I didnt take part in this poll but the list of parties suggests the Assembly question asked about the list rather than the constituency contest.

Well, good luck Anthony. The debate between the pollsters after this will be interesting…

if boris wins tonight labour may not be electable in two years time, as the message will be that gordon s week and davied is ready for power

Anthony,

Are you able to comment at all on how PB managed to get the figures the day before?

Whilst I am a big Boris supporter, I still do have some respect for Ken Livingstone when it comes to the congestion charge and other flagship policies.

I think the best explanation for Ken, if he does lose, would be to look at Peter Brookes cartoon in The Times today. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/

As I say I do have a lot of respect for a politician like Ken Livingstone and it is a shame that he will not have lost this election, Gordon will have lost it for him!

I suspect that if Boris wins then, combined with the Local results, this will have such a negative psychological effect on Labour that they will be looking at a hung Parliament at best in 2 years, unless either Johnson or Cameron do something stupid before the election (maybe quite likely with Boris).

Reports from Westminster seems to be that many Labour MP’s are starting the “maybe we need a period in opposition” talk that was so damaging to the Tories in their last government.

If Livingstone can pull it out of the fire then maybe it will be the springboard for them to turn things around and a small majority in 2010 will be possible.

Regarding the poll, I think it all depends on how many people bottle out of voting for Boris when it comes to the crunch, in the same way that seemed to happen to Labour in 1992. That would appear to be the thing that will swing it in the end.

What’s interesting is that nearly all the polls agree the winning and losing shares of the top 2 candidates are going to be quite high even on the first vote.
In 2004, it was about 35.8pc to 28.5pc with lots of “others”.
But this poll predicts Ken in second place but with the same 2004 share of the vote on round 1.
Paddick doesn’t seem to be doing spectacularly badly - it just seems the others are lower in this tight fight.

With regard to who wins this may I note that neither party should be happy as really both Ken and Boris are larger than life characters who are bigger than their party membership. They happen to be members of a party but that is not what defines them. I would suggest that many people will vote for the characters of Ken or Boris, not for their party membership.

I forget which pollster said it of the USA presidents but he argued that the winner is always the one the electorate wants to have round for a BBQ and I think this is the case in the little Presidency which is the Mayor of London. Sure, party membership will play a part for some today, but I would argue the deciding (swinging) voters are less party based, more barbeque based seat of the pants.

Hence my point that for accurate indications of how the voters are thinking then the various council results are fine, but the Mayoral race has significant other factors attached to it.

I join Lukw in wishing good luck to you all at YouGov Anthony.

May the best man win!

The Greens, BNP and UKIP are all much lower than 2004, when they took 12% between them. This poll shows them on just 5%.

Jack, whilst not disagreeing with with what you say, I don’t think that will help Labour if they lose. The effect of losing both Scotland and London will be significant, even if people appreciate that there is a big personality factor in play.

Incidently, whilst the poll suggests Livingstone has a very similar proportion of the first preference vote this year (36% compared to 35.7% in 2004), the conservative share was only 28.2% last year compared to a suggested 43% this time. Surely, that is significant as there are lots of questions about Boris. Not living in London, I can’t really recall what the reaction to Steven Norris was, but surely he was no worse a candidate than Boris was he?

Going by that thinking, the Conservatives will have plenty to take out of today if Boris can win, on top of just showing that they are electable in big areas again.

Here’s hoping that the polls are right. Of course Boris is not the best Tory for the job, but to see Ken get ousted (on International Workers Day!!!) would be the most perfect start to a Bank Holiday Week-End!

I saw a picture earlier of Gordon and Sarah Brown going out to vote. Could I ask why? I thought they would be registered in Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath or can they just change it for the intermittent years and then re-register in Scotland ready for a GE.

Adrian: You can be registered to vote in local elections at more than one address. But for general and european elections you can only vote in one place.

Simon, thanks for that. So at local elections does it have to be a permanent building or do those Lodges and Static caravans count. Mind you, some sites close for 6 weeks to prevent them being ‘residential’. Just wondering thats all.

I understand that the actual result won’t be out till tomoorow. Will the news channels be putting out exit polls after voting ends tonight?

Personally I think people should have only one vote, including in local elections. It sounds like some students are voting twice in local elections: once where their university/college is and a second time by postal vote in the place they used to live in.

