time such are the lamentable quality of your contributions.

    [You hate commentary? Why…?]

    I don’t thing your belong on this board and I suggest you search ‘Tory Blogs’ where I’m sure you’ll find somewhere to say what you like, when you like and how you like.

    [Where you at Anthony’s wedding party as well…?]

    Anthony set the rules, and I explained my purpose on Thursday night/Friday morning. By the way, who are you…? And please use FireFox, as it may improve your ability to send a cogent message…!

    If your a number-cruncher realise this: we come here to debate (however badly). When we are upset/wrong, we withdraw, to reflect. I suggest you do the same – unless you are Anthony boss.

    Anthony,

    And can you stop calling them nEU-Labour. Something tells me it isn’t a term of endearment when you use it, so it doesn’t really add to non-pa{s|[r]}tisan discussion does it?

    Point taken: my bad. Will desist. Party allegiances sometime get the better! [Tell D.B. I am not a Tory (anymore :) ). E.D.P. have their own agenda. Just like D.B….!]

  14. David/Anthony,

    My bad: should read “If you’re a number-cruncher…”. Ok, FireFox does have some limitations…! ;)

  15. David Bowtell said:

    N Beale

    Apologies for the typos which I hope didn’t detract too much from the sense of what I was saying.

    Sorry, missed your apology….

    As for evidence about the tax changes I suggest, I’m not in a position to commission a poll but I believe a VAT cut would be popular….

    Geesh, Labour have refused a ban on the EU-Constitutional Referendum! Do you really think they would allow a vote on V.A.T. (which is a EU-tax)? I may be a nuisance, but I do try to keep in touch with reality…? :(

1 2 3