OK the Weighted Moving Average says 43:39:12 - we’ll see what happens tomorrow and this will be a good test of YouGov and the WMA approach. The retrospectives show the last Ipsos/Mori Unison poll as out by 7.2 and as noted earlier I think the framing error in their question is very bad (I’m amazed they are allowed to do this within the guidelines).

Impartial - I haven’t heard anything about any exit polls and I suspect if there was one either Mike or I would have heard something. My guess is no.

Abdy- Yes, suudents often vote twice. I did it myself in the 2005 GE, for different parties. It was quite liberating being a plural voter.

Who would benefit from people voting twice? I assume that students would tend to favour LibDems and Labour. Is there any stats to confirm this? Twice in locals I could reason BUT twice in a GE should surely be wrong

Anthony,

The rumour has it that ITN are doing one.

Adrian, Students (and anyone) can vote locally whereveer there are registered, but my understanding is that is a illegal to vote twice in a national election is GE or Euro. The Electoral Commission website also confirms this.

” It sounds like some students are voting twice in local elections: once where their university/college is and a second time by postal vote in the place they used to live in.”

I would question that wisdom. Most students I know can’t even be bothered to fill in the electoral registration form, let alone order a postal vote, fill it in, and send it during exam time. Heck, when I registered my flatmates they didn’t even bother to thank me by accompanying me to the polling booth and using their vote.

As a true YouGovian (or YouGovan for our Scottish participants) I have backed this honourable estate and placed my mayorial vote for Boris. All other preferences went - unsurprisingly - to th English Democrats.

Have only nine cans of Scrumpy Jack. Hopefully Ken will be gone before my liver…!

Jon White

Many thanks for your neutral, non partisan words. This is the sort of comment which shouldn’t be appearing on this board, Anthony.

Steven Norris Who? Versus Boris?–was this really a serious comparison? Sorry, Boris appeals across party as does Ken. Steven Norris was a nobody, but thought to be somebody by the Conservative party. That’s why the Tories were losing then.

I restate my view; you need larger than life people to win Mayor; Steven Norris is at best a mere footnote in history. Both Ken and Boris would rate a pargrpah in the mainstream.

And I’d happily have both at my BBQ, Ken Norris I wouldnt know from a bargepole..

Ralph - presumably not, since I guess we’d have had it as a 10 o’clock headline.

Mr Bowtell,

Please, it’s election night. Can we not let our collective (that word sends a shiver) hair down and act like - heck - childish politicians…? Gosh, it is all about proof and pudding tonight!

Anthony runs this blog. When he calls “enough is enough” then we should all take stock. ‘Til then, lets be liberal with the guidelines…!

Well thats it! Time to hold on to your seats folks… (if you’ll pardon the pun) ….

Whilst we await 10:30, an aside. Has anyone seen tomorrows The Economist front-page? I think it looks pretty cool! [:off-topic]

I wonder how widespread electoral fraud will be this time? (in the country-wide elections, as well as London).

It begs the question - how can pollsters possibly allow for this? I suppose you could get details of all the cases that reach court - how many votes were involved, and for which party - and then factor that in as a percentage of total votes.

You’d also have to make a guess at what percentage of cases reach court. My guess would be one in 10 at best.

Would you also have to allow for the area where seats were? For instance, from memory, most of the cases I have heard of have been in inner-city areas. It is also an unfortunate fact that the majority, if not all, of the cases have been perpetrated by members of the Asian community. Could a pollster take this into account in any way?

I’m surprised that none of the political parties seem to have made much of an issue of this, beyond expelling those found guilty.

I’d be most interested in your take on the fraud issue, and how it could be accounted for (if at all) by pollsters.
If it can’t be done, then surely polls will gradually become less accurate as the practice spreads. Unless, I suppose, some poll respondents say things like “I will vote for Ken 250 times!”

Pete Banks,

Have you seen the front-page of Friday’s Gruaniad? Rats and sinking-ships come to mind…!

Fluffy,

I try to avoid reading deluded drivel. I’ve had a quick look at their website and can’t immediately see anything that relates to your comment. Do tell.

Fluffy - I would much rather you all policed yourselves so I didn’t have to tell anyone off!

[Corrected unfortunate grammar failure!]

Anthony Wells

Fluffy - I would much rather you all policed themselves I didn’t have to tell anyone off.

Fair cop guv. Please rephrase in English. [O.K., I know it’s late!]

Fluffy,

Are you suggesting that the Guardian will abandon the Labour party if they lose the Mayoral and local elections? The Guardian who supported them through the 80s where not only were they not in power but essentially unelectable.

One day someone is going to need to explain to you about principals…

BTW, does EDP stand for English Democratic Party? I’m just trying to work out how seriously to take you…

Sorry Pete,

Noticed Anthony’s response before yours. Sky are showing the front-pages on their website. [SkyNews.com]

The left-column leader reads: Election Fraud: Labour failed to act says MPs. Hope this clarifies my earlier statement.

Jon H,

I’d be more worried if you did take me seriously. Then again, compared to Gordon Brown, no contest…!

Happy election night. Hope you will keep up with me.

It must be a rubbish night to be a journalist. You have the choice of either ignoring the biggest thing that’s happening (less of an issue if you write for, say, the Express where you’ve made a career out of ignoring news stories in favour of writing about Diana), or risking making an arse out of yourself.

Fluffy, I can’t dispute that on current PM performance Gordon Brown warrants less serious consideration than I’d like. From my perspective right now politics is about the least bad option - and the London Mayoral race is that in a microcosm.

MP for Bury North thinks that a low turn-out is good for Labour. Surely this turns political punditry on it’s head…?

[As seen, now, on Sky News.]

Fluffy - won’t a low turn out be good for Labour because it throws the whole thing open to a bit of random chance? On a high turn out the polls are more likely to be bang on and they’ll be slaughtered.

I suppose his reasoning might be that a high turnout would mean that the anti-Labour vote had mobilised in force, and that a low turnout would be more likely to keep the status quo? i.e. it would be ‘less bad’ rather than ‘good’.

Jon H,

Legacy punditry would suggest Labour voters don’t turn out. Hence my comment.

Tories (and English Democrats) will always vote. Young Master Alexander is banking on a good turn-out in London to re-elect Red-Ken! [But then, considering his sister’s finances….]

Fluffy,
It’s certainly supposed to be true that a high turnout favours the Tories in General Elections, but there are many rock-solid Labour wards which always have a turnout of 20-30% at local level. If they suddenly had a huge jump in turnout, wouldn’t the extra votes be likely to be for other parties, because Labour have done nothing to enthuse the electorate recently?

Pete,

Have to disagree. Your analysis is back-to-front.

Tories (especially pensioners) always turn out to vote. Casual (Labour) voters vote depending on the weather. [Total simplification, but heck!]

I would be interested if you could supply any evidence otherwise. Anthony, if still alert, could you assist in this particular discussion…?

Fluffy Thoughts (EDP)

I’ve no problem with a bit of banter in the right place but the odd snide comment in parenthesis is fairly unedifying stuff on any night.

David Botwell,

Sorry I have rattled you. I should not, but have a silly habit of doing so.

If you have read my posts, you will understand my stand-points. One bug-bear though: which snide comments (in parenthesis)?

I am happily watching SkyNews - Adam Boulton gets my goat - and am trying to have a discussion on the on-going results. As Anthony allows ourselves to be self-governed it is up to you to respond or ignore. I hope you respond, as it is better to debate then to fume.

Fluffy,
If you reread my post, you’ll see that I was just trying to see what the Bury councillor’s reasoning might have been, rather than expressing my own views. I have no more evidence for this theory than you have for yours.
Anyway, I’d be more interested in what you (or anyone else - especially Anthony) thinks about my original question about the extent of electoral fraud, and how pollsters can allow for it, if at all.

Perceived wisdom is that low turnout helps the Conservatives - I think this is largely based on polling evidence where Labour supporters *say* they are less likely to vote. Whether this is reflected in reality is a different matter.

In practice I think it can vary. In previous London elections a big problem for Steve Norris was a lower turnout in the outer London areas than the party hoped for - presumably because people out on the fringes of Greater London didn’t really identify with the office of mayor. If Boris can reverse that, then high turnout would be good for the Tories.

Thanks Anthony,

Prof. Thrasher [should be cast as an enemy of Spiderman] quotes 60% turn-out in Bexley and Bromley. Proves your valid point about the mayoral election…!

But we will not know until Saturday. Will my liver survive…?

I Rhodri Morgan conceding Wales…? [SkyNews now!]

Birmingham LibDems: who…? Ask your local MP to name the candidates….

Fluffy Thoughts (EDP)

Have just realised what EDP stands for which explains alot. I’m watching the BBC as I think they are better but that’s a matter of opinion. If the Tories really are up 6% on 2004 I think GB will come under enormous pressure and he may not survive past the Autumn. Interesting times!

David Bowtell,

Thanks for choosing debate over fuming. If I hit the wrong buttons please ignore me.

Can’t stand Auntie-Beeb. Any hows, predictions: I think a gain of 120 seats for the Tories will be O.K.. The question is: how many can nEU-Labour and the LibDems afford to loose…?

It’s also interesting to see how the minor parties fare. Some of them might benefit from Labour voters being disillusioned, but unable to bring themselves to vote Tory.
I see that the Tories have gained Nuneaton, but the BNP also gained two seats there for instance.

Pete,

Sky and the BBC have not called Nuneaton & Bedworth yet. Wow, bad night for Labour!

[P.S.: BNP are simply not acceptable. No excuse!

Oh, heck, the BBC map has just turned blue for this council, and Sky have now posted the result….]

labour losing big ground in north, conservatives gaining, labour lose nuneaton and bedworth and west lindsey

Sky have just published Southampton. Bad news for nEU-Labour!

Vince Cable calls for Boris. [SkyNews]

Southampton is best Tory result so far, Worcester the worst.

As always in elections, there are surprise results in all directions (e.g. Worcester was expected to go Tory, but not Southampton).
But overall, it looks like a good night for the Tories, with improvements even on the good results of 2004 (which apparently is the comparison year).

Hazel Blears: minister, or electoral-liability…? Watch on SkyNews now!

The monkey-town [Hartlepool] goes to NOC!

SkyNews forecasting a 15%-swing in the Birmingham-Edgebaston parliamentary-constituency! Time for Gisella Stuart to cross the floor!

[SkyNews] Conservatives gain Bury!

Adam Boulton accuses a sitting Labour MP of lying, being arrogant, and treating the truth with contempt! And Minister [James] Purnell is now justifying the member’s comments…! [SkyNews: We love it!]

Vote shares: Conservative 44% Lib Dems 25% Labour 24%

(look who’s in third place!)

A 20 point gap is on the scale of Major’s wipeout. It is lucky for Labour that this is such a small set of results.

If Ken does win they may get away with this, which is a disaster, there is no other way of describing it.

Keith,

Council election and low-turnout. LibDems are not a political force yet. Sorry…!

Prof. Thrasher admits that the Tories are polling well over 40%. Hum, changed his tune since last year….

[Quote: One big party [Tories] and two little ones. Ho, hum!]

Keith, so the Tories some 19% ahead. OK so its only local elections but it seems to indicate that YouGov’s polling, giving larger Tory lead is acceptable. So they could be right on the Boris issue as well

SkyNews forecasting a 18%-swing in the Sefton-Centrl parliamentary-constituency! Any comments…?

Sorry,

Sefton-Central. Anthony’s new web-server is too good! Can’t post errata….

Fluffy

Yes, I’m not about to predict a Libdem landslide from that. But it does indicate a government in very serious trouble. I can’t remember, but I think in the last years of the Major government, there were nights just like this for the Conservatives, and I don’t think they fell behind the libdems.

Keith,

Take all my comments with a large helping of sea-salt. LibDems have lost Liverpool to NOC, with seats going to nEU-Labour!

I saw that too. Some strange voting patterns around these days.

WITH HALF THE VOTES IN THE PREDICTION IS

LAB -200 SEATS

CON +230 SEATS

LD +2 SEATS

OTH -32 SEATS

a bd night overall i’m going sleep in the next ten so it ill soon be ood niht from me.

Keith,

You watching Sky or Auntie-Beeb? Sky is fun!

I have problems with Adam. But Prof. Thrasher is not as arrogant as he used to be….

Re Liverpool, it seems that the Lib Dems have regained control by signing up an ex-Labour Independent.

Fun and games it seems.

Keith Jenner

Re: Liverpool council. Politics: why bovver…?

That was a cunning trick!

Apparently, lots of independents in Wales are actually Conservtaives….

Is this some kind of clandestine manneuvre?

Simpn Highes calls Boris for London! [SkyNews]

Sorry, that should read:

Simon Hughes calls Boris for London! [SkyNews]

My Bad!

Portillo also calls it for Boris. Polly Toynbee looks depressed.

Portillo still thinks that a 20 point lead for the Tories isn’t enough. I like Portillo, but he seems unecessarily fatalistic when it comes to Tory election prospects.

Both Simon Hughes and Vince Cable have appeared on SkyNews now to say Boris will win tomorrow.

If a picture paints a thousand words, what would Labour and the LibDems say about Prof. Thresher’s expressions…?

Gosh,

BBC admit that projections put Labour third, behind the Tories and LibDems! Well I never….

How can we relate these polls to the opinion polls?
The BBC now projects 44:24:25 in terms of national share of the vote. Even I don’t think it’s come to that yet for Labour. But something like 44:29:20 would seem credible. What are the data on this?

NBeale,

After having a quick forty-winks I have to concur with your analysis. Labour are in no-way finished yet.

Of concern for nEU-Labour supporters must be the [apparent] defection of those stalwarts: Auntie-Beeb and The Guardian. With friends like these….

Geesh,

Harriet Harman is calling Hastings a success for nEU-Labour. [SkyNews now.] How do the journalists keep a straight face when listening to such stuff…?

NBeale

We have to say that YouGov’s recent polling appears pretty accurate.

BBC say share of the vote last night is C 44 L 24 LD 25.

Hard to believe but that’s what happened.

where is ‘The Oracle’ to brighten your day up when you need him?

In view of these results - Wll GB still be in charge of Labour at the next GE?

There are already murmerings in the Labour party and these will be amplified after last night but will anybody have the guts to mount a leadership challenge. ?

Re London Mayor elections - it will be a huge shock if Boris isn’t declared the winner.

I’ll say this though - if Ken had stood as an Independent rather than a Labour candidate I think he would have won.

That politics for you.

Fluffy - I don’t think Labour have lost the support of the Guardian. They have been as reliably anti-Boris Johnson in the last few weeks as the Standard have been anti-Ken, and I’m not think anyone would have had the Standard down as a neutral party.

(And can you stop calling them nEU-Labour. Something tells me it isn’t a term of endearment when you use it, so it doesn’t really add to non-pastisan discussion does it?)

well since last night things have not changed much at all after around 68% of councils reporting the conservatives look like gaining around 230-235 seats, labour look like losing around 260 seats and the lib dems could gain 15-20 seats, from what i understand the ld vote went up slightly in coventry stoping the conservatives from holding the council,even so some of the wards were only Con by 200 or 300 votes, nuneaton and bedworth was clearly going to be a con gain, bury was close and it could have gone the other way, now just wating for the remaining results from councils in wales

Anthony:
The Guardian have thrown the kitchen sink at Boris “Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid” “bigoted, lying, Old Etonian buffoon” etc.. Whereas the Evening Standard at least had specific stories about Ken’s abuses.

I still want to know whether you have any views on how to map Local Election results into National Polls?

NBeale - my sage advice is, don’t. See these wise, but far lengthier, words by Danny Finkelstein here.

Daily Politics says that with 20% votes counted in 14 constituencies Boris ahead in 10, Ken ahead in 4.

I am so looking forward to YouGov being able to say I told you so…

Anthony. Are you able to explain the discrepancy between Labour losses ,as shown by BBC and Sky(c.60seats)-a large percentage difference?

The BBC website is saying Boris ahead, turnout 45%, full results by 2030 or so.

Collin
Simple arithmetic, BBC treated all seats in new LA as gains.

May be midnight or after now before result. There were terrible problems with the counting machines in 2000. Looks like over an 8 year period nothing has been learnt.

Which company is it that has provided the machines? Neil Kinnock’s DRS?

Fluffy Thoughts (EDP)

Glad to see you have had the time to comment endlessly while many of us have been at work. In the spirit of reasonable debate I really think you have seriously wasted your time such are the lamentable quality of your contributions.

I don’t thing your belong on this board and I suggest you search ‘Tory Blogs’ where I’m sure you’ll find somewhere to say what you like, when you like and how you like.

Meanwhile back in the real world of the opinion polls, the real polls and real politics I’d like to see a poll of Labour MPs to see how many think that labour can never win whilst GB is still PM.

Looking at basic, down-to-earth policies, and as a Labour supporter (definitely not a GB supporter) I think a reduction of VAT to 15% paired with income tax at 50% for earnings over £150,000 would reassure core Labour voters and give most other voters something to feel good about. And where’s the money coming from……….well some from the 50% income tax and the rest from the growth in VAT revenues generally as the costs of VAT qwualifying goodss and products (such as fuel) rise

Peter Kellner to resign as head of YouGov if Boris fails to win.

David B:
Are you are good at economics as you are at spelling?
Is there any polling evidence that your suggestions are popular?
Fluffy admits (s)he is fluffy but her(?) contributions are quite fun. I can see that Lab supporters are not very happy today - but lighten up. It’s bad for democracy for one party to be in power for too long. Cameron is fundamentally nice and decent, and so are almost all his colleagues. Even I will admit that GB is sincere in his belief the He is the Right PM and genuinely wants to Do Good. I just wish that the culture of arrogant lies hadn’t taken hold, but that is partly to do with being in power for too long.

N Beale

Apologies for the typos which I hope didn’t detract too much from the sense of what I was saying. One of the nice things about a democratic and fairly individualistic society is the variety of views people have and express and whilst I think I’ve got a perfectly reasonable sense of humour I simply don’t find Fluffy’s comments of any value on this board.

As for evidence about the tax changes I suggest, I’m not in a position to commission a poll but I believe a VAT cut would be popular whilst a tax increase for earnings over £150,000 would no doubt bring howls of disapproval from so called opinion formers and other relatively rich people.

I’ve no idea how old you are but if you were politically aware in in 1989 were you saying the same about the Tories being in power for too long? On the matter of Cameron being a decent chap, well I just don’t agree and I don’t think that someone with his background has the hinterland to govern effectively; I didn’t particularly like Thatcher or Heath but at least they had some experience of a more ordinary lifestyle. On the matter of GB, I’m afraid that the years of plotting and planning to get the top job has warped his judgement on top of which his public persona isn’t particularly attractive whatever his private persona might be.

First Seat is Tory. Absolute Majority Loss of support from UKIP and Lib Dems. Labour Stable.

This could be interesting

If anyone is here, I’ve just had a quick (and possibly not accurate) count up of the first preference votes from the individual areas and think it is:

Johnson 43.2%
Livingstone 37%

Fluffy Thoughts (EDP)
David Botwell,

Glad to see you have had the time to comment endlessly while many of us have been at work. In the spirit of reasonable debate I really think you have seriously wasted your time such are the lamentable quality of your contributions.

[You hate commentary? Why…?]

I don’t thing your belong on this board and I suggest you search ‘Tory Blogs’ where I’m sure you’ll find somewhere to say what you like, when you like and how you like.

[Where you at Anthony’s wedding party as well…?]

Anthony set the rules, and I explained my purpose on Thursday night/Friday morning. By the way, who are you…? And please use FireFox, as it may improve your ability to send a cogent message…!

If your a number-cruncher realise this: we come here to debate (however badly). When we are upset/wrong, we withdraw, to reflect. I suggest you do the same - unless you are Anthony boss.

Anthony,

And can you stop calling them nEU-Labour. Something tells me it isn’t a term of endearment when you use it, so it doesn’t really add to non-pa{s|[r]}tisan discussion does it?

Point taken: my bad. Will desist. Party allegiances sometime get the better! [Tell D.B. I am not a Tory (anymore ). E.D.P. have their own agenda. Just like D.B….!]

David/Anthony,

My bad: should read “If you’re a number-cruncher…”. Ok, FireFox does have some limitations…!

David Bowtell said:

N Beale

Apologies for the typos which I hope didn’t detract too much from the sense of what I was saying.

Sorry, missed your apology….

As for evidence about the tax changes I suggest, I’m not in a position to commission a poll but I believe a VAT cut would be popular….

Geesh, Labour have refused a ban on the EU-Constitutional Referendum! Do you really think they would allow a vote on V.A.T. (which is a EU-tax)? I may be a nuisance, but I do try to keep in touch with reality…?